The ongoing euro crisis has never
been and will never be solved. The native European populations are shrinking
and this will have a consequence for the economy, production and public
finance. The demographic decline is the single most important economic
phenomenon.
We do not doubt that the annual visitors to
the Global Economic Forum in Davos are fully aware of it: they know that the
European and East Asian populations are decreasing and that 18 of the 20 top
economies will never experience sustainable growth again. The economic press
and mainstream analysts somehow do not get it and still believe that countries
that will see their native population shrinking by 30% in the next thirty years
can increase their GDP.
Italy is the next epicenter of the
demographic crisis. The ongoing
euro problems and the orchestrated mass migration into Italy are closely
related. Italian population began to dwindle last year, a situation that has
never happened in modern history. Without immigration, the Italian working-age
population will drop by at least 30% before the middle of the century. If the
productivity does not change and even if the Italians are able to balance their
budget, the consequences are unsolvable. [continue
reading after block]
- China will become a mature economy and the US will have a full rival
- Turkey – the next emerging Islamic Power
- The American dream is dying
Gefira
#24 gives in interesting insight into the world of tomorrow in which the
Eurasian continent will be the global pivot with China and Russia playing the
tune and the rest of the world toeing the line. The Old Continent will split
into a racial mix in the West and the White Man's habitat in the East. The
United States will see its final days of glory as a superpower, while Africa,
apart from experiencing a demographic explosion, will not undergo significant
changes, and its possible colonization by China or Turkey is doomed to failure.
The new geopolitical situation might be advantageous to such middle-sized
countries as Iran, Kazakhstan or Turkey, with the latter wanting to re-draw its
borders. The American economic dream is dying, and the rivalry between
Washington and Brussels is anything but over.
The Italian GDP will be smaller and
smaller in proportion to the fall in the number of the working-age population. Every working-age person in Italy is burdened with a
sixty-thousand-euro public debt and that amount will grow on average by nearly
a thousand euros a year because more people are leaving the working force than
entering. The debt to GDP ratio will be 200 percent by mid-century. We did not
yet factor in the outflow of young people that are looking for employment in
other European countries.
This scenario gives a good indication of the
problem Italy faces. In the coming years it is expected that the productivity
will go up, but the same holds good for the national debt which increased by 15
percent since 2012. All Western economies have arrived at the point where productivity
has to compensate for the decline in their populations. Italy is the
world’s ninth economy and is on a trajectory that in the long run will end in
an economic implosion comparable to the 1998 financial crisis in Argentina,
number 21 on the world GDP list.
Financial speculators as George Soros,
central bankers and part of the political establishment are fully aware of the
long-term perspective of the country and the consequences for Europe. If
Italy ditches the euro, the situation will be much worse than the 2008
financial crisis. Not only will the value of the euro collapse but investors,
business people and the general public will begin to doubt the viability of the
euro currency or fiat currency in general.
Politicians within the European Union try to
throw the hot potato to the next generation because they know that they will
not be able to contain the mayhem if push comes to shove. To deal with
the consequence of the ultimate euro crisis is not within their competence.
Italy does not have its own Central Bank and
the country cannot unilaterally suppress interest rates or buy its own debt.
Creating money out of thin air as the Japanese do is impossible for the Italian
political and monetary establishment.
Most politicians are not part of the wealthy
elite, so they do not run a risk of winning or losing any assets. They serve
their term (and the particular political purpose) and then they are rewarded
with a position at one of the irrelevant international organisations. It
is the financial and economic elites that will be crushed and lose their assets
during such a crisis, so In order to turn the tide they are desperately trying
to increase the working-age population in Europe by promoting and organising a
relentless stream of immigrants into the old continent. The mass
migration into Europe and the US and the financial state of affairs are not
unrelated incidents and it is no surprise that such speculators as Soros are
facilitating and promoting the re-population of Italy. Soros asserts that
Europe should accept half a million refugees annually on top of the regular
migration. Over years such an annual number of people will create a community
of refugees with the size of the German population.
There is no reason to believe migration from
Central Asia and Africa will compensate for the loss of native Europeans. Most
of these immigrants come from areas where people have other work ethic than
their European counterparts, they lack education and skills to be employable in
the Western economies. Unemployment among sub-Sahara Africans in
Western Europe is high while there is a high demand for low qualified
uneducated East and Central Europeans. For now, some Africans in Italy
will provide southern Italy with cheap slave labour in agriculture and the UN
and European assistance budget will even bless the region with the influx of
money for the charity industry. For the Italian society at large, the massive
influx of immigrants from Africa will be a disaster. It will destroy social
cohesion, increase government expenditure and fuel general discontent.
The Italians voted for a new policy that would stop fraudulent NGOs that are shipping another hundred thousand migrants this year to Italy. The two big winners of the last election wanted to send undocumented migrants back home and introduce a parallel currency.
The Italian President Sergio Mattarella
blocked the creation of a new government to protect the investors outside Italy
and give them the opportunity to proceed another year with the shipping
of Africans into Italy. It will not change the long-term perspective
and while economic academics still believes it is all about economics and
competitiveness, we’d rather say “It is the demographics, stupid”.
The Gefira financial
bulletin is a monthly periodical that the Gefira team releases ten times a
year. We give a clear projection of the future of energy and politics.From
Trump's election to the steep incline in oil price and the value of bitcoin, it
was all in the Gefira before it happened.
According to
the Gefira team, the next systemic crisis will happen around 2020 as the oil
price is back at 100 dollar and German mass retirement begin. There is a high
risk of war on the Old Continent. However, it is not Russia but Turkey that is
the most prominent threat.
It is not the emerging
markets, nor public or private debt that should be of interest to investors but
instead the shrinking populations in the developed world. Japan is the first
country that experiences a declining people, and for that reason, it pursued
extraordinary monetary and fiscal policies. The decrease in the
European and US population will have dire economic consequence, and after 2025
China will join the club of dying nations.
Apart from China and
Russia, economic growth in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia is dependent
on the developed countries which see a dramatic decline in their populations.
In the Gefira bulletin
we provide investment suggestions and give a coherent vision of the time ahead
from a macroeconomic perspective.
On our Website, we have
articles from our research team whereas in the Gefira Financial Bulletin we
give a comprehensive explanation of the coming world. We focus primarily on
economic, investment and strategic subjects. We focus on 2020 as the financial
breaking point.
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