2018/06/20 - Political Anticipation - A GEAB by LEAP Press review

The Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB 126 / June edition) is now online !  2020-2040: Exponential global development The world is on the brink of a wave of unprecedented development which is poised to sweep over the Middle East, Africa, India, Southeast Asia, the United States and the planet as a whole. The foundations on which this new world will be built are becoming clearer and clearer: A globalised electric grid, networks of financial centres, new commercial roads, crypto-currencies, e-economies, reinvented global governance etc. All these provide the infrastructure which will shape this unimaginable phase of multipolar and multiconnected development, which we will attempt to describe in the following paragraphs... Public announcement (free content) Chapters not to miss (registration required):  - Exponential or explo-sive? - E-economy: We haven't seen anything yet. - Cryptocurrencies... changing our relation to money. - Power/electrical energy supply: Optimisation of invariants. - Global Electricity Grid or World Energy Community. - Summary map of the Internet of tomorrow’s finance. - Urbanisation: Sheltering 2.5 billion new city dwellers. - Governance 4.0: Chinese or collaborative? - Old World: Other problematic issues. ______________________________________________ Geopolitics / Summer 2018: A leap into the unknown... with no safety net For the past two years, we have been witnessing the meticulous dismantling of the world order that has prevailed since 1945. Unable to adapt to new realities, this world order began to break up in 2001. However, in the last two years, the national units that make up this international system have made a decided exit from such constraining and obsolete structures. Obviously, Brexit is emblematic of this process. However, the phenomenon has accelerated a lot since that decision was made, as we shall see. Clearly, we are approaching a day of reckoning: Freed from their constraints, the nations are now floundering, with no fixed point in sight to cling to. We have already mentioned the risks of shakiness and panic reactions, potentially leading decision-makers to make bad decisions that are likely to produce dramatic chain reactions. We believe that this summer could see this kind of "accident". Everything seems to be gathering together for a perfect storm... Chapters not to miss (registration required):  - A floundering European Union. - A moribund NATO. - From the Gulf Cooperation Council to the Saudi-Emirati Coordination Council. - Remembrance of the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process. - Even OPEC! - A Summer full of perils. ______________________________________________ Europe 2019-2024: From an agricultural crisis to a food crisis? The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which is supposed to guarantee food independence and food quality for all Europeans, has been in crisis for many years without the citizens seeing any simple and coherent project appearing on the horizon of their common alimentary future. The issues are quite obvious however: European arable lands must produce food for the Europeans. As second priority, within the limits of the maintenance of a healthy agriculture (food quality) and respect for the environment, the surpluses can provide material for exportation. Agricultural production must be accessible to all on the continent and farmers should be able to live decently from their work... Chapters not to miss (registration required):  - Increasing interest shown by European citizens. - Principles of open competition with adverse effects not addressed. - Food autonomy threatened by Chinese investments and needs. - The dangers of new free trade agreements. - The gap between environmental objectives and policies. - Threats at every level. ______________________________________________ Investments, trends and recommendations A reminder that our recommendations are not for speculative purposes, therefore short-term, that they don’t aim to win more, but rather to lose less (or nothing at all) because in the case of a global systemic crisis like the one we are currently experiencing, this is actually the only rational objective. Advice not to miss (registration required):  - Chinese market: doors opening. - New banks: beware. - Real estate: Owning your home, it's over. - Your information system: diversify by sectors.