2018-11-01 Political Anticipation - A GEAB by LEAP Press review

The Global Systemic Crisis at the end of 2018: A day of reckoning… or How ASEAN will save the world
The reinforcement of the transatlantic relationship,[1] secret operations on all sides,[2] skirmishes between the Chinese and North Americans in the China Sea,[3] trade wars, hard rights rising, warning shots on financial markets[4]… It looks like the world is about to switch to “something completely different” (as the Monty Pythons would say). An explosion of markets? Cold War? Hot war? Or labour pains? We invite you to read carefully the ‘calendar of future events’ we are presenting in this bulletin. It clearly reveals that the October-November 2018 period represents a gigantic tipping point for the global systemic crisis that we have been analysing since 2006. Huge restructuring energies are emerging, particularly around ASEAN, in the context of US sanctions against Iran and with mid-term elections in the sights. All this is enough to upset the financial markets which do not know what sauce they will be served with... GEAB 128 - free excerpt

Forthcoming events – From 15 October 2018 to 15 February 2019
Fortunately, LEAP is here and its calendar of forthcoming events will save you again valuable time when reading the news in the coming months.
October/November - North-East Europe: Trident Juncture 18: NATO-led military exercise
45,000 soldiers, 150 aircraft, 70 vessels and around 10,000 vehicles: The Trident Juncture 18 Exercise, scheduled for the end of the month, will be the largest military manoeuvre organised by the Atlantic Alliance since the end of the Cold War. The enemy is imaginary...
Mid-October - Istanbul: Quartet Meeting about Syria
France, Germany, Russia and Turkey are expected to meet in Istanbul in mid-October to discuss the fate of Syria and Idlib in the context of a recent warming of EU-Turkey relations... GEAB 128

Oil, paper and smoke
If you mix oil with paper and throw in a match, what do you think it will happen? This short article is intended to add to our list of oil market features a phenomenon we began to discern last month, but which, in our view, is growing. Most importantly, this phenomenon brings us closer to a ‘day of reckoning’ with potentially cataclysmic consequences. Despite no longer being at the centre of the economic world, we know the degree to which oil remains the pillar of the international monetary and financial system based on the still resisting dollar. Not for long, though… GEAB 128

GAFAM: On their way home?
GAFAM (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft) have been the masters of the world, but this is coming to an end. Two phenomena are playing a part in this analysis. Firstly, their global monopoly is being challenged increasingly by the emergence of regional competition: In China, the BATX (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi) is spreading well beyond their borders; Europe is now better equipped to prevent its innovations from being systematically bought out by the Americans; Bengalore, the Indian Silicon Valley, will soon follow Europe's example, not to mention the dynamism coming from countries like Rwanda, Uganda or Ghana in Africa, or the Middle East ... GEAB 128

10 years of crisis: A return to GEAB's anticipations of 2006-2007
Currently, the media is marking 10 years of a crisis they didn’t see coming in the first place and questioning experts they did not listen to at the time (at best) or who became experts after its advent (at worst). Hence, it's time to recall that LEAP/E2020 and the GEAB were among the very few who first forecasted the crisis – in the midst of complete media indifference - with a degree of detail that was barely equalled. Every month during the two and a half years that separated LEAP's early anticipations from the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the GEAB put down one by one the development stages of the crisis. If the European media system was unable to focus on what a small independent European think tank without financial expertise was saying, we cannot say the same of people like you who are still reading us today... GEAB 128

Nuclear weapons: old dilemmas, new dangers
Nuclear weapons have posed a challenge to international security since 1945. Today that challenge looms as large as ever. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty has been under severe threat for many years and even more so today. North Korea’s nuclear weapons threaten the global security order and our multilateral system, and Iran’s nuclear activities could form a potential threat. Implementation of arms control treaties is being challenged as well. The way these problems are resolved will have an impact that is felt far into the future... EUObserver

Iraq To Stop Oil Exports To Iran In Compliance With U.S. Sanctions
With a week to go until U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil snap back, it’s not only Iranian crude exports that the United States looks to cut. Iran’s neighbor Iraq currently trucks small volumes of crude oil from its northern Kirkuk oil field to Iran in exchange for Tehran delivering the same amount of its oil to Iraq’s southern ports. In November, Iraq will halt trucking of oil to Iran to comply with the U.S. sanctions, five sources with knowledge of Iraqi oil export plans told Reuters last week... OilPrice

After Germany’s Merkel Comes Chaos
After a long, initially-successful run promoting European integration and mass immigration, German Chancellor Angela Merkel saw the bottom fall out of her political fortunes this year. This morning she stepped down as leader of the formerly-dominant Christian Democrat party and promised not run again when her term as Chancellor ends in 2021. What happens next is almost certain to be chaotic, as the following chart (courtesy of this morning’s Wall Street Journal) makes clear… Dollar Collapse

‘Rome Says Enough!’: Thousands protest city’s decline
Romans are counting on their mayor to resign as the city falls into a steep decline in both safety and public services. Besides its crumbling infrastructure, the city is also reeling from the brutal murder of a teenager. Some 8,000 Romans took to the streets of the Italian capital on Saturday to protest the “decline” of their city under Mayor Virginia Raggi. They were also protesting a rise in crime highlighted by the recent rape and murder of a 16-year-old girl... Deutsche Welle

This driverless tech start-up aims to replace 15 million truckers in the US and China
Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) start-up TuSimple has deployed autonomous trucks on commercial runs between Tucson and Phoenix in Arizona and Las Vegas, Nevada, as the company prepares to expand its operations in the world’s two largest economies by next year. That trial programme in the US, where its two trucks transport consumer goods at speeds of up to 104.6 kilometres per hour (65mph) on their routes, is generating about US$6,600 a week in revenue and given TuSimple a toehold in the vast US freight market, said Chen Mo, the company’s co-founder and chief executive... SCMP

Game Changers in a Digital Future
Martin Shanahan, CEO of IDA Ireland and sponsor of the event, had a clear message for business leaders in the room: “These technologies hold the potential to utterly transform sectors, and in our engagement with clients we’re trying to understand what those changes might be, how they can apply these technologies and how Ireland can be at the forefront of these technologies.” ... Bloomberg

2018/09/24 - Political Anticipation - A LEAP Press review (GEAB special)

Focus on the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin
GEAB 127 - September edition, is online !
Not a regular reader yet? Register here

What will the transatlantic relationship prepared by Donald Trump look like?
The multi-polarisation of the planet is currently going through a bipolarisation phase, something we anticipated in 2009, if Europe could not reposition itself intelligently, taking clear account of the great global geopolitical reconfiguration.
Having dealt with the Middle East (without success, so far, since Iran has not yet yielded – but it’s only in November that the sanctions will be applied), Donald Trump’s United States began to make a serious effort to rebuild the transatlantic relationship it needs to secure its economic recovery and attempt to maintain its dominance in the face of China’s growing influence.
With his famous ‘trade war’, D. Trump has indeed effected this bipolarisation between two worlds, Chinese and American... (GEAB 127 - read the public announcement)

Towards a New TTIP
The EU-US negotiations could then start defining the terms of the new agreement. The negotiations will be led by the United States, but the context will be the broad transatlantic NAFTA-EU relationship following a bloc-to-bloc bilateral approach that may actually benefit both Americans and Europeans. Until now, hypocrisy has really prevailed in transatlantic matters since, in order to keep the upper hand, the United States has tended to treat Europe as a group of small countries rather than as a bloc. Yet the single European market was indeed the issue. This situation has not been conducive to clarity. On the other side, as soon as the EU tries to treat the US as an equal (as in the context of the TTIP negotiations) nothing succeeds, especially because the EU-US trade pairing is too favourable to the EU... (GEAB 127 - Log in)

The protagonists of the strengthening of the transatlantic relationship
It goes without saying that, at least at first, the strengthening of the transatlantic relationship will be to the detriment of our relations with Russia and China, especially as this reinforcement has literally been conceived in reaction to the influence of these two countries at the world level. It will also be at the expense of building the various tools of European sovereignty: money, defence, etc. But it is clear that the European states are increasingly unable, despite the urgency of these matters, to agree on anything. We have seen how Northern Europe has welcomed Macron's eurozone governance project. European defence projects divide Europe more than anything else – between Americanists, ‘Russianists’ and independentists... (GEAB 127 - Log in)

The challenge of the institutionalisation of cryptocurrencies
While the wave of buzz and hype around cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies, is running out of steam among people in general, the movement that has emerged remains robust. The versatility of the technology, its deployment in a digital context which can quickly reach millions of people, its potentially anonymous character and the place it could take in the global financial system, cause people to dream or to tremble depending on the circumstances and the role that they have. The dream, for many, is nourished by the fact that this network is full of innovation, promises of fluidification of society, disintermediation... It attracts a large number of investors from all directions; from financial institutions to individual citizens attracted by its potential uses and/or price volatility...(GEAB 127 - Log in)

China’s one belt, one road initiative: Impact on Europe’s neglected railway system
Europe is in love with low-cost air transport. Over the past few years the low-budget end of air transport has boomed, both globally and in Europe. Few other sectors are growing as fast. More people than ever are choosing air transport over the railways, despite the fact that Europe still has one of the best railway systems in the world. The recent case of Air Berlin’s bankruptcy shows clearly what is wrong with the system. The low-cost air carrier, easyJet, was quick to acquire some of Air Berlin’s domestic flights, including the lucrative Berlin-Munich route. Within a few days of signing the deal, Berlin’s outdoor advertising turned an aggressive orange, advertising weekend trips to the rich Bavarian capital and the nearby Alps. This news would be of little note...(GEAB 127 - Log in)

Investments, trends and recommendations
Paris: watch out!
Between ‘Grand Paris’, world capital of luxury, European financial hub and the Olympic city in 2024, Paris is about to rise through the ranks. The sleeping beauty of recent decades has continued to grow without anyone noticing. Since 1965, Greater London has allowed London to line up figures and sales pitches while the 2 million inhabitants of the French capital did no longer impress anyone. Despite the in fact 12 million inhabitants of the Paris metropolitan area (identical to the population of Greater London), Greater Paris is struggling to really emerge... (GEAB 127 - Log in)

Emerging countries: Taking the plunge in Yuan waters
To a certain extent, China has been getting rid of its dollars by investing them in the Silk Road and in Africa. With the Fed's interest rate rise, the debts of emerging countries to China (as well as the prices of commodities) are exploding and those countries facing increasing difficulties with repayment are seeing China recover their assets (through harbours, dams, bridges etc.). This is how the media came to be full of the rebellion that was smouldering against predatory Chinese investors. Will these countries turn their backs on China as a result? ... (GEAB 127 - Log in)

Raw materials: Oops!
Despite the optimism shown in the previous paragraph, we do not recommend raw materials at this time. In fact, the dollar-denominated commodity market will lose customers. With countries struggling to afford commodities denominated in dollars or starting to buy their raw materials directly in Yuan, the decline in dollar prices could be sustained... (GEAB 127 - Log in)

New finance: yours to experiment with
GEAB has a tradition of never giving speculative advice. That being said, we believe it is now advisable to register for an online financial platform, to benefit from the training that these platforms offer and to invest small amounts whilst still being ready to lose them. Do not put yourself in the hands of your banker, however, but... (GEAB 127 - Log in)

_________________________________________________

Lessons of Political Anticipation : Changing mindsets with regards to the future, by Marie-Hélène Caillol
LEAP’s original method of political anticipation is a lot about pedagogy and changing mindsets. Mindsets in this regard can be changed along the following building-process of future-related awareness:
The first teaching it wishes to teach is that the future plays a greater role in our XXIst century than it ever has in the known-past, thus deserving greater concern. And that this concern for the future shouldn’t be left, as it used to be before, in the hands of sorcerers, priests, chiefs or experts. It is a matter of good-governance that decision-makers as well as citizens are given tools to rationalize the future, with a view to both feel entitled to produce and improve their forward-looking analyses and to refine their critical sense when being presented forward-looking contents (by media, politicians, their banker ... (LEAP 2020)