viernes, 22 de enero de 2016

2016/01/22 Anticipación Política, Revista de Prensa - LEAP / Europe 2020

El gran regreso de la Europa oscura

Aquí llega, creciendo lentamente, la «bestia inmunda». Hace mucho tiempo, en 1998, Franck Biancheri, nuestro llorado director de estudios, firmó una anticipación titulada: “2009, cuando Europa termina en las manos de los nietos de Hitler, Pétain, Mussolini …” Este es el destino que anticipó para la UE en caso de que no lograra democratizarse. El fracaso es un hecho patente. Y el proceso ya ha sido desencadenado. Como escribimos, más recientemente, la ola de migrantes, seguida por los atentados terroristas, ha generado grandes choques en la UE durante 2015, una UE, ya debilitada por la crisis de la moneda euro y la crisis entre la UE y Rusia, que resiste. Las tendencias progresistas y reaccionarias estuvieron equilibradas hasta septiembre...
(GEAB No 100 (communicado) http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8GBgQdCwgeVVUGBgU)

Draghi dice que el BCE está decidido y dispuesto a actuar

El presidente del Banco Central Europeo, Mario Draghi, dijo el viernes que el banco tenía numerosos instrumentos a su disposición para elevar la inflación y estaba tanto determinado como dispuesto a actuar para cumplir su mandato. "Tenemos gran cantidad de instrumentos (...) y sobre todo tenemos la determinación y la voluntad y la capacidad del Consejo de Gobierno de actuar y desplegar estos instrumentos"...
(Reuters  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABwQdCwgeVVUGBgU)

Francia y Holanda alertan de que la crisis migratoria amenaza con romper la UE

La llegada de refugiados ha abierto una crisis mucho más profunda de lo que pudiera parecer en el seno de la UE. Tanto como para ser “la mayor amenaza de ruptura” de la Unión, en palabras del primer ministro francés, Manuel Valls. Su homólogo holandés ratificó este jueves la urgencia del desafío y fijó un plazo de “seis u ocho semanas” como límite para encontrar una solución al flujo de refugiados y salvar Schengen...
(El País http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABwUdCwgeVVUGBgU)

Merkel busca la ayuda de Turquía para reducir el flujo de migrantes

La canciller alemana, Angela Merkel, criticada en su país y aislada en Europa, intenta este viernes lograr el apoyo de Turquía para reducir el flujo de migrantes, en un momento en el que nuevos naufragios enlutan el mar Egeo. Al menos 44 víctimas, entre ellas 20 niños, perecieron en tres naufragios sucesivos entre las costas de Turquía y Grecia. Varios migrantes están desaparecidos, según la policía portuaria griega, que los busca activamente...
(Yahoo http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABwodCwgeVVUGBgU)

Davos, o la urgencia de una transición completa

Este relato, hegemónico e indiscutible, de lo que tiene que ser la economía lleva dominando la política durante décadas. Y es sin duda responsable directo de la desigualdad, la pobreza, el cambio climático y el deterioro de nuestras democracias. Recién aterrizada en la política institucional, veo con optimismo la gran oportunidad de cambiar las cosas que tenemos por delante...
(El Diario http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABwsdCwgeVVUGBgU)

La Comisión Europea bloquea las subvenciones a proyectos de Acuamed

La Comisión Europea ha bloqueado todos los pagos de subvenciones con fondos europeos a proyectos gestionados por Acuamed, la empresa pública investigada por el juez de la Audiencia Nacional Eloy Velasco por fraude en distintas obras hidrológicas (desaladoras, conducciones de agua...) en la costa mediterránea. Bruselas ha ordenado suspender todos ...
(El País http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8AAAIdCwgeVVUGBgU)

Comparación entre España y otros países: así han bajado la gasolina y el petróleo

Los precios del petróleo han caído más de un 60% desde enero de 2013 hasta diciembre de 2015, mientras que la gasolina ha caído de media en varios países desarrollados alrededor de un 20%. Japón es el país de la muestra en el que menos ha bajado el precio de los combustibles (un 13%), mientras en EEUU es donde más ha bajado (un 37%). En España, los combustibles han bajado alrededor de un 23%, una caída superior a la de Alemania, Francia o Reino Unido, según publica el banco suizo UBS...
(El Economista http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8AAAMdCwgeVVUGBgU)

Opinión: Austria y el efecto dominó

Después de Suecia, ahora Austria también limita la entrada de refugiados.
Si Alemania sigue el ejemplo austríaco, se puede producir una catástrofe en la ruta de los Balcanes, opina Bernd Riegert. Austria activó el freno de emergencia y puso un límite máximo al ingreso de refugiados y solicitantes de asilo...
(Deutsche Welle http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8FBgEdCwgeVVUGBgU,,18472405_303,00.jpg)

Moody's podría rebajar el rating a 120 firmas energéticas por la caída del crudo

La agencia de calificación Moody's situó a gran parte del sector del gas y el petróleo en revisión a la baja, mientras el hundimiento de más del 70 por ciento de los precios del petróleo en los últimos 18 meses ha arrastrado también a las acciones de las empresas energéticas. Las revisiones afectan a empresas de gas y petróleo de todo el mundo, incluyendo EEUU y Canadá, América Latina y la región de Asia y Pacífico, además de Europa, Oriente Próximo y África...
(Reuters http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8AAAEdCwgeVVUGBgU)

Cómo la recesión en Brasil está arrastrando al resto de los países de América Latina
Brasil es la novena economía mundial, representa un tercio del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de América Latina, es el primer socio comercial de los aíses del Mercosur (con excepción de Venezuela) y figura entre los cinco primeros socios de la mayoría de las naciones de la región. Con más de 200 millones de habitantes, es un polo de atracción para las llamadas "multilatinas" (empresas latinas que han crecido a escala internacional) y otras multinacionales con base en América Latina...
(BBC http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8AAAYdCwgeVVUGBgU)

Las acciones de Petrobras se disparan un 6,7% ante la recuperación del petróleo


Las acciones en la Bolsa de Sao Paulo de la petrolera semiestatal brasileña, Petrobras, aumentaron su precio un 6,68 por ciento en un día marcado por la recuperación del precio del petróleo en el mercado internacional. Con un precio de 31,16 dólares el barril de Brent, las acciones ordinarias de Petrobras recobraron un valor de 6,29 reales (1,53 dólares) después de acumular una semana de continuas caídas en las que llegaron a bajar muy por debajo de los 5 reales (1,21 dólares) por acción, marcando el precio más bajo desde agosto 2003...
(Sputnik http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8AAAcdCwgeVVUGBgU)

Arabia Saudita e Irán: el petróleo como arma

Si los problemas de tu país se convierten en crisis, enfila hacia uno de tus enemigos, parecen decir los sauditas. Las dificultades que les esperan son enormes, sobre todo a causa de la caída en los precios del petróleo.
(Deutsche Welle
http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8FBgEdCwgeVVUGBgU,,15663837_303,00.jpg)

China descarta nueva devaluación de moneda

Davos, Suiza.-El vicepresidente de China dijo el jueves a Bloomberg News que su Gobierno no tiene intenciones de devaluar el yuan. "Las fluctuaciones en los mercados de divisas son el resultado de fuerzas del mercado y el Gobierno chino no tiene intenciones ni una política para devaluar su moneda", dijo Li Yuanchao a Bloomberg en una entrevista durante la reunión anual del Foro Económico Mundial en Davos, Suiza...

jueves, 21 de enero de 2016

2016/01/21 Anticipación Política, Revista de Prensa - LEAP / Europe 2020

2016 - Alerta sobre el dólar, la crisis financiera, el petróleo, los bancos … gran retirada táctica frente al inminente “aterrizaje forzoso”

Nuestro equipo ha optado por colocar 2016 bajo el signo de una “gran retirada táctica”, que afecta a todos los niveles de la organización social, comenzando por supuesto con los niveles nacionales, pero no sólo ellos. Esta retirada o repliegue no representará aún en 2016 el final de la movilidad global, de los intercambios internacionales o de Internet, y el mundo seguirá siendo una aldea global. Sin embargo, veremos cómo se levantarán muros, la implementación de nuevas regulaciones, el control de flujos, el rearme de los ejércitos, la fragmentación de mercados… todo esto no a nivel internacional, ya que el fracaso de la reforma de la gobernanza mundial es patente, sino sobre la base de las únicas entidades políticas disponibles en el mercado: los Estados nacionales, los grupos religiosos y étnicos, ciertas organizaciones supranacionales y locales. Es el final de la gran orgía mundial; todo el mundo se va a casa … con una buena resaca...
(GEAB No 101 / LEAP http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABAQdBAAeVVUGBgU)

Crisis mundial. Encaminados hacia al mundo de mañana

¿Qué conflictos puede generar este mundo post-crisis? ¿Cómo prepararse para los trastornos económicos y monetarios de los próximos años?
¿Cómo podemos y debemos hacerles frente en tanto franceses y europeos?
¿Cómo interactuarán las potencias emergentes, Brasil, India, Rusia y por cierto China encabezándolos? ¿Con qué dificultades estos países gestionarán su ascenso? ¿Cómo pueden nuestros hijos posicionarse para prepararse ante este mundo post-crisis, como ciudadanos y como profesionales?
Estas son algunas de las preguntas que este libro intenta responder...
(Anticipolis
http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABAUdBAAeVVUGBgU)

Reino Unido, Francia y España respaldan reelección de Lagarde al FMI

Reino Unido, Francia y España dijeron el jueves que respaldarán a la francesa Christine Lagarde para un segundo mandato como directora gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional. Lagarde no tiene rivales obvios y ha dicho que está abierta a otro mandato. Pero el mes pasado, un tribunal francés ordenó abrir juicio contra ella por su papel en el pago de cerca de 400 millones de euros al empresario Bernard Tapie...
(Reuters http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABAodBAAeVVUGBgU)

Cuando el petróleo cae la economía crece, pero esta vez puede ser diferente

Expertos y economistas habían coincidido en señalar como positivos los efectos de la caída del precio del petróleo para la economía mundial.
Sin embargo, ahora que el descenso del oro negro se ha convertido en un batacazo, las opiniones del algunos expertos son radicalmente opuestas: "El petróleo lastrará la economía...
(El Economista http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABAsdBAAeVVUGBgU)

2016: el portazo de la UE a los refugiados

En medio de una ola masiva de llegadas de refugiados a Europa, de dramáticos naufragios y muertes diarias, la fotografía del niño sirio Aylán, muerto en una playa de Lesbos en septiembre sacudió conciencias y llevó a la UE a dar un golpe de timón en su política migratoria, aunque sin resultados visibles todavía...
(El Periodico http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABQIdBAAeVVUGBgU)

¿Cuáles son los países con más sanciones internacionales ahora que se levantó el castigo económico a Irán?

Las sanciones impuestas por Naciones Unidas, Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea a Irán por cuenta de su programa nuclear fueron levantadas durante el fin de semana. Levantan las sanciones internacionales contra Irán tras cumplir con el acuerdo nuclear. Aunque la decisión de EE.UU. de imponer casi inmediatamente nuevas sanciones -de alcance mucho más limitado- no termina de sacar al gobierno de Teherán de la lista de países que enfrentan castigos internacionales...
(BBC Mundo http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABQMdBAAeVVUGBgU)

Suecia: Incapacidad de Europa ante crisis refugiados pone en riesgo Schengen

El primer ministro de Suecia, Stefan Lofven, dijo hoy 21 de enero del 2016 que la incapacidad mostrada hasta ahora por Europa para responder de forma conjunta a la problemática de los refugiados pone en riesgo al bloque comunitario y a su sistema de libre tránsito de personas, conocido como espacio Schengen....
(El Comercio http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABQAdBAAeVVUGBgU)

George Soros: "La Unión Europea está al borde del colapso"

"No, no espero que esto sea otro 2008", decía ayer Nouriel Roubini. Una idea que contrasta con la percepción que tiene George Soros sobre los últimos acontecimientos y que, en una entrevista a The New York Review, ha avisado de que la Unión Europea se encuentra al borde del colapso...
(El Economista http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABQEdBAAeVVUGBgU)

Los coches más seguros de Europa en 2015

El coche más seguro de 2015, con un resultado de 100% en sistemas de seguridad y un 97% en protección de adultos, es el Volvo XC90, seguido por Mercedes GLC, Infiniti Q30 y Jaguar XF. EuroNCAP es un organismo independiente que cada año hace cientos pruebas de choque con los coches nuevos que llegan al mercado europeo para determinar su grado de seguridad.
Y cada año hace públicos los resultados de los vehículos que han obtenido las mejores puntuaciones en sus respectivas categorías...
(El Confidencial http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABQYdBAAeVVUGBgU)

Las Bolsas europeas se animan tras la comparecencia de Mario Draghi

El Ibex se dispara un 2,5% después de que el presidente de BCE dijese que el instituto emisor reconsiderará su política monetaria en marzo. La comparecencia del presidente del BCE, Mario Draghi, tras la reunión del consejo de gobierno de la entidad anima las Bolsas europeas. Hasta el inicio de la rueda de prensa, los principales índices europeos, entre ellos el Ibex 35, apenas subían unas décimas sin grandes referencias...
(El País
http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABQcdBAAeVVUGBgU)

Poroshenko aborda con EEUU medidas para parar el Nord Stream 2

El presidente de Ucrania, Petró Poroshenko, y el vicepresidente de EEUU, Joe Biden, abordaron los pasos a dar para impedir el desarrollo del proyecto ruso-europeo Nord Stream 2. La información apareció en la cuenta de Twitter del líder ucraniano...
(Sputnik http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABQQdBAAeVVUGBgU)

Las inyecciones de dinero en China podrían sustituir recortes de reservas bancarias

Las medidas del banco central de China para inyectar más de 600.000 millones de yuanes (83.547 millones de euros) en liquidez antes de las festividades del Año Nuevo Lunar podrían sustituir un recorte en la cantidad de dinero que los bancos deben mantener como reservas, dijo el jueves el economista jefe del Banco Popular de China en citas reproducidas por un diario...
(Reuters http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABQUdBAAeVVUGBgU)

¿Cuál es el coste económico de blindar Europa? 3.000 millones de euros al año

Europa se blinda ante la crisis migratoria. Una estrategia que, según el presidente de la Comisión Europea, Jean-Claude Juncker, costará unos 3.000 millones de euros al año en pérdida de negocio. Alemania admite que no puede acoger a todos los refugiados que lleguen a Europa y apunta a la necesidad de limitar el número de entradas a territorio germano; Austria anuncia que solo aceptará a la mitad de migrantes que entraron en el país en 2015, reduciendo el porcentaje en los próximos años hasta ...
(El Confidencial http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8ABQodBAAeVVUGBgU)

Paz en Colombia: “nueva página en la historia”

El Parlamento Europeo aprobó por unanimidad apoyar el proceso de paz en Colombia. DW recogió opiniones sobre cómo se logró, las fortalezas y debilidades de la resolución y el proceso mismo. El apoyo del Parlamento Europeo al proceso de paz en Colombia, plasmado en una resolución conjunta a favor de fondos para el posconflicto, es unánime. No fue necesario votarla. Un hito de consenso entre los grupos políticos...

martes, 19 de enero de 2016

2016/01/19 Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

2016 - Red alert on the dollar, financial crisis, oil, banks… General strategic retreat in the perspective of an imminent “hard landing

Our team has chosen to place 2016 under the sign of a “general strategic retreat”, affecting all levels of social organization, starting of course with the national levels, but not only. This retreat (or fallback) will not yet represent in 2016 the end of the global mobility, of the international exchanges or of the internet, and the world will still be a global village this year. Nevertheless, we will see walls getting built, regulations being imposed, flows getting controlled, armies strengthened, markets fragmented … all this not on an international basis, since the failure of the global governance reform is striking, but on the basis of the only available political entities on the market: nation states, religious and ethnic groups, certain supra-national organizations...
(GEAB 101 - Public Announcement  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAwUdBA4eVVUGBgU)

World crisis. The Path to the World Afterwards (A book written by Franck
Biancheri)


What conflicts can this world-after-the-crisis generate? How to prepare for monetary and economic upheavals coming up in the next few years? How can we and should we cope as Europeans? How will interact the emerging powers such as Brazil, India, Russia and China in the first place? What difficulties will these countries meet on their way up? How can our children position themselves to prepare for this world after, as citizens and as professionals? These are some of the questions that this book tries to answer by providing leads for reflection and action to the individual as much as to the group. Becaus this crisis we are experiencing is not only the end of the “world before”, it is also an unprecedented opportunity to rebuild a “world after”...
(Anticipolis  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAwodBA4eVVUGBgU)

A world divided - Elites descend on Swiss Alps amid rising inequality

Politicians and business leaders gathering in the Swiss Alps this week face an increasingly divided world, with the poor falling further behind the super-rich and political fissures in the United States, Europe and the Middle East running deeper than at any time in decades. Just 62 people, 53 of them men, own as much wealth as the poorest half of the entire world population and the richest 1 percent own more than the other 99 percent put together...
(Reuters  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAwsdBA4eVVUGBgU)

Big banks brace for oil loans to implode

Firms on Wall Street helped bankroll America's energy boom, financing very expensive drilling projects that ended up flooding the world with oil. Now that the oil glut has caused prices to crash below $30 a barrel, turmoil is rippling through the energy industry and souring many of those loans...
(CNN 
http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HDAIdBA4eVVUGBgU)

China, The Locus of the Next Financial Crisis? Imploding Stock Markets,
Slowing Real Economy


What's happening in China? Is it becoming the locus of the next financial crisis? Some well positioned capitalists are beginning to suggest so, including no less than that guru of global hedge fund and financial speculators, George Soros. The Bank of Central Banks, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) in Geneva, is saying the same; so too are a growing list of research departments of major global banks ,like UBS and Societe General in Europe...
(Global Research  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HDAMdBA4eVVUGBgU)

Global Financial Crisis Likely Averted……For Now

The stock bloodbath has ended, as indicated by Tuesday's trading in Europe, amidst optimistic anticipations of aggressive stimulus from Beijing and the US Federal Reserve, meaning another financial crisis will have to wait until the regulators run out of options...
(Sputnik International  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HDAAdBA4eVVUGBgU)

Oil rebounds on record Chinese demand, oversupply caps gains

Brent crude oil prices rebounded about 3 percent on Tuesday from 12-years lows after data showed Chinese oil demand likely hit a record high in 2015, but the recovery was not expected to last amid warnings that the market would stay oversupplied this year. Analysts also attributed much of the bounce from under $28 a barrel to a brief short covering rally after oil prices crashed over 20 percent this year...
(Reuters  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HDAEdBA4eVVUGBgU)

Schengen to fail in months if migration crisis not 'under control,' says
Tusk


A top EU official has warned that the outcome of the migration crisis could lead to the EU failing "as a political project." The statement comes as Germany's FM said closing the country's borders is not a solution...


(Deutsche Welle  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HDAYdBA4eVVUGBgU)

German minister criticises Merkel's 'friendly face' on migrants

Germany must be ready to "prepare a plan B" against the mass arrival of migrants and be ready to close its borders, German transport minister Alexander Dobrindt has said, in a direct challenge to chancellor Angela Merkel's policy. "We need a quick change in the situation," Dobrindt said...
(EUObserver  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HDAcdBA4eVVUGBgU)

US, EU warned of huge fallout if no data protection deal by January 31

The top US and European trade groups have warned their leaders of enormous fallout for businesses and customers if the two sides fail to reach a new deal on data transfers by end January. The European Court of Justice in October ruled that the EU-US "Safe Harbour" arrangement allowing firms to transfer European citizens' personal information to the United States was "invalid"...
(EUBusiness  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HDAQdBA4eVVUGBgU)

Towards a Putinisation of Central Europe?

If the eurozone crisis stoked great divisions between northern and southern Europe, the ongoing migrant crisis has already led to sharp conflict between western and central Europe. While Germany under chancellor Angela Merkel, at least initially, pushed to welcome the refugees and institute an EU plan to redistribute them, many central European governments were overwhelmingly opposed to receiving them...
(EUObserver  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HDAUdBA4eVVUGBgU)

IEA Sees Risk of World Drowning in Oil

Global oil markets could “drown in oversupply,” sending prices even lower as demand growth slows and Iran revives exports with the end of sanctions, according to the International Energy Agency. The IEA trimmed 2016 estimates for global oil demand as China's economic expansion weakens and raised forecasts for supplies outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries...
(Bloomberg  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HDAodBA4eVVUGBgU )

Iran vice-president hails new era after removal of sanctions

The lifting of sanctions on Iran on Saturday marks a new era in bilateral relations between Tehran and Washington, one of the country's vice-presidents has said, adding that further rapprochement is contingent on how the US goes about fulfilling its commitments under last summer's nuclear accord...
(The Guardian  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HDAsdBA4eVVUGBgU)

America, Your Credit Rating Stinks ... Unless you live in Silicon Valley or
parts of New York and Chicago, in which case congratulations are in order.


They are home to the nation's credit elite, and they have another thing in common: the tech industry. Certain neighborhoods on the West Coast boast residents with some of the best credit, according to a new report by free credit score site Credit Sesame. Those zip codes1 include the main stomping grounds of Microsoft, Yahoo!, and Google...
(Bloomberg  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HDQIdBA4eVVUGBgU)

Brazil Has Fallen Into Its Worst Recession Since 1930s

Brazil, world-famous for its carnival celebrations in Rio and elsewhere, is canceling the festivities this year. As the Financial Times reports, across the country towns and cities “are being forced to scrap the annual carnival parade as the country is braced for what is expected to be the worst recession since at least the 1930s.”...

domingo, 17 de enero de 2016

2016/01/13 Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

Immigration : the third rogue wave shatters the EU ship as we have known it

In this article, we will endeavour to put the European migration crisis into a global context in order to give the right perspective on the problem, then we will make the link, a priori counter intuitive, between migratory flows and the economic crises in the host countries, we will also attempt a series of recommendations and show that any mismanagement will lead to a further collapse of the European image in the world and the concomitant lasting loss of all influence...
(Extract, GEAB 97 < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAgEdBA0eVVUGBgU>)
The emergence of eurocitizens, a book by Franck Biancheri

Precisely 30 years ago, in 1985, in a Europe that was wrapping up its economic union and beginning to put its political integration into perspective, Franck Biancheri contributed significantly to the challenge of forming new generations of Euro-citizens by creating AEGEE-Europe. And two years later, to prove that Europe indeed had a huge need of Euro-Citizens, AEGEE, still under Franck's leadership, enabled the adoption of the ERASMUS program, today's undisputed flagship of the European construction...at the time blocked by national administrations. Keeping that in mind, Franck
Biancheri then on relentlessly fought for the democratization of the EU... not for moral reasons, but for very practical ones: just like Erasmus would never have seen the light of day without AEGEE students, Europe would get nowhere without the European citizens...
(Anticipolis < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAgYdBA0eVVUGBgU>)

Rotterdam mayor: Muslim migrants must respect EU laws

Ahmed Aboutaleb, the Moroccan mayor of Rotterdam, has a simple message for migrants in the wake of the Cologne sex attacks and the Paris murders: respect the law in your host state, or go home. Speaking to press in the Dutch port city last Friday (8 January), he said: “If you want to pick up a Dutch passport just to travel without a visa then give it up. I'm not giving you a passport. I'm giving you an identity...
(EUObserver < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAgcdBA0eVVUGBgU>)

German Terror Deaths Draw Merkel Closer to Mideast Turmoil

Chancellor Angela Merkel is being drawn deeper into the Middle East's turmoil with the suspected suicide bombing that killed at least 10 Germans in Istanbul, her country's biggest death toll in a terror attack in almost 14 years. The assault on tourists in the Turkish metropolis adds to pressure on Merkel as some in her coalition demand a cap on a record influx of refugees and New Year's Eve...
(Bloomberg < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAgQdBA0eVVUGBgU>)

Kosovo mess: Made in the EU

On 25 August, Kosovo and Serbia signed the second “landmark” deal toward “normalisation of relations.” Building on an earlier accord, it clarifies arrangements for the Association/Community of Serb Municipalities (ASM) in Kosovo. The EU and Kosovo, back in 2013, said the initial agreement was a “historic deal” which would clear the path for Kosovo's EU integration...
(EUObserver < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAgUdBA0eVVUGBgU>)

„For me, it is not borders that matter“

BILD: Mr President, 25 years ago, we celebrated the end of the Cold War.
Now we have just had a year of more crises and wars than ever before. What went so horribly wrong in the relationship between Russia and the West?
Vladimir Putin: That is the big question. We have done everything wrong...
(Bild.de <
http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAgodBA0eVVUGBgU>)

EU launches first-ever rule of law review against Poland


The European Commission has launched a probe into policy changes in Poland that may clash with EU law. It is the first time such a move has been initiated by the EU against a member state...
(Deutsche Welle < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAgsdBA0eVVUGBgU>)

Beware the great 2016 financial crisis, warns leading City pessimist

The City of London's most vocal “bear” has warned that the world is heading for a financial crisis as severe as the crash of 2008-09 that could prompt the collapse of the eurozone. Albert Edwards, strategist at the bank Société Générale, said the west was about to be hit by a wave of deflation from emerging market economies and that central banks were unaware of the disaster about to hit them...
(The Guardian < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAwIdBA0eVVUGBgU>)

GE Plans to Cut 6,500 Jobs in Europe After Alstom Purchase

General Electric Co. plans to eliminate about 6,500 jobs in Europe, citing waning demand for gas and steam turbines in the region as it integrates Alstom SA's energy units into its operations. The cuts include 765 positions in France and 1,700 in Germany, Renaud Petitjean, a GE spokesman in Paris, said on Wednesday...
(Bloomberg < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAwMdBA0eVVUGBgU>)

EU commission: Belgian tax rulings are 'illegal'

The European Commission said on Monday that it considers Belgium's tax scheme on excess profit "illegal" and that the country will have to recover around €700 million from 35 multinational companies. "The scheme allowed companies to pay substantially less tax simply because they are multinationals and could benefit from alleged synergies," competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager said at a press conference...
(EUOBS < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAwAdBA0eVVUGBgU>)

How China could trigger a global crisis

When China sneezes, the rest of the world might not catch a cold, but it does feel bad for a couple of days. The question, though, is whether China is sicker than it seems and how contagious that would be for the global economy. In other words, is China's latest stock market selloff — the Shanghai index lost 15 percent of its value in the past six days — and currency devaluation just a blip or the beginning of a bust..
(Washington Post < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAwEdBA0eVVUGBgU>)

China Dec. exports, imports fall much less than expected after yuan slides


China's total trade fell in December but far less than expected, with exports outperforming many of its regional peers after the country let the yuan depreciate sharply, highlighting fears of a currency war among Asia's trade-reliant economies. "The trade data support our view that, despite turmoil in Chinese financial markets, there has not been a major deterioration in its economy in recent months," Daniel Martin, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, said in a note...
(Reuters < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAwYdBA0eVVUGBgU>)

Tsipras risks pension reform

In five years, Greek pensions could dry up if the system isn't changed. Greek premier Tsipras has been turning up the pressure on pension reform, but opposition to his plans is growing.
(Deutsche Welle < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HAwcdBA0eVVUGBgU>)

Brazil's Carnival lovers face sobering moment as country braces for
recession


When it comes to mood making in Brazil, there are few institutions that can match the samba schools of Rio de Janeiro. For a week each year at Carnival, they embody exuberance with a pulsating parade of spectacular floats, gyrating dancers and bateria throbbing with the rhythms of tamborims, chocalhos, surdos and drums...

miércoles, 13 de enero de 2016

Patxi Lopez. Nuevo presidente del Congreso

Hola, compañer@

El PSOE ha alcanzado un acuerdo con Ciudadanos para que Patxi López se convierta hoy en el nuevo presidente del Congreso de los Diputados. 
 
Patxi López ha hecho del diálogo su bandera. Su trayectoria y su experiencia institucional trascienden a un partido político. Estamos convencid@s de que será un buen presidente del Congreso. El que nuestro país necesita.
 
Respecto al acuerdo, Ciudadanos respalda la candidatura de Patxi López y el PSOE apoya los nombres de Ciudadanos para la Mesa del Congreso.
 
Nuestro objetivo en toda esta negociación ha sido dar prioridad a la máxima pluralidad en el órgano de gobierno de la Cámara y al diálogo con todos. Hemos intentado alcanzar un acuerdo con Podemos y no ha sido posible. Las condiciones de la formación de Pablo Iglesias  de contar con cuatro grupos parlamentarios no eran asumibles y van en contra del Reglamento del Congreso.

Se trata de un acuerdo entre PSOE y Ciudadanos tras el que el PP no tiene ninguna opción, y por eso no ha presentado candidato/a a la Presidencia del Congreso. Era imposible acordar con el PP porque querían la presidencia sin tener en cuenta el cambio del 20 de diciembre.
 
El PSOE no va a votar a los candidatos del PP a la Mesa. No tenemos ningún acuerdo con el Partido Popular ni vamos a votar a ningún candidato del PP.
 
Ha sido un acuerdo entre el PSOE y Ciudadanos. El PP ha hecho de la necesidad virtud.
 
Seguimos trabajando, a partir de ahora, para alcanzar la modificación del Reglamento del Congreso con el objetivo de ponerlo al día.
 
Un saludo

domingo, 10 de enero de 2016

2016/01/07 Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

Retrospective Study - The multi-causality of the global systemic crisis

Debt, as a remedy : how is it that finance in the US has such influence on the real economy? Why is it that the bubbles do not get stuck in the financial sector? To understand this, one must understand the US pensions system and the importance of debt in the country's economy. In the absence of an adequate social safety net, and of a distribution system, the resources of most American retirees often come exclusively from their savings. Thus, to ensure a decent income during retirement, the amount necessary for them to save each month is about 1000 dollars. The amounts involved at the national level are, therefore, of more than a trillion (a thousand billion) dollars a year, for a total of retirement savings of around 25 trillion…
(GEAB No 100 < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBgEdBAoeVVUGBgU>)

Some ideas for a reasonable and effective management of the migration
crisis


If anyone had the run of a trans-European public debate, here are the sort of elements on which he could feed: . calm the media's hysterical barking: force them to present things in a less magnified and more relative fashion; stop stigmatizing a part of public opinion's reactions of rejection, which are only the result of their way of presenting things; stop overestimating the excessive inverse reactions (gifts of apartments, etc.) which only antagonize the former, report on the tangible steps taken… in short require them to give a balanced treatment of the situation representative of the problem's reality and public opinion... 
(LEAP / GEAB 97 Teaser < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBgYdBAoeVVUGBgU>)
A Pessimist's Guide to the World in 2016

Oil prices soar after Islamic State destroys facilities across the Middle East. Angela Merkel is forced to resign, throwing the European Union into disarray. The dollar slumps as Russian and Iranian hackers team up to launch cyber-attacks on U.S banks. Bloomberg News asked dozens of former and current diplomats, geopolitical strategists, security consultants, and economists to identify the possible worst-case scenarios, based on current global conflicts, that concern them most heading into 2016...
(Bloomberg < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBgcdBAoeVVUGBgU>)

EU to hold emergency Schengen talks

The European Commission is holding an emergency meeting on Wednesday (6 January) following the snap introduction of border control checks in northern Europe. EU migration commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos convened the talks after Sweden introduced ID checks with Denmark, followed by a similar move by the Danes, who began border controls with Germany...
(EUObserver <
http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBgQdBAoeVVUGBgU>)

Eurozone inflation lingers near zero despite ECB boost


Eurozone inflation remained lower than expected in December, official data said on Tuesday, adding pressure on the European Central Bank to once again ramp up its efforts to boost the economy in Europe. ECB president Mario Draghi disappointed markets last month with a limited bid to revive the struggling eurozone given near-zero inflation levels across the 19 countries that share the euro...
(EUBusiness < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBgUdBAoeVVUGBgU>)

Is Portugal trendy? Some thoughts on a new Eurozone government

So, what are the implications for the EU of a new socialist-led, but communist-green and leftist-supported, and ostensibly anti-austerity government in Portugal? I keep hearing this question; less frequently, the interrogation is sometimes accompanied by ‘is Portugal a new Greece'?
Will there be a new conflict within the European Council, a new battle with the ECB, a new Varoufakis...
(GEJ < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBgodBAoeVVUGBgU>)
A year after 'Je suis Charlie', a divided France struggles

One year on, an anxious, fragmented France is paying tribute to the victims of the killings at Charlie Hebdo magazine, with old divisions made worse by what President Francois Hollande has called "a terrible year"...
(Reuters < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBgsdBAoeVVUGBgU>)
North Korea ‘may send delegation' to Davos

North Korea may send a delegation to the World Economic Forum meeting in Switzerland for the first time in 18 years, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported on Monday. Yonhap cited unidentified sources as saying
North Korea was in talks with organisers to send a delegation to the annual event in the town of Davos... (Irish Times
<
http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBwIdBAoeVVUGBgU>)
Saudi backs Syria peace talks despite tensions with Iran

The Saudi foreign minister has said escalating tensions between Riyadh and Tehran would not affect Syrian peace talks. The statement comes as Kuwait recalled its ambassador from Iran in support of Saudi Arabia...
(Deutsche Welle < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBwMdBAoeVVUGBgU>)
Danish Ruling Party Slams Swedish Immigration Policy, New Border Controls

Danish ruling Venstre party spokesman Marcus Knuth condemned on Wednesday Sweden's immigration policy, which attracted numerous refugees to the country, and subsequent tightening of border controls. On Monday, Sweden imposed identity checks on people arriving in the country from the Danish territory ...
(Sputniknews < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBwAdBAoeVVUGBgU>)
Saudi Arabia's allies Bahrain, Sudan and UAE act against Iran

A number of Saudi Arabia's allies have joined diplomatic action against Iran after the Saudi embassy in Tehran was attacked amid a row over the execution of a Shia Muslim cleric. Bahrain and Sudan have both severed relations with Iran, and the UAE has downgraded its diplomatic team...
(BBC News <http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBwEdBAoeVVUGBgU>)
Armed militia to occupy Oregon wildlife refuge 'as long as necessary'

Tensions over the treatment of two cattle ranchers in Oregon escalated into an armed standoff on Saturday when members of a rightwing militia occupied a wildlife refuge at Malheur national park. The dispute with federal authorities is was sparked by the treatment of Dwight Hammond and his son Steve, who face jail terms related to arson charges..
(The Guardian < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBwYdBAoeVVUGBgU>)
Global Stocks Selloff Escalates as Oil Drops, China Weakens Yuan

lobal stocks fell and commodities slid as China's move to weaken its currency heightened concern that the outlook for global growth is dimming. European equities sank after emerging-market stocks dropped to a six-year low and developing-nation currencies slid on concern a weaker yuan may spark a wave of global turmoil ...
(Bloomberg < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBwcdBAoeVVUGBgU>)
North Korea Says It Has Detonated Its First Hydrogen Bomb

North Korea declared on Tuesday that it had detonated its first hydrogen bomb. The assertion, if true, would dramatically escalate the nuclear challenge from one of the world's most isolated and dangerous states. In an announcement, North Korea said that the test had been a “complete success
...
(New York Times < http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8HBwQdBAoeVVUGBgU>)
With Attacks in Afghanistan and India, Pakistan Must Get Serious About
Terrorism


For the people of Pakistan's restive Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, the year 2015 ended just like the past one had: on a bloody note. On Dec. 29, a bomb explosion targeting a government office killed at least 26 in Mardan, some 30 miles northwest of the provincial capital Peshawar. The breakaway Jamaat-ul-Ahrar faction of the jihadist terror group Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan has claimed responsibility for the attack...

sábado, 2 de enero de 2016

Feliz 2016

Querida compañera, querido compañero,

Me dirijo a ti para desearte un nuevo año pleno de éxitos y felicidad.

En estas fechas suelen expresarse los mejores sentimientos y el sentimiento que hoy quiero transmitirte es, sobre todo, de gratitud. Una inmensa gratitud por el trabajo y la lealtad que cientos de miles de socialistas de toda España habéis demostrado a lo largo de este año difícil que acabamos de despedir.

Los socialistas somos herederos de una gran tradición de entrega y sacrificio por los mejores valores, los que aspiran a hacer de nuestra sociedad un lugar más justo y equitativo. Somos deudores de una historia de servicio al bienestar y al progreso de los españoles y las españolas.

Durante el año 2015 hemos trabajado muy duro para hacer justicia a este legado del que nos sentimos orgullosos y para mantener bien altas las banderas eternas de la igualdad y la libertad. Gracias a tu apoyo y a tu trabajo, hemos conseguido recuperar muchos ayuntamientos y comunidades autónomas. El año 2016 será apasionante y muy intenso.
Ahí estaremos para seguir construyendo un país más justo y estoy seguro de que contaremos con tu convicción y tu compromiso para superar los retos a los que nos enfrentamos, también para obtener el mejor resultado en las elecciones de Galicia y Euskadi que se celebran este año.

Querida compañera, querido compañero, lo mejor para el PSOE y para España está por llegar.
Mantengamos la esperanza en un futuro mejor y sigamos trabajando para lograrlo, como sabemos hacerlo los socialistas. Con determinación, con perseverancia, con coherencia, con el mejor de los ánimos.

Un fuerte abrazo y ¡Feliz 2016!




Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón

2015/12/30 Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

LEAPThe sky in the world-after: global airspace also goes through a multi-polarization process
The « Gulfies» : after the oil, the sky is the limit. In the GEAB No 96 of June 2015, we had discussed one of the new diversification strategies of the Gulf countries’ economies, particularly the one related to the capturing of the international air traffic through game stakes based on direct investments in the European airlines’ share stocks. A strategy allowing them to divert the international traffic and air routes towards their own countries, according to their own ends. Owning some of the most modern air fleet (they are the first sponsors of Airbus (380) and Boeing), imposing new onboard and ground service standards, having invested in the most modern and innovative infrastructure, aligning extremely competitive prices … the Emirates airlines (Dubai), the Etihad Airways (Abu Dhabi) and the Qatar Airways (Doha) have managed to find their place in the international airspace, leaving behind the American and European fleet... (GEAB by LEAP)

LEAPGEAB Anniversary Exclusive Offer ! One free subscription and many more items in the Gift Box !
Get a free 1-year GEAB subscription for one of your friends. Offer the intelligent GEAB gift to one of your partners ! Send us the email address you wish to register for free, as well as a personal message to accompany the gift. This offer, 1 + 1 GEAB is available for all new subscriptions and renewals paid during the anniversary period, December 1, 2015 – February 1, 2016... (LEAP)

EUObsPoland ignores EU appeal on constitutional reform
Polish president Andrzej Duda has defied the European Commission by signing a controversial law on constitutional reform.The president, himself a lawyer, told press in Warsaw on Monday (28 December) he did it after “careful reflection” because the changes “help to strengthen the position of the Constitutional Tribunal.”... (EUObserver)

Reuters/APCrisis after crisis: Europe's 2015 rollercoaster ride
"I have no doubt that this is the most critical moment in our history," declared European Council President Donald Tusk, about half-way through this tumultuous year. He was talking about the imminent threat of Greece falling out of the eurozone - a crisis that has faded from the headlines, yet remains in many ways unresolved... (BBC)

BloombergFed Gives the Dollar the December Blues
The dollar’s in a funk. The U.S. currency is headed for its biggest monthly loss since June after the Federal Reserve raised its target from near zero on Dec. 16 and underscored that it’ll proceed gradually with additional interest-rate increases... (Bloomberg)

iom.intGerman politicians slam Greece on migration
Top German politicians have expressed frustration with Greece, the main entry point to the EU for the 1 million migrants and refugees who arrived in Europe this year, most of whom end up in Germany. Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who has often been on collision course with Greek politicians over the last years of the country's debt crisis... (EUObserver)

USA TodayEuropean shares dragged down by weak commodity prices
European stock markets fell on Wednesday as weak commodity prices impacted the shares of mining and energy companies. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index fell 0.5 percent, while the euro zone's blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index declined by 0.6 percent, both surrendering ground after rising in the previous session. Britain's FTSE 100 index of leading shares fell 0.8 percent while Germany's DAX retreated by 0.6 percent... (Reuters)

Ria NovostiGerman foreign policy: The mediatory force awakens
From Ukraine via Iran to the crisis in Syria, German foreign policy has played a central mediating role on a striking number of occasions in 2015. It seems the Germany have found their place in international affairs...  (Deutsche Welle)

BloombergThe Best and Worst of the U.S. Economy in 2015
It wasn't all that bad a year to be a Motown resident, or a software publisher, or even a job seeker without a high school degree. Homeowners in West Virginia have less reason to be upbeat, and women are more likely to see the cloudy side of the street. Here's how Americans fared in a handful of demographic groups across the economy in 2015... (Bloomberg)

AFPA home of their own impossible dream for China’s migrant workers
He makes less than US$1,000 (S$1,410) a month in a city where apartments can cost more than US$1 million, but even so the Chinese government is pinning its improbable hopes for a property revival on the likes of Mr Liu Jun. The electrician and plumber is a recent addition to China’s 250 million-plus migrant workers, who have provided the labour force to transform the country’s economy... (Today online)


GettyVladimir Putin has the most improved reputation of public figures in 2015
Vladimir Putin has the most improved reputation of public figures in 2015, according to a new YouGov profiles analysis. Mr Putin’s reputation seemingly improved dramatically amongst British people mainly due to his handling of the Syrian crisis. At exactly the same time Russia began its bombing campaign in Syria, Mr Putin's popularity ratings shot up, according to the analysis... (The Independent)


XinhuaDespite US pressure, Philippines to sign on to new China-led bank
Days after the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was formally launched, the government of Philippines said it will sign on to the bank’s articles of agreement before the end of the year. Despite the opposition of Washington, Philippines, a major US ally in the region, has joined the new lender... (The BRICS post)

ReutersAlternative Argentine Media Blast Macri's Intervention
Members of the National Network for Alternative Media reject Argentine President Mauricio Macri’s attempt to “undermine” the 2009 Media Law. Members from Argentina’s National Network for Alternative Media (RNMA) denounced an executive decree Wednesday, which allows the government to intervene into the operations of the Federal Administration of Audiovisual Communication (AFSCA)... (Telesur TV)

XinhuaZimbabwe to make Chinese yuan legal currency after Beijing cancels debts
Zimbabwe has announced that it will make the Chinese yuan legal tender after Beijing confirmed it would cancel $40m in debts. “They [China] said they are cancelling our debts that are maturing this year and we are in the process of finalising the debt instruments and calculating the debts,” minister Patrick Chinamasa said in a statement... (The Guardian)

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