miércoles, 16 de septiembre de 2015

2015/09/03 LEAP/E2020 Press Review on the Global Systemic Crisis

The de-Americanisation of the world has begun – emergence of solutions for a multipolar world by 2015
“Building a de-Americanised world”: this statement would have raised a smile a few years ago. At most it would have passed for provocation by Hugo Chavez. But when we are seeing the United States’ bankruptcy in real-time and it’s an official Chinese press agency that says so (1), the impact isn’t the same. In reality, it’s describing out loud a process which is already well underway: simply, it’s now allowed to speak about it in public. At least US government deadlock has the merit of loosening tongues (2). Let there be no mistake, this analysis hasn’t appeared in the Chinese media by chance, and it reflects Beijing’s hardening tone. In fact, if the whole world is holding its breath before this pathetic game of the US elite... (All the GEAB Archives, available for 220 eur)
Excerpt of the GEAB 78 (Oct 2013)

Migration crisis: bid for united EU response fraying over quota demands
Europe’s fragmented attempts to get to grips with its worst ever migration crisis are disintegrating into a slanging match between national capitals ahead of what is shaping up to be a major clash between eastern and western Europe over a common response...
The Guardian

Immigration, Civilisations, Intégration européenne…, une seule question compte : Voulons-nous ou non que les enfants d’immigrés deviennent de vrais européens ?
La France est le seul pays européen confronté à l’immigration depuis près de deux siècles Le Royaume Uni, l’Allemagne, les Pays-Bas, les pays Scandinaves, l’Italie, l’Espagne… tous ces pays ont exporté de la ressource humaine tout au long des XVIII° et XIX° siècles et jusqu’au début du XX°...
Franck Biancheri Documentation

EU migration: Crisis in graphics
Asylum applications in Europe have surged this year - with numbers for Germany and Hungary already exceeding their totals for 2014. Altogether, 438,000 refugees had applied for asylum by the end of July - compared with 571,000 for the whole of last year...
BBC News

It’s Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington
On Tuesday evening, we asked what would happen if emerging markets joined China in dumping US Treasurys. For months we’ve documented the PBoC’s liquidation of its vast stack of US paper. Back in July for instance, we noted that China had dumped a record $143 billion in US Treasurys in three months via Belgium, leaving Goldman speechless for once...
Zero Hedge

China August official PMI shrinks to 3-year low of 49.7, in line with forecasts
Activity in China’s manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest pace in three years in August, an official survey showed on Tuesday, reinforcing fears of a sharper slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy despite a flurry of government support measures...
Economic Times

Europe must wait at least five years for bank consolidation: CEOs
Europe will have to wait at least five years before banks begin to consolidate across borders, as they wrestle with low interest rates, regulatory reforms and the need to overhaul technology, bank executives said. Banks face pressures to refocus their business models and cut costs, pushing consolidation down the list of management priorities, Frederic Oudea, chief executive of Societe Generale...
Reuters

EU to extend Russia blacklists
The EU is Wednesday (2 September) expected to extend sanctions against Russian and Ukrainian individuals and firms by six months. Some 150 people and 37 firms will continue to have their assets frozen and be under a travel ban until March 2016, when sanctions will be reviewed again.
EUObserver

After Barclays and Bank of America, Citigroup has blockchain in sight
Citigroup is looking to tap into the potential of blockchain, the underlying technology that powers virtual currencies such as bitcoin, and is also experimenting with the idea of its own fiat-backed digital currency, a top executive of the United States headquartered banking and financial services company said...
Economic Times

Stocks Slide as Global Growth Angst Deepens; Treasuries Climb
It’s a new month, and the same story. Stocks fell around the world and the yen gained with gold as the slowdown in China showed no sign of abating. Asian shares started a global selloff after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing fell to a three-year low. European stocks followed after data pointed to weaker growth in the region..
Bloomberg

Kiev’s week of violence is a crisis of its own making
A “day of fury” was proclaimed on Monday by the Ukrainian nationalist party Svoboda (Freedom). The fury ended with a grenade being thrown into lines of soldiers guarding the Kiev parliament building, where it exploded, killing one soldier and injuring more than 100 people...
The Guardian

Guatemala President Otto Perez Molina Resigns
Guatemalan President Otto Pérez Molina resigned late Wednesday, hours after a judge issued an arrest warrant against the leader in connection to a growing corruption scandal that has plunged the country into its worst political crisis since the end of a brutal civil war...
Wall Street Journal

US launched a secret drone war against Islamic State in Syria
The CIA and US Special Forces have launched a secret drone programme in Syria, designed to hunt down and kill high-value members of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. The collaboration, in which both organizations fly armed drones over the country, has resulted in strikes against “several” senior Isis leaders..
Business Insider

EU needs to step up its game in Ukraine
The situation in Ukraine looks increasingly grim. The war in Donbas has intensified. And Moscow shows no sign of ending its support for its proxy rebels or withdrawing troops and heavy weapons from eastern Ukraine...
EUobserver

France ends probe into Arafat's death, says no proof he was poisoned
Investigators have decided to drop an inquiry into the death of Yasser Arafat. The former Palestinian leader's widow has insisted that her husband was poisoned in 2004. French magistrates have closed their investigation into the 2004 death of Arafat, the prosecutor's office said Wednesday...
Deutsche Welle
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lunes, 31 de agosto de 2015

2015/08/27 LEAP/E2020 Press Review on the Global Systemic Crisis

China – The potential financial meltdown (an extract from GEAB No 95 – May 2015)
Many of the funds advanced and loans issued by Chinese commercial banks and other lenders to the LGFVs are deemed to fail. (LGFV = local government financing vehicles). If people start doubting the LGFVs’ credibility, we would see a cascading financial crisis in China, comparable to the 2008 financial crisis in the US, as investors started withdrawing their money from these organizations and the value of their bonds, loans and stocks would crumble. Loans issued by banks are an important part of their assets and their solvability is, in part, determined by the quality of their loan book; if the LGFVs’ credibility collapses, China’s State-owned commercial banks would be severely hit and the result could be a bank crisis. However, China is a State-led command economy and all State-owned financial institutions, including the People’s Bank of China, are responsible to the CPC which decides on investments and defaults with the Chinese financial authorities taking care of bad loans to solve the debt problem. There is no political reason why China’s current debt problem should unravel as chaotically as we saw in the US and Europe, it will be resolved according to the CPC’s wishes. China is in the position that it can solve its debt crisis without harming ...

China's Central Bank Intensifies Assault on Financing Costs With Cash Injections
China’s central bank brought out an array of tools to target stubbornly high financing costs this week, reducing interest rates, offering cheap loans and adding cash to the financial system through open-market operations...

Exchanges, Barclays win dismissal of U.S. high-frequency trading case
Major U.S. stock exchanges and Barclays Plc on Wednesday won the dismissal of nationwide litigation in which pension funds and other investors accused them of rigging markets to benefit high-frequency traders...

How exposed are American households to the stock market?
Should the Federal Reserve worry about tanking stock markets? One reason for calm is that they do not much affect household finances. Just over half of Americans say they are invested in the stock market, but their direct stock holdings are small, making up only 14% of household balance sheets (see chart). That means the effect of this week's stock market falls on household spending, and on the American economy, is probably limited...

Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump
At a time when the oil price is languishing at its lowest level in six years, producers need to find half a trillion dollars to repay debt. Some might not make it. The number of oil and gas company bonds with yields of 10 percent or more, a sign of distress, tripled in the past year, leaving 168 firms in North America, Europe and Asia holding this debt, data compiled by Bloomberg show...

Greece’s Alexis Tsipras Struggles to Keep Syriza Party Together
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras faces the growing challenge of warding off the disintegration of his Syriza party even before a September election is called officially. Many lawmakers and party members haven’t decided whether they will run...

Ukraine and rebels to implement Minsk deal by September 1
Kyiv and pro-Russian separatists in its east have agreed to end all violations to the peace deal that was signed in Minsk earlier this year. Both sides blame each other for the ongoing violence...

Serbia and Kosovo sign ‘landmark’ deal
Serbia and Kosovo reached agreement Tuesday (25 August) on key issues for better relations between the two countries, and between Albanian and Serbian people in Kosovo. The deal, brokered in Brussels by EU chief diplomat Federica Mogherini, establishes strong local powers for Kosovo areas with a Serbian majority...

Engagement with China in US' national interest: White House
Facing criticism from the Republican party on inviting Chinese President Xi Jinping for a state visit next month, amid allegations of cyber-attacks and human rights issues, the White House has said that engagement with China is in the national interest of the US...

US increases airforce presence in Europe
The US Air Force will “very soon” deploy F-22 fighters jets to Europe, Air Force secretary Deborah James announced Monday (24 August) as part of a plan to increase Nato presence near Russia, while A-10 tankbusters arrived in Estonia on Saturday...

Putin and Sisi pledge to boost Russia-Egypt ties
Presidents discuss creation of free trade zone involving Eurasian Economic Union and also nuclear power plant in Egypt. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah el-Sisi have pledged to further boost relations between the two countries at talks in Moscow...

Czech Republic advocates use of army to protect borders
The EU could better protect itself from migrants if it had a common army, Czech president Milos Zeman said Tuesday (25 August), while the Czech finance minister, Andrej Babis, called for the closure of the Schengen area’s external borders and for NATO help...

North, South Korea reach agreement to ease tensions
North and South Korea agreed early on Tuesday to end a military standoff that sparked an exchange of artillery fire and had ratcheted up tension on one of the world’s most heavily-fortified borders. Under an accord reached in the early hours, following more than two days of talks, North Korea expressed regret over the recent wounding of South Korean soldiers in landmine blasts and Seoul agreed to halt anti-Pyongyang propaganda broadcasts...

Erdogan calls on Turks to choose 'stability' in upcoming elections
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday urged Turkey to vote for "stability" in 1 November polls, as three pro-Kurdish MPs were invited into a caretaker government in an unprecedented move...

Venezuela and Colombia hold talks over border dispute
Meeting prompted by Maduro’s move to close two border crossings and deport Colombians citing an attack by smugglers. The foreign ministers of Colombia and Venezuela have promised to increase cooperation following the closure of two major border crossings and a crackdown on migrants and smugglers by Venezuela...

Israeli air strike targets Hamas in response to rocket attack
Israel launched an air strike against a Hamas facility on Thursday in response to a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip, the Israeli army said. No one was hurt in the night-time rocket attack on southern Israel, the army said in a statement...
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This special Press Review reviews articles from the French and Engligh-speaking international online media relating to the unfolding global crisis.
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lunes, 24 de agosto de 2015

2015/08/20 LEAP/E2020 Press Review on the Global Systemic Crisis

Towards a Western crash… or not
To return to the stock market crash hypothesis, one must ask oneself if capital flight to Asia will cause a crash in some Western financial centres or not. In fact, in the context of its currency’s internationalization, China has done important work connecting the world to its own economy, with swap agreements, business takeovers, operational clearinghouses for Yuan, etc… Our team anticipates that banks and financial centres directly or indirectly connected to these financial flows will de facto profit from the flood of capital that will begin to flow in the global financial network. Thus we clearly see that the City, Luxembourg, Paris and Frankfurt in Europe, are on the right lines. In the Western camp we also count Sydney, Toronto, and even Tokyo. Which means that Wall Street is the major absentee from the Renminbi network. Consequently, we can well understand that Wall Street capital will fly to Asia ... (extract from the GEAB No 94)

Meet the Man Who Won on Greek Stocks When All Others Failed
MetLife MFC’s Vasileios Antoniadis made money in Greek stocks even as the country’s drawn-out bailout talks with creditors roiled markets. None of his peers did...

Merkel calls for EU-wide approach to asylum policy
Angela Merkel has used an interview to call for greater efforts to cope with a wave of migrants into Germany and other EU countries. She also expressed confidence about IMF participation in Greece's third bailout...

Greek PM calls on European Parliament to join quartet of creditors
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called for the European Parliament to join the so-called quartet of creditor institutions overseeing the country's 86-billion-euro EU/IMF bailout programme...

Russia hits EU allies with symbolic food ban
The extension covers Albania, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Montenegro. The ban on Ukrainian agricultural exports is to come into effect on 1 January 2016 if Ukraine implements the trade provisions of its EU association treaty...

The economic myth of robotics and the robot job-ocalypse
Blaming cyborgs instead of bankers and politicians is easy, says Tim Harford. The number of jobs lost to more efficient machines is only part of the problem . . . In the past, new industries hired far more people than those they put out of business. But this is not true of many of today’s new industries.”
Financial Times

Japan’s Economy Contracts as Consumption, Investment Decline
Japan’s economy contracted last quarter as consumers and businesses cut spending and exports tumbled, putting pressure on the prime minister to return his focus to Abenomics...
Bloomberg

Stock futures fall as oil weighs, Fed notes global growth fears
U.S. stock index futures fell sharply on Thursday, a day after minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting highlighted concerns over the state of the global economy and as oil prices hit their lowest since 2009...
Reuters Market

Record 107,500 migrants arrived in EU in July
The number of migrants registered at the EU’s borders more than tripled in July to 107,500 compared to the same month last year, figures released by Frontex on Tuesday (18 August) show. It passed the record 100,000 in a single month for the first time since the EU’s border control agency began keeping records in 2008...
EUObserver

L'UE choquée face au souhait de la Slovaquie de n'accueillir que des migrants chrétiens
Le Premier ministre slovaque a annoncé que son pays n’accepterait que des migrants chrétiens. Face à cette déclaration, la Commission européenne a réitéré le principe de non-discrimination qui est au cœur de la loi européenne...
Euractiv

US Sees Space as Next Potential Battlefield With China
United States should revisit its historic reluctance to militarize space, and integrate a space-based layer of defense into traditional defense architecture, a US defense contractor said...
Sputnik News

The Age Of $40 Oil Is Here
On Wednesday, the price of West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, fell 4.3% to $40.80 a barrel, hitting levels not seen since the depths of the financial crisis more than six years ago. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell to $47 a barrel...
Forbes

China-Russia joint military drill no reason for concern
As China and Russia started the second phase of an annual joint naval drill Thursday off the coast of Vladivostok, quite a few worrywarts have found themselves attracted to the sensational claim that the two countries are stepping up efforts to forge a military alliance...
China Daily

Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone may be over, say health workers
The long-running Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone is all but over after nearly 13,500 cases and almost 4,000 deaths, those fighting the disease believe. The last case in Sierra Leone was an eight-month-old child, who was hospitalised nearly two weeks ago and died four days later...
The Guardian
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This special Press Review reviews articles from the French and Engligh-speaking international online media relating to the unfolding global crisis.
It is delivered freely on a weekly basis to 60,000 recipients worldwide.

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jueves, 13 de agosto de 2015

2015/08/13 LEAP/E2020 Press Review on the Global Systemic Crisis

The IMF : a thorn in the European Foot
Certainly, this Grexit had been sought, deliberately or not, by some players in the poker game currently being played, and particularly the Washington player. Everyone knows the IMF’s historical position as regards managing sovereign debt. The Greek case is no exception : of the three members of the troika, the IMF is by far the most ideologically exacting in its requests as regards Greece. If the Greek tragedy has lasted so long, it’s not the size of the problem which is in question. To be sure it was necessary to inject around 240 billion€ into the Greek economy – or rather into the Greek banks and financial system, so that they didn’t collapse (which would have risked dragging down the whole European system). An amount which only represents a quarter of the ECB’s QE, for example, or a small part of the European recovery and bank support plans...

Greece and lenders agree new bailout deal, finance minister says
The Greek government announced it has struck an ambitious bailout deal with creditors aimed at securing around €86bn (£61bn) over three years in return for radical economic reforms to be pushed through parliament as early as this week...

Germany sceptical over Greek bailout deal, Varoufakis too
Greek lawmakers will hold an emergency parliament session today for a crucial vote on ratifying a hurriedly-concluded bailout deal, but Germany has cast doubt on the agreement...

Huge blasts at Chinese port kill 44, firefighters missing
Two huge explosions tore through an industrial area where toxic chemicals and gas were stored in the northeast Chinese port city of Tianjin, killing at least 44 people, including at least a dozen fire fighters, officials and state media said on Thursday...

Hillary Clinton relents in e-mail inquiry amid campaign
Hillary Rodham Clinton has agreed to relinquish the personal email server she used while serving as the top U.S. diplomat, as part of an investigation into an issue that threatens to remain a significant distraction for her presidential campaign...

UN chief sacks mission head in Central African Republic
The string of allegations against UN peacekeepers in the country has included rape, assault and murder. UN Secretary General Ban K-moon declares "enough is enough" and says he is angered and ashamed by reports...

US stocks, yields stumble after China lets yuan fall again
Stocks, the US dollar, and emerging market currencies around the world remained under pressure for a second day on Wednesday after China's yuan weakened again, a day after the country devalued its currency...

China central bank tries to soothe global markets, says no basis for yuan to fall further
China's central bank said on Thursday that there was no basis for further depreciation in the yuan given strong economic fundamentals, in a bid to reassure jittery global markets after it devalued the currency earlier in the week...

Phasing out fossil fuel would show true EU leadership
For about 20 years, the EU has been a constructive leader in climate negotiations: benefitting from a growing economy, and support from public opinion. However, in the last few years, the EU’s leadership has been declining due to a series of internal and external factors...

Sundar Pichai, le nouveau patron discret et surdoué de Google
Cet ingénieur de 43 ans d’origine indienne, salarié de Google depuis 2004, a pris les plus hautes responsabilités du géant du web en pleine restructuration. Google n’est désormais plus qu’une filiale parmi d’autres sociétés, regroupées au sein de la nouvelle holding «Alphabet» présentée lundi par Larry Page, cofondateur avec Sergey Brin de Google en 1998...

US Deregulation of Oil Exports Could Hurt North American Refineries
Experts claim that removing the ban on US crude oil exports is likely to benefit producers, but could squeeze the profit margins of North American refineries that will have to pay higher prices for the crude oil they consume and process...
Sputnik International

Indian rapper ‘overwhelmed’ by success of protest song against Unilever
A rapper whose protest song about corporate pollution in an idyllic hill town in southern India has dragged the issue into the spotlight says she is totally overwhelmed by its phenomenal success, which has prompted a personal response from the CEO of Unilever...
The Guardian

« L’UE oblige les migrants à des traversées dangereuses pour obtenir un droit qu’elle leur reconnaît »
L’ONG Médecins sans frontières (MSF) est présente dans les eaux de la Méditerranée depuis le mois de mai pour mener des opérations de sauvetage. L’un de ses navires, le Dignity-I, était présent lors du naufrage qui a fait plus de 200 disparus (près de 400 personnes ont été secourues) mercredi 5 août au large de la Libye...
Le Monde

Europeans Gravitate Toward More Developed EU Countries
The following countries are expected to show a negative population change by 2030: Lithuania (down 24 percent), Latvia (down 18 percent) and Bulgaria (down 10 percent). The Sputnik news agency is releasing data on population dynamics in European countries as part of its Sputnik.Facts project. According to Eurostat, population decline has been plaguing most Eastern European nations as well as the relatively poor "old European" countries such as Portugal and Greece...
Sputnik News
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This special Press Review reviews articles from the French and Engligh-speaking international online media relating to the unfolding global crisis.
It is delivered freely on a weekly basis to 60,000 recipients worldwide.

Subscription / Contact: centre@europe2020.org