2016/07/19 Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

A multi-everything Middle-East As anticipated by us three years ago , the multipolar method is also underway in the current reorganization of the Middle East. The main poles of the region, notably Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel (we noted at the time that their coexistence recreated the conditions for a multi-religious and multi-ethnic Middle-East in line with the multi-millennial nature of the region) are currently undergoing a seemingly paradoxical process of differentiation (they show more of their particularities) and of rapprochement (they express more clearly their need to work together)... (Read more in the GEAB 105) Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin by LEAP : Free trial Have you thought of getting a GEAB subscription for one year, but you would wish to test one bulletin first? We are more than happy to send you a sample. Send us a message now, with the mail subject GEAB Free Trial and one bulletin will reach your mailbox in no time. (Mailto : geab@leap2020.net) LEAP - member of the World Future Studies Federation Laboratoire Europeen d'Anticipation Politique is now a member of WFSF (World Future Studies Federation)! WFSF is a UNESCO and UN consultative partner and global NGO with members in over 60 countries; bringing together academics, researchers, practitioners, students and futures-focused institutions. WFSF offers a forum for stimulation, exploration and exchange of ideas, visions, and plans for alternative futures, through long-term, big-picture thinking and radical change. WFSF has a long-standing commitment to truly global futures, meaning openness to creating alternative futures that embrace cultural diversity and individual difference... (LEAP) S&P 500 Futures Rise as Turkish Lira Rebounds After Failed Coup Financial markets showed signs of resilience following a failed coup attempt in Turkey, with the lira leading a recovery in developing-nation currencies and U.S. equity-index futures gaining ground. Haven assets including the yen, gold and Treasuries fell... (Bloomberg) Turkey coup could threaten country’s Nato membership, suggests John Kerry Turkey could fall foul of Nato’s « requirement with respect to democracy » if it fails to uphold the rule of law in the wake of an attempted coup, the US Secretary of State John Kerry has warned. The Turkish government’s response to the failed coup has alarmed both the US and the EU, after it described the plotters as a « cancer » which had to be « cleansed » from public institutions... (The Independent) Europe in 2009 could end up in the hands of the post modern great grand sons of Hitler, Franco, Mussolini and Petain. Franck Biancheri, 1998 The scenario elaborated by Franck Biancheri in 1998 in his article “Europe in 2009 could end up in the hands of the post modern great grand sons of Hitler, Franco, Mussolini and Petain” is being realized in front of us. Franck Biancheri determined that the changeover would be when the “antidemocratic and xenophobic parties will reach scores between 20 and 30% in a minimum of 7 Member-States.” Today the populist, nationalist, separatists, anti-democratic, xenophobic forces have invaded the political space in Europe... (LEAP) 6 things to know about Jill Stein, Israel-bashing last Jewish candidate standing Voters who have their hearts set on supporting a left-wing secular Jew running an insurgent campaign still have a candidate. Jill Stein, the 2012 Green Party candidate, is making another run. And this year, with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both earning historically low popularity ratings, she hopes she can attract at least some of Bernie Sanders’ 13 million Democratic primary voters... (Times of Israel) Ireland Hits Brexit Alarm in Biggest Foreign Crisis in 50 Years The prime minister is under pressure, economists are slashing growth forecasts and companies are warning of Brexit’s dire consequences. London? No, Dublin. The intertwining of trade and finance means no other country is feeling the fallout from the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union more than Ireland. In the year the Irish marked the centenary of their uprising against British rule, the country remains at the mercy of the unfolding drama in its closest neighbor... (Bloomberg) Barack Obama condemns killing of three police officers in Baton Rouge shooting Three police officers were killed after a gunfight in Baton Rouge, Louisiana on Sunday and three injured, one critically. The gunman was also killed, and police said they do not believe any other suspects currently threaten the city. (The Guardian) Common interests and communication boost EU-China partnership Strengthened communication and common interests contribute to fostering a sound partnership between China and the European Union, according to scholars and experts attending an event dubbed the Belt & Road Initiative and EU-China Partnership, in Beijing on Saturday... (China Daily) Sanctions Against Russia Aggravate Problems of Diplomacy – Former French PM According to de Villepin, diplomacy is currently in danger, as the main arguments of the international community over the last decades were an exclusion of countries from dialogue, sanctions and military operations. « Excessive use of economic sanctions has crippled the diplomatic bilateral understanding. Demonization — that is contrary to what diplomacy should do... (Sputnik) 9/11 report’s classified ’28 pages’ about potential Saudi Arabia ties released The Obama administration has released the long-classified 28 pages of the official congressional report on the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, which concerned the alleged ties of the Saudi Arabian government to the 9/11 hijackers. Publishing the long-awaited pages 13 years after they were first classified, the White House insisted they show no link between Saudi Arabia and the hijackers who carried out the terrorist attacks... (The Guardian) Kenya May Ink EU Trade Deal Alone as Brexit Spooks Neighbors Kenya may abandon 10 years of negotiating a trade deal with the European Union as part of the regional East African Community bloc and go it alone, to avoid having duties of as much as 30 percent slapped on its exports from October. A so-called Economic Partnership Agreement between Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi and the EU is on hold after Tanzania’s government said two weeks ago it’s reluctant to sign any deal.. (Bloomberg) Premier Li wins backing over South China Sea at ASEM Summit In Mongolia over the weekend, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s effort to promote China’s stance on the South China Sea issue received broad support during the 11th Asian-Europe Meeting (ASEM) Summit. Li said Saturday before he returned to China that the South China Sea arbitration award will have no impact on China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime interests... (China Daily)