2016/08/03 Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

Brexit: Returning to our previous anticipations
If our team was focused on the Bremain, it was due to one of our basic predications: “No one leaves the EU…” (the European reality within a globalized world, in today’s Internet era, is a strong reference). We were wrong to conclude that “the British establishment would manage to get a yes to remain in the EU”. In fact, we totally underestimated the highly strategic choice of a part of the British state machinery (formally embodied by Theresa May) to support the Brexit: precisely because “no one leaves the EU”, an “impossible-to-implement-Brexit” has now allowed the UK to block the entire European decision-making system by defining the rules of the game, to which an increasing number of Member States would readily rally... (GEAB Aug. 2016 / Subscribe and read our BREXIT special report)

Let Cyprus Embody the Principles of the European Union
The U.K. referendum result to leave the European Union has been a major shock for the U.K. But it has also shaken the EU and has reignited the debate about how best to achieve the objectives of the European project. The potential reunification of Cyprus offers an opportunity for the EU to demonstrate its ideals and the value of its policy and institutional framework... (WSJ)

UK construction shrinks at fastest pace in seven years after Brexit vote – PMI
Britain’s construction industry suffered its sharpest downturn in seven years last month, according to another business survey on Tuesday which suggests the economy is at risk of recession after June’s Brexit vote. The Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched down to 45.9 in July from 46.0 in June — the lowest reading since June 2009 and some way below the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction... (Reuters) 

Thousands turn out in Liverpool city centre for Jeremy Corbyn rally
Jeremy Corbyn has described the challenge to his leadership of the Labour party as a “massive opportunity to reach out to people all across the country”, speaking to a crowd of about 5,000 people at a campaign rally in Liverpool. Police had to close roads surrounding St George’s Plateau in the centre of the city when the event, which was organised with only two days notice, attracted large crowds. Carrying banners reading “Scousers for Corbyn” and “We chose Jez”, theLabour leader’s supporters clambered... (The Guardian)

Texas allows guns at universities on mass shooting anniversary
Texas became the eighth US state to allow guns on campuses Monday — a controversial decision that comes on the 50th anniversary of a deadly sniper rampage at a university. The law, which was passed last year, requires public universities in Texas to permit concealed weapons in campus buildings, although schools can impose limits on where guns are allowed. (Inquirer)

US launches airstrikes against Isis in Libya
US warplanes have attacked Islamic State forces in Libya, the Pentagon has announced, at the start of what US officials say will be a sustained offensive against the militant group outside Iraq and Syria. Isis positions in the strategic port city of Sirte were hit by manned aircraft and drones on Monday, after a request from the UN-backed unity government, the Pentagon said... (The Guardian)

West backs terrorists and plotters, says Erdogan
Turkey has accused the West of supporting terrorism and backing the failed coup to overthrow the government. In a fiery speech delivered at his 1,150 room palace in Ankara on Tuesday (2 August), president Recep Tayyip Erdogan demanded the United States hand over his bitter foe Fethullah Gulen. Gulen, a 75-year old cleric who has lived in Pennsylvania since 1991, has been accused of masterminding the 15 July coup. He denies any involvement... (EUObserver)

Credit Suisse, Deutsche index exclusion another blow to European banks
Two of Europe’s biggest banks – Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) – will be dropped from an index of Europe’s top 50 blue-chip companies next week in a further blow to the embattled sector. For Deutsche Bank, it will be the first time since 1998 that it will no longer be a member of the STOXX 50 .STOXX50. Shares of both were firmly in the red on Tuesday, with Credit Suisse down more than 5 percent and Deutsche off 3.5 percent... (Reuters)

Uber Sells China Operations to Didi Chuxing
Global ride-hailing giant Uber Technologies Inc. has given up its costly battle for China’s riders, swapping its local operations there for a minority stake in the country’s homegrown champion, Didi Chuxing Technology Co. Didi, which was valued at $28 billion in its latest fundraising round, said Monday that Uber and investors in its UberChina unit will take a 20% stake in the company... (WSJ)

The EU and China’s velvet power
One would not really imagine the EU inviting journalists from some 100 countries to present its development programmes and ask the media to help it promote its projects and external policy. It would probably be accused of mixing information with spin and trying to impose European views and interests on other parts of the world. China did exactly that last week. The People’s Daily, the official paper of the ruling Communist Party, organised a “Media cooperation forum on Belt and Road” in Beijing... (EUObserver)

North Korea fires 2 ballistic missiles, South Korea and U.S. say
North Korea fired two ballistic missiles Wednesday morning local time, U.S. and South Korean authorities said. U.S. Strategic Command issued a statement saying it detected what it believes was the simultaneous launch of two presumed No Dong intermediate range ballistic missiles. The missiles were fired from the western city of Hwangju in the country’s North Hwanghae province, STRATCOM said, adding one exploded after launch and the other was tracked over North Korea and into the Sea of Japan... (CNN)

THAAD serious threat to peace, stability of East Asia
Using the threat of the North Korea’s missile program as an excuse, the US and South Korea have decided to deploy THAAD missile defense system in South Korea. This is a serious threat to the peace and stability of East Asia. American decision to deploy THAAD missile defense system in South Korea should be a clear indicator to those who still hold misguided assumption about the US military strategy in East Asia and the world... (China Daily)

When superpowers court Rodrigo Duterte
“I will be chartering a [foreign policy] course [for the Philippines] on its own and will not be dependent on the United States,” exclaimed Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines’ firebrand president shortly after winning a historic election in May. After almost a century of strategic dependence on the US, the Philippines was now interested in charting its own destiny. Duterte presented himself as a fully fledged maverick, willing to shake up the Southeast Asian country’s state of affairs, even if it came at the expense of estranging traditional allies... (AlJazeera)

Open Letter to the European Leaders: Countering the British nationalist takeover with a European democratic blow
Dear European leaders, We have all got it right, Brexit will ultimately not result in Great Britain leaving the EU. Nevertheless, Brexit is paralysing the European decision-making system. What we are currently seeing is a kind of EU political takeover which looks nothing like democracy, and much more like a “coup d’etat”. In light of the cataclysmic crisis which has struck the world and the EU in the past 10 years, it is a fact that the weak governance supplied by the current European technocratic system is no longer sufficient... (LEAP.net)