2018/05/30 - Political Anticipation - A GEAB by LEAP Press review

The Trends magazine pays tribute to Philippe Maystadt’s “Euroland” testament
Following the launching event of LEAP’s Special Euroland Review, the Trends Magazine published an article paying a due tribute to Philippe Maystadt’s “Euroland” testament to be found in the volume. “Philippe Maystadt left a testament, via an interview he gave a few weeks only before passing away to Robert Polet and Godelieve Ugeux, from the European think-thank Leap (Laboratoire européen d’anticipation politique). An interview which is part of a very rich review dedicated to the euro zone and which was presented a few days ago at the EIB’s Brussels premices... (LEAP2020.net) 

Columbia’s Elections? Read what we wrote on May 15th in our quarterly “Calendar of future events”
The peace process with the FARC is the major subject in this presidential election. The Peace Agreement signed with the FARC in November 2016 by the current president, Juan Manuel Santos (ineligible for a third term as president), has raised questions since the arrest of a prominent FARC member. Seuxis Paucis Hernández Solarte, aka ‘Jesús Santrich’, was very involved in the peace negotiations and now faces possible extradition to the United States, having been caught for drug trafficking. The relative immunity granted to FARC veterans under the Peace Agreement is thus being questioned from all sides... (GEAB Bulletin 125 / May 2018)

Investments, trends and recommendations : this month's selection made by our financial experts
– Oil: don’t count on it!
– The dollar: deals to make?
– Gold: not like the rest
– Loans: urge you on!
– Savings: keep them safe!

– Business initiatives: an expiry date!
– Automobile sector: a model for the future …(GEAB Bulletin 125 / May 2018)

The euro, a “vector” currency in a multi-monetary system, by Pierre Calame*
Selected pieces of “Euroland at a crossroads“: Excerpt from Pierre Calame’s book “Petit Traité d’Œconomie” published in April 2018 by Éditions Charles Léopold Mayer – ECLM Until the mid-XVIIIth century, one spoke of eoconomy instead of economy: from oïkos (home) an nomos (law). The oeconomy refered to the wise government of the home serving the family’s common good. This translates in the XXIst century into: “the wise government of the planet serving the humanity’s common good”. The oeconomy thus turns into a branch of governance... (LEAP2020.net)

OPEC Could “Relax” Production Cuts
It was only a few weeks ago that top officials from OPEC nations were issuing statements assuring the market that the group’s production cuts would remain in effect through the end of 2018, with the possibility of even extending them into next year. But now, with the Vienna meeting just a few weeks away, OPEC is suddenly warming up to the idea of lifting the production limits... (Oilprice)

Oil Drops Amid Output Revival Plan, While WTI-Brent Gap Widens
As predicted by LEAP experts in the latest GEAB bulletins, oil in New York headed for its longest run of losses since February, as traders were rattled by OPEC plans to restore output, while the spread with benchmark Brent widened. Futures slid 1 percent in New York after Friday’s 4 percent decline. There was no settlement Monday for West Texas Intermediate because of the U.S. Memorial Day holiday and all trades will be booked Tuesday. That decline came as Saudi Arabia and Russia said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners may boost supply to make up for potential losses from other members, most notably Venezuela and Iran... (Bloomberg)

US Debt / Inflation: The FED as a support tool for Mr Trump’s objectives
When a wage growth dynamic finally emerges and the low unemployment rate translates into higher wages, the Fed will have every reason to believe that a price-wage loop is about to become real. The ‘hawks’ of the Fed are beginning to plead openly for an acceleration of monetary tightening. As early as January 2nd, Neel Kashari, chairman of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, did not hesitate to warn that ‘if wage growth continued, it could have an impact on the pace of the interest rate increase... (Read the entire report)

How radical is Italy’s Savona really?
Italy starts its working week by being thrown into a political crisis, as the two eurosceptic parties that wanted to form a government reached a standoff with Italy’s president. Over the weekend, president Sergio Mattarella rejected academic Paolo Savona to become a member of the new Italian government, reportedly because of his eurosceptic views. In response, Giuseppe Conte dropped his bid to become prime minister, while the Five Star Movement is calling for the impeachment of Mattarella... (EUObserver)

LA Times among US-based news sites blocking EU users due to GDPR
The general data protection regulation, which has come into effect, has prompted a number of prestigious US-based websites including the Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune to shut off access to internet users in the EU. Visitors to newspapers owned by Tronc Inc – formerly Tribune Publishing – which also includes the New York Daily News, the Baltimore Sun, Orlando Sentinel and the San Diego Union-Tribune, are being redirected to a page with the message... (The Guardian)

Indian regulator clears Bayer's deal for Monsanto
India’s antitrust regulator has approved the acquisition of U.S. seed major Monsanto Co (MON.N) by Bayer AG (BAYGn.DE), in a decision that moves the $62.5 billion deal a step closer to the finish line. German conglomerate Bayer is preparing to close the takeover this quarter, giving it control of more than 25 percent of the world’s seed and pesticides market... (Reuters)

Donald Trump, Shinzo Abe to meet ahead of expected North Korea summit
Both leaders said it is "imperative" to completely dismantle North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile programs. Meanwhile, Pyongyang's former spy chief was reported to be traveling to Washington for talks... (Deutsche Welle)

Two of the world's biggest brands are now Chinese
A new list of the world's most valuable brands is out, and China has claimed two of the top spots for the first time. Alibaba has joined the top 10, alongside Chinese tech group Tencent, as well as stalwarts such as Google (GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL). Ranked at No. 9., Jack Ma's Alibaba has seen its brand value nearly double to $113 billion as the e-commerce company has expanded further into fields such as mobile payments and cloud computing... (CNN)