2018-05-18 Political Anticipation - A LEAP Press review (GEAB special)

Currencies, armies, oil: Extensive repositioning of major world players Following the removal of the last of the bolts imposed by the previous world order, and in line with our anticipations, vast amounts of until now restrained transforming energy are now being released along paths that have long been marked out but were previously forbidden. The challenges raised by this transition are immense, but the major global players seem to be in a position to handle – and no longer endure – this huge reconfiguration. As a matter of fact, we are beginning to see more clearly who they are and what their strategies are. This is precisely what we aim to report in this GEAB issue... Public Announcement (for free Middle East: Towards peace with no losers The Middle East looks as if it could flare up at any moment. Iran and Israel are now face-to-face for the first time. The Turkish regime is hardening and now troubling everyone. Syria keeps offering a peace that Westerners refuse to ratify as long as their share of the victory (and of the cake) is not guaranteed. The Gazans are being strafed through the barbed wires of their prison by the Israeli army. But no one is moving. At most, part of the international community is concerned that the Palestinians are not massacred. Since Saudi Arabia agreed that Israel had a right to their own land in the region, Palestinians will have to accept that soon they will no longer be supported by anyone in the world... GEAB 125 / Register here NEOM, between a New Jerusalem and the Library of Alexandria The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM that we have told you about in a previous issue is a real reason to hope. As mentioned last time, the Saudis would not proceed with this project if they truly had in mind an open conflict with Iran. This project is first and foremost a symbol of the desire for the future, modernity and normality of the Middle East. It is intended to show that the Arab world is capable of producing more than just intolerance, fanaticism and violence. This is an essential message to create the conditions for a return of peace to the region, but also to stop the stigmatisation and even the persecution of Muslim populations throughout the world, which is made permissible by the radicalisation of a very small proportion of them - particularly in India, Burma, Europe, Russia, China, Africa... GEAB 125 / Register here 2018-2020 Financial Crisis: Turning a Dollar Rain into a Wealth Harvest Apprehension goes hand-in-hand with financial matters. Last April, the alarmist IMF announcements predicted a huge crisis by 2020 linked to the level of global debt that ten years of ‘crisis management’ have not brought under control. Rather, US public debt has doubled in absolute terms (from $10,000 billion to $20,000 billion), the EU's debt has increased from €8,000 billion to €12,000 billion, China has contributed 40% of the increase in world debt in 10 years, etc. In this context, financiers are worried about the tendency towards protectionist retreat which appears to be behind the announcements of US customs duties on steel and aluminium. But are we really on the edge of a new financial crash... GEAB 125 / Register here Euro-Russian relations: Relaxation in sight The revival of European dynamics, whatever they might be, depends largely on the restoration of relations with Russia. This has divided the European Union since 2014 and demonstrated how much this edifice, in its initial form, is no longer capable to serve the most obvious interests of our continent, starting with maintaining good relations with our neighbours. We are very certain on this point: Europe, whether we are talking about the EU or the eurozone, will not come out of its political crisis until normal relations are restored with Russia...GEAB 125 / Register here The Geopolitics of Cryptocurrencies: After a regulatory phase at the level of nation states in 2018/2019, international coordination will begin in 2020 Cryptocurrencies lie at the centre of many of the questions being asked by individuals, companies and market authorities, and therefore by nation states. Their position within the economic environment is becoming more and more important for several related reasons: The large investments made by those people who consider cryptocurrencies safe havens or speculative tools; The impressive rise of fund-raising in cryptocurrencies; the famous ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings) mentioned in the GEAB no 122... GEAB 125 / Register here Calendar of future events The future is filled with the factual data on which we base the anticipations that inform our decisions. That's why, on a quarterly basis, our team shares with the GEAB readers the ‘raw’ data of this work in the form of an annotated calendar of upcoming events for the next three or four months. It is a calendar which everyone can adapt to their own concerns – a simple, original and illuminating tool. 17th May: EU-Balkans Summit in Sofia (Bulgaria) We have often said that the EU's enlargement to the Balkans is a geopolitical time bomb, considering the current state of EU-Russia and EU-Turkey relations. But, interestingly enough, the words ‘integration’ or ‘enlargement’ do not appear on the institutional description of the EU-Balkans Summit... GEAB 125 / Register here Investments, trends and recommendations: Oil – don’t count on it We maintain our anticipation of a forthcoming price decrease (20th May, the date of the Venezuelan elections, is certainly a reference point). This decline may be disrupted by eruptions of violence in the Middle East as long as the current situation remains uncertain. That said, unless there is a widespread explosion of tensions, the markets have already incorporated the increase related to these bouts of hostility. So, it's mainly a price decline that could take us by surprise; something which, we repeat, will not be a collapse, but a return to $50-55 a barrel by the summer. It should be remembered that the concomitant decline of the dollar has automatically, but falsely, raised the price of oil. One last important note: if we are wrong and the tensions worsen in the Middle East, the summer could see the situation degenerate. For this reason, we will reassess the situation of the oil prices again next month... GEAB 125 / Register here The Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, your crisis time companion www.geab.eu