2018/07/17 Political Anticipation - A GEAB by LEAP Press review

The GEAB view on geopolitics : A moribund NATO
As we have explained on other occasions, NATO is still there, of course, but only because there are no better options at hand. Everyone wants to be rid of it – the Europeans who want a common European defence[1] and Donald Trump who wants Europeans to participate more in their own defence. They are all contributing to a slow process in which NATO continues to get in the way whilst Europeans dither between several strategies... (Selected fragment / GEAB 126)

Trump's Putin summit: a slippery slope to a violent, darker world
From Europe to Asia, Trump is destroying alliances with democracies, while making friends with authoritarian leaders. Emboldened by re-election, US president Donald Trump landed in Russia today for the first meeting of the newly formed Group of 3 (G3) with President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Xi Jinping of China to carve up spheres of influence in Europe and Asia. Trump and Putin’s unholy alliance could lead to war with Iran. Meanwhile, Nato limped along as a shell of its former self, with the US only still technically a member because Congress will not allow Trump to withdraw... (The Guardian)

Brexit – why can’t we just swipe left?
It’s like watching a train wreck, in slow motion, with 3D and Dolby surround sound. The resignations of Boris Johnson and David Davis from the British cabinet have finally thrust into the open what the dogs in the street have known since the Brexit referendum of 2016. Namely, the promises of the Brexit cheerleaders – such as Johnson and Davis – are unachievable, totally unrealistic and are based on a strangely nostalgic view of British history rather than on the realities facing Britain today... (EUObserver)

The Most Overlooked Renewable Energy Source
Battery-powered electric vehicles have been stealing the spotlight from fuel cell vehicle technology, despite the fact that the latter has been around for a decade or two longer than battery EVs. Fuel cell vehicles are powered by the most abundant element in the Universe and the Solar System—hydrogen. But technology costs and the handling of hydrogen, as well as high upfront investment costs for hydrogen station infrastructure, have been the major roadblocks to hydrogen-powered cars... (Oilprice)

The sky’s the limit: The future of urban air mobility
In the sustainable megalopolis of tomorrow, flying cars will lift off from busy streets to swiftly and safely navigate the skies alongside self-piloted electric air taxis and parcel delivery drones. Far from being a scene from Total Recall or some other science fiction movie, this aerial cityscape is set to become our reality in the not too distant future. In the meantime, metro areas are becoming denser, more trafficked and polluted. By 2050, about 2.5 billion more people will be living in cities... (Euronews)

The GEAB view on innovation: NEOM, between a New Jerusalem and the Library of Alexandria
The Middle Eastern mega-city project called NEOM is a real reason to hope. The Saudis would not proceed with this project if they truly had in mind an open conflict with Iran. This project is first and foremost a symbol of the desire for the future, modernity and normality of the Middle East. It is intended to show that the Arab world is capable of producing more than just intolerance, fanaticism and violence. This is an essential message to create the conditions for a return of peace to the region, but also to stop the stigmatisation and even the persecution of Muslim populations throughout the world, which is made permissible by the radicalisation of a very small proportion of them - particularly in India, Burma, Europe, Russia, China, Africa... The cradle of the Muslim world has a duty to conceive a new, modern Islam that contributes positively to global dynamics... (Selected fragment / GEAB 125)

The GEAB view on food crisis: World autonomy threatened by Chinese investments and needs
One of the symptoms of the complete opening up of the market by the Commission that poses a threat to European food security is the acquisition of agricultural land by foreign investors, particularly Chinese investors. Indeed, the investments of the Middle Kingdom in foreign agricultural lands have jumped up in recent years. They totalled at least $94 billion between 2010 and 2017, almost half of them in the last two years, and more than half in Europe, according to a barometer from two American associations, the American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation... (Selected fragment / GEAB 126) 

The New Development Bank of BRICS: current innovations and challenges, by Prof Roberta Ciampo
The need to face the infrastructural gap and the lack of resources among the BRICS countries had induced governments to create in 2015 their own financial institution, the New Development Bank (hereinafter NDB), whose task was firstly and foremost to coordinate the different infrastructural needs, and secondly to maintain the main focus on sustainable development... (LEAP Laboratory)

EU pushes China on trade, saying it could open up if it wanted
China could open its economy if it wished, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said on Monday, with the European Union calling on countries to avoid a trade war even as pressure mounts on Beijing over its industrial policies. Playing host to Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang stressed the need to uphold free trade and multilateralism as the United States and China become increasingly mired in a trade dispute, with no sign of negotiations on the horizon... (Reuters)

Why the Eritrea-Ethiopia peace is good for African politics
Diplomats from Ethiopia and Eritrea are calling it a “joint declaration of peace and friendship” but that innocuous name is masking what may be one of the most important political changes in East Africa in the past 20 years. With a simple, five-pillar agreement the presidents of Ethiopia and Eritrea, which were once one country but were bitterly divided by one of Africa’s most expensive and devastating conflicts, jointly declared its end... (Aljazeera)

Meet Souad Abderrahim – the first ever female Mayor of Tunis
Souad Abderrahim was a remarkable 53-year old pharmaceutical manager before she got elected by Tunis’ municipal office. She obtained 26 votes, 4 votes more than her opponent, Nidaa Tounes. “Abderrahim’s victory is one for the cause of women. It’s empowering in the sense that women can aspire now to be mayors and have leadership positions, regardless of their political affiliation or where they came from,” Ben Abdullah, a 27-year-old Tunisian woman and worker at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, told The National... (MySalaam)

China says its second-quarter GDP growth was 6.7%, meeting expectations
China on Monday posted second-quarter GDP growth of 6.7 percent from a year ago, slightly lower than 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018 as Beijing has been cracking down on risky credit amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S. The official reading was in line with expectations from analysts polled by Reuters. The headline figure was no surprise as any impact from current U.S.-China trade scuffles will only factor in the second half of the year, said Fraser Howie, an independent analyst... (CNBC)