2018/07/31 Political Anticipation - A Press Review GEAB by LEAP

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The GEAB view on Financial Crisis: 2018-2020, Turning a Dollar Rain into a Wealth Harvest
Apprehension goes hand-in-hand with financial matters. Last April, the alarmist IMF announcements predicted a huge crisis by 2020 linked to the level of global debt that ten years of ‘crisis management’ have not brought under control. Rather, US public debt has doubled in absolute terms (from $10,000 billion to $20,000 billion), the EU’s debt has increased from €8,000 billion to €12,000 billion, China has contributed 40% of the increase in world debt in 10 years. In this context, financiers are worried about the tendency towards protectionist retreat which appears to be behind the announcements of US customs duties on steel and aluminium. But are we really on the edge of a new financial crash?… (Selected fragment - GEAB 125)

China's four trump cards in the trade war
"Trade wars are good, and easy to win." So claims Donald Trump. Interesting, then, to look at how China's Xi Jinping is proving the U.S. president wrong on both accounts.Trump's description of trade wars as "good" is given the lie by strong criticism from fellow Republicans. One example: Senator Ben Sasse warning that the protectionist gambit is "going to make it 1929 again." ... (Nikkei Asian Rview)

The GEAB view on European Trade Agreements: 2019 - Swan Death
Brexit seemed to have opened up the long-awaited project of redefining the functioning and objectives of the European machine. But today Brussels prefers to boast about the UK's difficulties, and, thinking of itself as unavoidable, it is undertaking to unearth all its bottom drawer projects. Hence, over the heads of the citizens, a whole bunch of "CETA like" trade agreements (Japan, Mercosur, and soon New Zealand, Australia) are being passed, for the sake of a ‘gaping globalisation’ ideology which makes everyone flee, as well as a forced march towards an ultra-risky integration of the Balkans is being trigerred, ignoring peoples and not showing the slightest reference to any democratic process. Our team believes this European ‘hysteria’ is a swan song... (Selected fragment - GEAB 122)

Spain does U-turn on Cuba and Venezuela in favor of dialogue
The Spanish government is changing its relationship with Venezuela and Cuba. The new Socialist Party (PSOE) Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has decided to end the hard line followed by his predecessor Mariano Rajoy, of the Popular Party (PP), in favor of a new climate of “dialogue.”The decision was relayed by Foreign Minister Josep Borrell ... (El Pais)

Migrant crisis: Italy to accept arrivals until deal reached
Italy is to allow migrant rescue ships to dock until the EU reaches a deal to distribute new arrivals. Foreign Minister Enzo Moavero Milanesi said Italy would continue to accept vessels for five weeks while the EU renegotiated its existing policy. Italy's new right-wing government has taken a hard line on migration... (BBC) 

The far-right doesn’t have to win to set the legislative agenda
Across Europe, parties that have won less than one-quarter of the national vote are redefining the parameters of public debate and bringing ideas and policies that were once beyond the pale into the mainstream. Since 2015, when nativist parties began to chalk up impressive electoral triumphs from Provence to Pennsylvania, there has been much hand-wringing among establishment politicians and left-wing voters in Europe and the United States... (The Guardian)

The GEAB view on Urbanisation: Sheltering 2.5 billion new city dwellers
3.4 billion is the number of people currently living in rural areas. In developed countries, the urbanisation rate is 75%. We saw two months ago that India was at only 34% of urbanisation rate, with a potential for rural exodus of nearly 600 million people, taking into account population growth in rural areas for the next twenty years. Africa, with its 40% urbanisation, may have ‘only’ half a billion people to shelter in cities that do not yet exist. Adding the other areas of the world with high potential for urbanisation and the prospect of a global population of 10 billion people in 2050, it is 2.5 billion new city dwellers that will have to be housed by 2050... (Selected fragment - GEAB 126)

North Koreans frustrated about delay to end-of-war declaration, says son of former South Korean president Kim Dae-jung
North Korean officials are frustrated about the delay of an official declaration ending the Korean war, and China will need to join peace talks to stabilise the denuclearisation process, according to a son of a former South Korean president. Kim Hong-gul, chairman of the Korean Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation and son of the late Kim Dae-jung – who introduced South Korea’s “sunshine policy”, designed to soften Pyongyang’s attitude towards Seoul... (SCMP)

Iran becomes India's No. 2 oil supplier, ahead of Saudi: government data
Iran was the second-biggest oil supplier to Indian state refiners between April and June, India’s oil minister said on Monday, replacing Saudi Arabia as companies took advantage of steeper discounts offered by Tehran. India, Iran’s top oil client after China, shipped in 5.67 million tonnes, or about 457,000 barrels per day (bpd), of oil, from the country in the first three months of this fiscal year, Dharmendra Pradhan told lawmakers in a written reply... (Reuters)