2017/10/01 - Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

Peer-to-peer economy : Direct impact on real estate and hotel industry 

One of the arguments brought up by mayors against the massive Airbnb business in their cities is the direct impact on house prices (rentals and sales equally). Experts present pros and cons related to the actual impact of Airbnb, most of them considering it is minimal whilst others believe it contributes to a sharp rise in prices, of about 15% . According to the figures we have so far, the reality seems to be somewhere in between. The most tourist areas are often the most densely populated areas which already have a housing deficit increased by Airbnb. For example, in Paris (first Airbnb city in the world), there are 60,000 Airbnb offers out of a total of 1.36 million ...  (GEAB No 117 / Log in)

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The LEAP laboratory invites all GEAB subscribers to sponsor a student and offer them a free academic year subscription to the GEAB bulletin! Should you know a specific student around you who needs geopolitical and economic references, we invite you to become a sponsor. This 1+1 subscription offer is valid from September 1st, for the entire university year so we invite readers who have not yet subscribed or renewed this year to do so now in order to allow the selected student to receive all of this year’s bulletins for free. (GEAB registration offer)

Uber threatens to leave if Quebec insists on stricter rules  

Uber is threatening to cease operations in Quebec next month if the province doesn’t back down on new, stricter rules regulating the ride-hailing service. Jean-Nicolas Guillemette, director general of Uber Quebec, said the service will shut down Oct. 14 if nothing changes. On that date last year, the two sides agreed to a pilot project that allowed the ride-hailing company to operate... (CBC)

Multipolar world or Chinese world? 

The EU has all it needs to take its right place around the table of the multipolar world proposed by China. As their calls to the EU suggest, as well as their efforts to impose the BRICS logic, the world that China wants to show us is quite multipolar and not simply Chinese. Best proof was provided in June by the announcement of the New Development Bank (NDB, BRICS bank based in Shanghai) about the issuing bonds in 5 member countries denominated in their own currencies . The stabilised international monetary system that the Chinese have in mind is a multi-currency system, in which different currencies are gold-backed and no longer dollar-backed, the dollar going back to the list of major international currencies... (GEAB No.117 / Log in)

BRICS, SWIFT, Currencies… A GEAB reader’s comment on our last bulletin 

It goes without saying, that there are several prerequisites for national currencies usage: reliable economic and financial developments, economic demand of the currency, ability of the national currency to perform as the money abroad (payments, savings, exchange base, etc.), low level of transaction costs (favorable conditions for relations), legislation, that supports the access of foreign investors to financial markets of integrated groups, the image of the country. Actually, Chinese RMB is one of such currencies of BRICS integrated alliance. At the same time all national currencies of member countries, backed by economic requirements are widely used according to malty-national agreements...(LEAP)

Redefining Europe and the Europeans 

Traveling through Germany in the run-up to its federal election on September 24, one cannot help but be struck by the lingering signs of profound trauma from the 2015 refugee crisis. Suddenly and virtually without warning, nearly a million desperate people – mostly Syrians fleeing the carnage in their homeland – flocked to Germany. And while Germany may be Europe’s most bureaucratically well-managed country, even it was overwhelmed... (Handelsblatt)

Merkel survives election ‘earthquake’ 

Angela Merkel looks set to rule Germany for another four years together with liberals and greens, but there is a new troublemaker – the far-right AfD party – on the scene. The likely coalition emerged after exit polls on Sunday (24 September) said Merkel’s centre-right CDU/CSU party won with 32.5 percent and the centre-left SPD got its worst result in decades with 20 percent. Both mainstream parties lost dozens of seats, paving the way for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to burst into parliament with 13.5 percent. In some segments, for instance in the state of Saxony, or among men in the former East Germany, the AfD came top. (EUObserver)

Colm Tóibín: ‘Catalonia is a region in the process of reimagining itself’ 

In September 2015 as Catalonia faced elections in which the question of independence was at the top of the agenda, the Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy held a press conference with Angela Merkel, at which the German chancellor made clear her opposition to Catalan independence and her support for Rajoy...(The Guardian)

Catalonia, referendum on independence, October 1st, 2017: the EU is not the solution to the regionalisation issue

The electoral survey of October 1st looks very much like a remake of the one in 2014, when only the independentists had braved the security forces and went to the polls . Polls for the independence of Catalonia are down again compared to the peak of 2013 , and the non-independence parties, majoritarian in terms of votes (but minoritarian in terms of seats in the Catalan parliament) are against the vote... (GEAB No 117 / Log in)

EU 'confident' sugar sector is prepared for end of quota 

The European Commission thinks Europe's sugar industry is prepared, this weekend, for the end of the decades-old sugar quotas. "I am confident that, since the end date for sugar quotas was decided, the industry has positioned itself well to benefit from the opportunities which the end of sugar quotas presents," EU agriculture commissioner Phil Hogan said in a press statement on Friday (29 September)... (EUObserver)

Oil rises 26 cents, settling at $52.14, after surprise drop in US crude stockpiles 

Global oil prices fell on Wednesday while U.S. crude rallied, after crude stockpiles unexpectedly drew with refiners coming back online following Hurricane Harvey last month. U.S. crude for November delivery ended Wednesday’s session up 26 cents at $52.14, but stayed below five-month highs. Brent crude futures were down 68 cents, or 1.2 percent, at $57.76 a barrel by 1:38 p.m. ET (1838 GMT), slipping from 26-month highs. Both benchmarks remained on track for monthly gains on stronger demand as refiners along the U.S. Gulf Coast ramped up production after Harvey crippled capacity... (CNBC)

U.S. Sees ‘Four or Five’ Ways to Resolve North Korean Crisis 

The U.S. has gamed out four or five different scenarios for how the crisis with North Korea will be resolved, and “some are uglier than others,” National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster said as tensions remain high between the two countries. While McMaster said the threat from Pyongyang is “much further advanced” than anticipated and the Pentagon said the president has a “deep arsenal” to draw upon if needed, U.S. officials dismissed North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho’s comment that President Donald Trump’s warnings to Pyongyang at the United Nations amounted to a declaration of war... (Bloomberg)

China scraps rules for foreign firms 

China has abolished administrative rules for approval and management of representative offices of foreign companies, saying that the move is aimed at ensuring an open and fair business environment for foreign enterprises. The move comes after complaints from foreign enterprises and business associations that China has not delivered on long-standing promises of more openness and a fairer market, and it was announced just weeks before the upcoming 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), so further concrete measures are probably coming, a former top official and other experts said... (Global Times)