jueves, 28 de julio de 2016

2016/07/28 - Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

GEAB Summer Special Edition on Brexit will be released in a few days
In the interests of intellectual honesty and mutual education, a GEAB special edition will come out in the following days, giving an overview of chapters and articles which have addressed issues related to the British referendum in our previous bulletins. Even if our team has not always made the theoretical assumption that the "Bremain" would win in its analysis of the practical consequences of the referendum, we must still accept and explain briefly the error in our anticipation. Make sure you have your GEAB access codes available! (GEAB subscription page)

EuroBRICS Youth Platform and LEAP in Shangai for the Youth Innovation Competition on Global Governance 2016
Marie-Hélène Caillol, President of LEAP and some members of our Euro-BRICS Youth Platform are currently in Shangai for the Youth Innovation Competition on Global Governance (YICGG). The event is being hosted by the University of Fudan and Mrs Caillol has been invited as member of the jury. The YICGG2016 aims at gathering information about outstanding youths from all over the world and inject new vitality into the global governance in the framework of the United Nations’ 2030 development agenda... (LEAP)

Vicenza: dark heart of Italy's banking crisis where locals have lost millions
From a distance, Vicenza does not look like a city engulfed in turmoil. On the elegant Corso Andrea Palladio, named after the Renaissance architect whose work defines this city, a finely dressed woman clutches a Chanel handbag during her evening passeggiata. Locals sit back and enjoy their Campari spritz cocktails in the July heat. A black Maserati rolls slowly down the street... (The Guardian)

Can the World Deal With a New Bank Crisis?
As Europe braces for the release of its bank stress tests on Friday, the world could be on the verge of another banking crisis. The signs are obvious to all. The World Bank estimates the ratio of non-performing loans to total gross loans in 2015 reached 4.3 percent. Before the 2009 global financial crisis, they stood at 4.2 percent... (Bloomberg)

New legislation proposes to “bail in” Social Security
It was only a few weeks ago that I told you about the government’s annual report on Social Security. It was a veritable death sentence for the program. The Board of Trustees for Social Security (which includes the US Treasury Secretary) wrote that major parts of the program have already run out of money, and the rest of Social Security will run out of money in the next decade... (Sovereignman.com)

A former French minister will lead post-Brexit negotiations between the EU and Britain
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker appointed Michel Barnier, a former commissioner and an ex-minister, to lead negotiations to form a new relationship with Britain after it leaves the European Union. Barnier, a center-right politician who has been France's foreign minister and minister for agriculture, will take up his post on October 1... (Business Insider)

Euroscepticism: The EU's new normal
If euroscepticism was just a British disease and the UK voting to leave the Union on 23 June was the solution – as Liberation correspondent Jean Quatremer suggested in a recent article – then the EU’s dwindling band of cheerleaders could sleep comfortably in the knowledge that the anti-European contagion was containable. Unfortunately for them, British hostility towards the EU has already spread across a continent where euroscepticism is now the new normal... (EUObserver)

No Brexit talks for several months, EU’s Jean-Claude Juncker concedes
Britain will need months of preparation before Brexit talks can start, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said on Monday, chiding the government in London for not preparing better for the possibility of a ‘Leave’ vote... (Economic Times)

Oil steadies just above three-month lows on oversupply
Oil prices steadied just above three-month lows on Thursday as producers continued to pump more than needed, filling inventories, and economic growth prospects darkened. Brent crude oil LCOc1 was unchanged at $43.47 a barrel by 1215 GMT, after touching $42.88, its lowest since April 20. U.S. light crude CLc1 was up 20 cents at $42.12. U.S. government data on Wednesday showed a surprise rise in crude and gasoline inventories. The build added to an already huge global refined product glut just as slowing economic growth dents the demand outlook.. (Reuters)

Michael Bloomberg just summed up the election in one sentence
"Together, let's elect a sane, competent person." It's not a soaring campaign slogan, but it's the strongest argument for voting for Hillary Clinton — and it brought laughs and cheers when Michael Bloomberg said it at the Democratic National Convention on Wednesday night. This is the most important election of my lifetime, and also the strangest, because one candidate clears basic bars of sanity and competence and the other does not... (Business Insider)

Hollande embarks on tour to push for European ‘army’
French President François Hollande visited Portugal on Tuesday (19 July) and will stop over in Ireland on Thursday (21 July) in an attempt to reinforce the foundations of the EU, including fostering increased defence cooperation, following the terrorist attack in Nice last week.EurActiv France reports. François Hollande has had to cut short his planned European tour after the terrorist attack carried out in Nice during Bastille day celebrations last Thursday (14 July)... (Euractiv)

Murder of French priest opens a new frontier for Catholic church
Every year, the Vatican’s Agenzia Fides, which tracks the work of Catholic missionaries around the world, releases a grim list of how many of its own have been killed while serving the church. Last year, 13 priests were among the dead, most of whom were killed in the course of violent robberies, and nearly 400 church-affiliated workers have been murdered since 2000... (The Guardian)

EU-Turkey relations after the coup
The pro-democracy stance that contrasted the recent tentative coup in Turkey has dealt a significant blow to a long tradition of military tutelage and interventions in politics, and pushed away the danger of Turkey’s drifting along the pathway leading to a Syrian-style civil war, at least for now. This show of national unity in defence of democracy is unprecedented in Turkey’s history and, if used well by all players, could still constitute a basis to overcome the polarisation and divisiveness which characterise both Turkish politics and society and to create a more inclusive democratic regime... (EUobserver)

Merkel: attacks by asylum seekers 'mock' Germany
German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces the press after keeping a fairly low profile amid several attacks in Germany. She said that asylum seekers who commit attacks "mock" the country that welcomed them. Merkel broke off her summer holiday to address reporters in Berlin on Thursday and began by clarifying her stance on the issue of refugees in Germany. (Deutsche Welle)

Beijing slaps Japan, EU with steel duties
China on Sunday said it has started imposing anti-dumping tariffs on certain steel imports from the European Union, Japan and South Korea, as Beijing itself comes under fire for similar trade practices. Duties on the materials, used in power transformers and electric motors, will range from around 37 to as high as 46.3 per cent, the commerce ministry said on its website... (Business Standard)

Decoding Abenomics
At just three years of age, Japan's economic experiment is having a bit of a midlife crisis. The spring of 2013 -- when the central bank embarked on an unprecedentedly bold monetary easing program, the yen weakened past 100 to the dollar for the first time in four years, Toyota's per-share earnings tripled and Triumph International launched an "Abenomics" line of bra -- has long gone... (Bloomberg)

miércoles, 20 de julio de 2016

2016/07/19 Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

A multi-everything Middle-East
As anticipated by us three years ago , the multipolar method is also underway in the current reorganization of the Middle East. The main poles of the region, notably Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel (we noted at the time that their coexistence recreated the conditions for a multi-religious and multi-ethnic Middle-East in line with the multi-millennial nature of the region) are currently undergoing a seemingly paradoxical process of differentiation (they show more of their particularities) and of rapprochement (they express more clearly their need to work together)... (Read more in the GEAB 105)

Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin by LEAP : Free trial
Have you thought of getting a GEAB subscription for one year, but you would wish to test one bulletin first?
We are more than happy to send you a sample. Send us a message now, with the mail subject GEAB Free Trial and one bulletin will reach your mailbox in no time.
LEAP - member of the World Future Studies Federation
Laboratoire Europeen d'Anticipation Politique is now a member of WFSF (World Future Studies Federation)! WFSF is a UNESCO and UN consultative partner and global NGO with members in over 60 countries; bringing together academics, researchers, practitioners, students and futures-focused institutions. WFSF offers a forum for stimulation, exploration and exchange of ideas, visions, and plans for alternative futures, through long-term, big-picture thinking and radical change. WFSF has a long-standing commitment to truly global futures, meaning openness to creating alternative futures that embrace cultural diversity and individual difference... (LEAP)

S&P 500 Futures Rise as Turkish Lira Rebounds After Failed Coup
Financial markets showed signs of resilience following a failed coup attempt in Turkey, with the lira leading a recovery in developing-nation currencies and U.S. equity-index futures gaining ground. Haven assets including the yen, gold and Treasuries fell... (Bloomberg)

Turkey coup could threaten country’s Nato membership, suggests John Kerry
Turkey could fall foul of Nato’s « requirement with respect to democracy » if it fails to uphold the rule of law in the wake of an attempted coup, the US Secretary of State John Kerry has warned. The Turkish government’s response to the failed coup has alarmed both the US and the EU, after it described the plotters as a « cancer » which had to be « cleansed » from public institutions... (The Independent)

Europe in 2009 could end up in the hands of the post modern great grand sons of Hitler, Franco, Mussolini and Petain. Franck Biancheri, 1998
The scenario elaborated by Franck Biancheri in 1998 in his article “Europe in 2009 could end up in the hands of the post modern great grand sons of Hitler, Franco, Mussolini and Petain” is being realized in front of us. Franck Biancheri determined that the changeover would be when the “antidemocratic and xenophobic parties will reach scores between 20 and 30% in a minimum of 7 Member-States.” Today the populist, nationalist, separatists, anti-democratic, xenophobic forces have invaded the political space in Europe... (LEAP)

6 things to know about Jill Stein, Israel-bashing last Jewish candidate standing
Voters who have their hearts set on supporting a left-wing secular Jew running an insurgent campaign still have a candidate. Jill Stein, the 2012 Green Party candidate, is making another run. And this year, with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both earning historically low popularity ratings, she hopes she can attract at least some of Bernie Sanders’ 13 million Democratic primary voters... (Times of Israel)

Ireland Hits Brexit Alarm in Biggest Foreign Crisis in 50 Years
The prime minister is under pressure, economists are slashing growth forecasts and companies are warning of Brexit’s dire consequences. London? No, Dublin. The intertwining of trade and finance means no other country is feeling the fallout from the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union more than Ireland. In the year the Irish marked the centenary of their uprising against British rule, the country remains at the mercy of the unfolding drama in its closest neighbor... (Bloomberg)

Barack Obama condemns killing of three police officers in Baton Rouge shooting
Three police officers were killed after a gunfight in Baton Rouge, Louisiana on Sunday and three injured, one critically. The gunman was also killed, and police said they do not believe any other suspects currently threaten the city. (The Guardian)

Common interests and communication boost EU-China partnership
Strengthened communication and common interests contribute to fostering a sound partnership between China and the European Union, according to scholars and experts attending an event dubbed the Belt & Road Initiative and EU-China Partnership, in Beijing on Saturday... (China Daily)

Sanctions Against Russia Aggravate Problems of Diplomacy – Former French PM
According to de Villepin, diplomacy is currently in danger, as the main arguments of the international community over the last decades were an exclusion of countries from dialogue, sanctions and military operations. « Excessive use of economic sanctions has crippled the diplomatic bilateral understanding. Demonization — that is contrary to what diplomacy should do... (Sputnik)

9/11 report’s classified ’28 pages’ about potential Saudi Arabia ties released
The Obama administration has released the long-classified 28 pages of the official congressional report on the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, which concerned the alleged ties of the Saudi Arabian government to the 9/11 hijackers. Publishing the long-awaited pages 13 years after they were first classified, the White House insisted they show no link between Saudi Arabia and the hijackers who carried out the terrorist attacks... (The Guardian)

Kenya May Ink EU Trade Deal Alone as Brexit Spooks Neighbors
Kenya may abandon 10 years of negotiating a trade deal with the European Union as part of the regional East African Community bloc and go it alone, to avoid having duties of as much as 30 percent slapped on its exports from October. A so-called Economic Partnership Agreement between Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi and the EU is on hold after Tanzania’s government said two weeks ago it’s reluctant to sign any deal.. (Bloomberg)

Premier Li wins backing over South China Sea at ASEM Summit
In Mongolia over the weekend, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s effort to promote China’s stance on the South China Sea issue received broad support during the 11th Asian-Europe Meeting (ASEM) Summit. Li said Saturday before he returned to China that the South China Sea arbitration award will have no impact on China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime interests... (China Daily)

martes, 5 de julio de 2016

2016/07/05 Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

Balkanization and returning empires in Central and Eastern Europe
The biggest failure in the past 30 years of European integration is related to the enlargement policy of the ex-Soviet countries. This policy, essentially driven by the greed of Western European companies (and beyond), was carried on at the cost of the continent’s political integration as a whole, but particularly of that of the Eastern populations. We have often mentioned the low turnout in the European elections for this Eastern region, once so eager to enter the EU. The Eastern part of the EU is now a patchwork of countries driven by different motivations, integrated to different degrees and crossed by interests of all kinds. The risk of disintegration and conflicts is enormous and threatens the European project... (GEAB by LEAP / June 2016)

EU must change ‘ideological’ policy on Russia, says Slovak FM
The EU needs to redefine its relations with Russia and evaluate economic sanctions, Slovakia’s foreign minister has said. “We need to redefine relationships and put it on realistic ground,” Miroslav Lajcak told journalists in Bratislava on Thursday (30 June) a day before Slovakia takes the six-month presidency of the EU Council. He said the EU had been “too ideological”, with western members states being “hypocritical” and eastern members “unrealistic”... (EUObserver)

Why elections are bad for democracy
Brexit is a turning point in the history of western democracy. Never before has such a drastic decision been taken through so primitive a procedure – a one-round referendum based on a simple majority. Never before has the fate of a country – of an entire continent, in fact – been changed by the single swing of such a blunt axe, wielded by disenchanted and poorly informed citizens... (The Guardian)

Europe, lacking an anchor, in the middle of the raging sea
For more than eight years now, the GEAB has also been describing a wide transition from a Western-centered world to a multi-polar world, showing its countless opportunities, but, above all, the dangers presented by such a reconfiguration whenever it is poorly controlled. Thus, we constantly call for the democratic anchoring of the integrated Europe ... which is essentially just an anchoring; we also call for the involvement of Europe at all new tables for debates aimed at rethinking governance at all levels, mainly at the Euro-BRICS table, which has such a potential for positive change. All crises which have crossed Europe since 2008-2009 have had as characteristics... (Excerpt - GEAB 99 by LEAP)

Russia to empty one of its sovereign funds next year - ministry proposal
Russia will exhaust one of its two sovereign funds next year, according to a finance ministry proposal seen by Reuters, having by that point run through $87 billion since the beginning of 2014 to fill holes in the budget left by a slump in oil prices. Russia will also spend over the next three years about a third of another of its funds on covering the budget shortfall, the proposal showed, even though that fund was originally intended to cover long-term deficits in the pension system... (Reuters)

Bye-Bye to the European Sky?
Shares in EasyJet, Ryanair, and British Airways-owner International Consolidated Airlines Group have fallen dramatically since the U.K. voted to leave the European Union on fears the British carriers could lose access to the EU’s single aviation market. Analysts on Credit Suisse’s Global Markets team have identified a possible flight path that would enable the airlines to safely navigate their way around the Brexit turbulence... (The Financialist)

When will the White House tell us the whole truth about drone killings?
The Situation Room, a commander-in-chief with rapidly graying hair, a cluster of grim-faced men and women debating the ethics and the legality of a killing. This is how the Obama administration has for years sought to portray its notorious global drone killing program: cautious, calculated and as conscientious as possible... (The Guardian)

Waging America’s Wars Using Renewable Energy
A major player in U.S. renewable energy happens to be a five-sided building in Virginia usually associated with deployment of power rather than consumption of it. The U.S. Department of Defense is the second-largest buyer of renewable electricity through deals meant to lock in long-term supply and provide incentives to developers of wind and solar projects, according to a database of more than 600 corporate power-purchase agreements (PPA) tracked by Bloomberg New Energy Finance... (Bloomberg)

Report: Berlin wants Juncker to resign as EU commission chief
Berlin is piling on pressure for European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker to step down, according to the Sunday Times. The newspaper reported that German chancellor Angela Merkel is unhappy with how Juncker handled the lead up to Britain’s exit from the EU as well as his plans to take charge of its exit negotiations. An unnamed German minister told the paper that pressure for Juncker “to resign will only become greater and chancellor Merkel will eventually have to deal with this next year”... (EUObserver)

A Prime Minister, a Referendum and Italy’s Turn to Get Worried
It’s now a familiar refrain: A European prime minister calls a referendum, his job could be on the line and markets are getting worried. This time it’s not Britain’s David Cameron but Italy’s Matteo Renzi, who has called a vote on an ambitious overhaul of the political system aimed at ending the country’s unstable governments. If he loses, Renzi has promised to quit, an outcome that Citigroup Inc. called probably the biggest risk in European politics this year outside the U.K... (Bloomberg)

Diplomatic ties help Israel defang international criticism
Ahead of the release last week of a report on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by the Quartet of Middle East mediators, the word from diplomats was that it would be hard-hitting, especially on Israel and its settlement building. The United States, the European Union and the United Nations were fed up with Israel's consistent violation of international law, which views all settlements on occupied land as illegal, diplomats said... (Reuters)

Can your smartphone really handle all your finances?
Would you be prepared to manage all your finances through your smartphone? This is the hope of many financial technology - fintech - start-ups aiming to transform our money management habits. They think we now trust our mobile technology enough to carry out banking, money transfers, investments and loan applications without ever stepping into a bank branch or writing a cheque. But are they right? ... (BBC)

Western Retreat Makes Room for Chinese Advance
As the West retreats from globalization—the Brexit vote was just the latest, though the most startling, manifestation of a populist trend—expect a new force to fill the gap. China has been rehearsing for this moment for years. In a global economy starved of growth and investment, it has both momentum and deep pockets. Its leaders are energized by the kind of international ambition that possessed the U.S. when it reshaped postwar Europe with the Marshall Plan... (WSJ)

Turkish Leader Erdogan Making New Enemies and Frustrating Old Friends
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey spoke at a Ramadan feast at his palace last month in Ankara. Credit Yasin Bulbul/Presidential ... (NY Times)