2018/06/20 - Political Anticipation - A GEAB by LEAP Press review

The Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB 126 / June edition) is now online !  2020-2040: Exponential global development The world is on the brink of a wave of unprecedented development which is poised to sweep over the Middle East, Africa, India, Southeast Asia, the United States and the planet as a whole. The foundations on which this new world will be built are becoming clearer and clearer: A globalised electric grid, networks of financial centres, new commercial roads, crypto-currencies, e-economies, reinvented global governance etc. All these provide the infrastructure which will shape this unimaginable phase of multipolar and multiconnected development, which we will attempt to describe in the following paragraphs... Public announcement (free content) Chapters not to miss (registration required):  - Exponential or explo-sive? - E-economy: We haven't seen anything yet. - Cryptocurrencies... changing our relation to money. - Power/electrical energy supply: Optimisation of invariants. - Global Electricity Grid or World Energy Community. - Summary map of the Internet of tomorrow’s finance. - Urbanisation: Sheltering 2.5 billion new city dwellers. - Governance 4.0: Chinese or collaborative? - Old World: Other problematic issues. ______________________________________________ Geopolitics / Summer 2018: A leap into the unknown... with no safety net For the past two years, we have been witnessing the meticulous dismantling of the world order that has prevailed since 1945. Unable to adapt to new realities, this world order began to break up in 2001. However, in the last two years, the national units that make up this international system have made a decided exit from such constraining and obsolete structures. Obviously, Brexit is emblematic of this process. However, the phenomenon has accelerated a lot since that decision was made, as we shall see. Clearly, we are approaching a day of reckoning: Freed from their constraints, the nations are now floundering, with no fixed point in sight to cling to. We have already mentioned the risks of shakiness and panic reactions, potentially leading decision-makers to make bad decisions that are likely to produce dramatic chain reactions. We believe that this summer could see this kind of "accident". Everything seems to be gathering together for a perfect storm... Chapters not to miss (registration required):  - A floundering European Union. - A moribund NATO. - From the Gulf Cooperation Council to the Saudi-Emirati Coordination Council. - Remembrance of the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process. - Even OPEC! - A Summer full of perils. ______________________________________________ Europe 2019-2024: From an agricultural crisis to a food crisis? The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which is supposed to guarantee food independence and food quality for all Europeans, has been in crisis for many years without the citizens seeing any simple and coherent project appearing on the horizon of their common alimentary future. The issues are quite obvious however: European arable lands must produce food for the Europeans. As second priority, within the limits of the maintenance of a healthy agriculture (food quality) and respect for the environment, the surpluses can provide material for exportation. Agricultural production must be accessible to all on the continent and farmers should be able to live decently from their work... Chapters not to miss (registration required):  - Increasing interest shown by European citizens. - Principles of open competition with adverse effects not addressed. - Food autonomy threatened by Chinese investments and needs. - The dangers of new free trade agreements. - The gap between environmental objectives and policies. - Threats at every level. ______________________________________________ Investments, trends and recommendations A reminder that our recommendations are not for speculative purposes, therefore short-term, that they don’t aim to win more, but rather to lose less (or nothing at all) because in the case of a global systemic crisis like the one we are currently experiencing, this is actually the only rational objective. Advice not to miss (registration required):  - Chinese market: doors opening. - New banks: beware. - Real estate: Owning your home, it's over. - Your information system: diversify by sectors.

El pròxim 28 de juny se celebra el Dia Internacional de l'Orgull LGTBI. El moviment LGTBI reclama aquest 2018 la igualtat de les persones trans.

València, 12 de juny de 2018   Benvolgut/uda company i companya, El pròxim 28 de juny se celebra el Dia Internacional de l'Orgull  LGTBI. El moviment LGTBI reclama aquest 2018 la igualtat de  les persones trans. Amb el lema “Conquerim la igualtat, TRANSformen la societat”,  reivindiquem la societat diversa en la qual vivim el dissabte que  ve 16 de juny de 2018 en la manifestació convocada pel  col·lectiu Lambda en la ciutat de València. El nostre partit és un ferm defensor dels drets de les persones  LGTBI i participarem de forma molt visible i destacada en  aquesta manifestació amb un autobús. Qualsevol militant o simpatitzant podrà participar al costat del  nostre partit i pujar a l’autobús. No més es requereix la  inscripció prèvia mitjançant el següent link.  https://goo.gl/forms/DDKWsHOGzQHJJi7I3  ja que  l’aforament està limitat a 100 persones. Qualsevol dubte pots escriure’ns a orgullpspv@gmail.com T’esperem a les 19:00h. en la porta de la Mar de València.

Rosa Peris Cervera Secretària d’Igualtat CEN PSPV-PSOE     María Sánchez Alepuz Secretària de LGTBI CEN PSPV-PSOE José Muñoz Lladró Secretari d’Organització CEN PSPV-PSOE

Puig reivindica el diálogo con el nuevo Gobierno central en materia de inversiones, financiación y avances sociales

- El president ha defendido acuerdos en "temas fundamentales" como educación o infraestructuras
- El jefe del Consell ha recordado que "el acuerdo de la Conferencia de Presidentes continúa vigente y así lo vamos a exigir"


València (05.06.18). El president de la Generalitat, Ximo Puig, ha reivindicado ante Les Corts el diálogo con el nuevo Gobierno central desde una "lealtad reivindicativa" en materias como inversiones, financiación y avances sociales.

"Nuestra hoja de ruta en la Comunitat Valenciana es el Acuerdo del Botànic, ahí es donde tenemos que avanzar y ahí es donde vamos a interlocutar con el Gobierno de España", ha afirmado Puig durante la sesión de control de la cámara valenciana, en la que ha añadido que es posible establecer "un diálogo efectivo" con el nuevo Ejecutivo central.

Respecto a la financiación autonómica, el responsable del Gobierno valenciano ha manifestado que para el Consell "el acuerdo de la Conferencia de Presidentes continúa vigente y así lo vamos a exigir", de forma que "se cumpla la palabra dada por parte del presidente anterior".

Por otra parte, el president ha recordado que el Consell pedirá al nuevo Gobierno la retirada del recurso de inconstitucionalidad de la Ley de Función Social de la Vivienda interpuesto por el anterior gabinete.

Además, Puig ha apuntado que existen "algunas señales" de posible sintonía entre el Gobierno y el Consell, como el peso dado a la cartera de Igualdad, la preocupación por la pobreza infantil o la orientación en política europea.

Feminista, progresista, modernizador, europeísta

Las ministras y ministros del Gobierno de Pedro Sánchez han prometido su cargo en Zarzuela con novedades en la fórmula elegida: "Consejo de ministras y de ministros", fórmula que refleja la presencia histórica de mujeres en el ejecutivo. Todas las ministras y ministros del Gobierno ha optado, como lo hizo el presidente Sánchez por primera vez en democracia, por prometer los cargos sin Biblia ni crucifijo.

Todas las ministras y los ministros del Gobierno de Pedro Sánchez han elegido la fórmula de prometer su cargo ante el Rey Felipe VI en el Palacio de la Zarzuela. Lo han hecho, al igual que el propio Sánchez, ante un ejemplar de la Constitución española y en ausencia de símbolos religiosos. Varios de ellos han innovado en la fórmula prometiendo mantener en secreto la deliberación del consejo de ministras y ministros, en referencia a la mayoría de mujeres que forman el gabinete. 
La fórmula la ha estrenado la vicepresidenta y titular de Igualdad, Carmen Calvo, que ha sido la segunda en prometer el cargo tras la titular de Justicia, Dolores Delgado. La mayor parte de sus compañeros ha repetido este método. El ejemplar de la Constitución estaba abierto por el artículo 100, en el que se establece que "los demás miembros del Gobierno serán nombrados y separados por el Rey, a propuesta de su Presidente".
Los miembros del nuevo gabinete, cuyos nombramientos se han publicado este jueves en el Boletín Oficial del Estado, en presencia del jefe del Ejecutivo, de los presidentes del Congreso y del Senado, Ana Pastor y Pío García-Escudero; del Consejo General del Poder Judicial (CGPJ), Carlos Lesmes y del Tribunal Constitucional, Juan José González Rivas.
La primera en prometer su cargo ha sido la titular de Justicia, Dolores Delgado, que posteriormente ha ejercido como notaria mayor del Reino en los actos de promesa de sus ahora compañeros de gabinete. Después y siguiendo el orden en que se han publicado sus nombramientos en el Boletín Oficial del Estado, ha prometido el cargo la vicepresidenta, ministra de Presidencia, Relaciones con las Cortes e Igualdad, Carmen Calvo.
A continuación han prometido el ministro de Asuntos Exteriores, de Unión Europea y de Cooperación, Josep Borrell; la ministra de Defensa, Margarita Robles; Hacienda, María Jesús
Montero; Interior, Fernando Grande-Marlaska; Fomento: José Luis Ábalos; Educación y de Formación Profesional: Isabel Celáa. Después se ha acercado a la mesa la nueva ministra de Trabajo, Magdalena Valerio; seguida por la de Industria, Comercio y Turismo, Reyes Maroto; Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación, Luis Planas y a continuación la vicepresidenta y ministra de Presidencia, Relaciones con las Cortes e Igualdad: Carmen Calvo. La siguiente ha sido la ministra de Política Territorial y Función Pública, Meritxell Batet; la titular para la Transición Ecológica, Teresa Ribera; el ministro de Cultura y Deporte, Màxim Huerta; la ministra de Economía y Empresa, Nadia Calviño; la de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar social: Carmen Montón y, por último, el ministro de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades: Pedro Duque.
Después de que los 17 hayan cumplido el trámite, el Rey ha posado con todos ellos.

2018-06-05 - Political Anticipation - A GEAB by LEAP Press review

Europe 2018-2022: Environmental Agenda Setback In the West, the environmental agendas are preparing for serious setbacks. Here are some of the reasons leading us to this conclusion: the discrediting of some ecological movements due to their perceived NIMBY (Not in My Back-Yard) attitude; the US withdrawal from the environmental agenda; questions about some fundamental principles such as “is global warming the right fight?”, and “are renewable energies the right solutions; also noteworthy is the questioning of the all-electric future in terms of motor vehicles, as the enormous electricity needs linked to this strategy defy the desired protection effect for the environment... (GEAB by LEAP / No 122) Germany wants answers on US ambassador’s remarks The German Foreign Ministry says it wants clarity about controversial comments made by the new US ambassador, Richard Grenell. In an interview with Breitbart News he said he hopes to “empower” Europe’s conservatives... (Deutsche Welle) France, Britain to sail warships in contested South China Sea to challenge Beijing France and Britain will sail warships through the South China Sea to challenge Beijing’s expanding military presence in the disputed waters, their defence ministers said on Sunday. The two countries, both permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, made the remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, echoing the latest US plan to ramp up its freedom of navigation operations to counter Beijing’s militarisation in the region and its stance that territorial disputes should be a matter between China and its Asian neighbours... (SCMP) Turkey slams Macron over Erdogan magazine cover support Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has slammed French President Emmanuel Macron over his support for a French magazine’s cover calling President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a “dictator”. The Weekly French Magazine Le Point splashed a photo of the Turkish president on the cover of its May 24 edition with words that read: “The dictator. How far will Erdogan go?”... (Aljazeera) United Kingdom 2019: What if Brexit proved to be a success story? So far, the media and political analysts have been unanimous: Brexit represents an uncertain and dangerous future only for the UK. Our readers know that we have always been more circumspect about this. Now that the first phase of negotiations has been completed (at the end of last year) and the second phase is about to start, it is time to admit that this exit from the EU also opens up many opportunities for the UK and that it creates new risks for the EU. Within this second phase of negotiations, which will focus on the transition period and the future relationship between the two parties, the balance of power could indeed reverse... (GEAB by LEAP / No123) French bank SocGen agrees with US to pay $1 billion in penalties over bribery, manipulation France’s second-biggest bank Societe Generale has agreed with the US to pay penalties exceeding $1 billion to settle allegations it bribed officials in Libya, and manipulated the Libor interest rate benchmark. In a statement issued by the US Department of Justice on Monday, French bank Societe Generale (SocGen) and one of its subsidiaries agreed to pay the penalties to settle the cases... (Deutsche Welle) Microsoft Overtakes Google In Market Valuation Software giant Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) on Tuesday surpassed Google-parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL, GOOG) to become the third-most valuable company with a market valuation of $753 billion. MSFT is currently trading at $98.84, up $0.88 or 0.85%, which gives it a market cap of $759.6 billion... (Nasdaq) Mass protests in Jordan push out prime minister Jordanian Prime Minister Hani Mulki resigned from his government position Monday in the wake of several days of mass protests in the capital Amman — the country’s largest demonstrations in more than five years. The resignation, reported by Reuters quoting an official source, was said to have been brokered during a meeting with the country’s King Abdullah II, who called for “national dialogue” in the wake ... (CNBC) Qatar’s Year of Solitude: A Gulf Embargo’s Impact in Six Charts It’s been a year since shocked investors sold off Qatari assets after a Saudi Arabia-led group of nations severed economic and diplomatic ties with the gas-rich country. While the standoff shows no sign of ending, pressure on Qatari assets has eased. Bets against the nation’s long-held dollar peg have subsided and the government managed this year’s largest sovereign bond sale in the Middle East and Africa... (Bloomberg) Petroyuan and Saudi Arabia: From the temptation of the US "Military QE" to the creation of a Middle East 3.0 The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle East, the world's powder keg, and on the tensions emerging around Lebanon, involving nothing less than protagonists like the United States, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran. The details of this affair send chills up our spines with the resignation/withdrawal of a prime minister (the pro-Saudi Lebanese Saad Hariri), the Israeli-Saudi rapprochement against Hezbollah, the Houthi missiles (Yemen) fired at Riyadh, the involvement of Iran in the latter event by Saudi Arabia... (GEAB by LEAP / No 119) How a letter by a Catholic archbishop incensed India’s BJP A letter the Catholic Archbishop of Delhi sent to all parish priests working in India’s capital city has created a furore in the country’s already charged political scene. In the letter dated May 8, Archbishop Anil Coutorequested parish priests to start a year-long prayer campaign to save India from the “turbulent political atmosphere”, which “poses a threat to the democratic principles enshrined in our constitution and the secular fabric of our nation”... (Aljazeera) At Western-led summit, Chinese find controversy and a clash of cultures A war of words between China and the United States at a regional security summit over the weekend has again highlighted the difficulty a rising China faces as it tries to navigate the international system and engage in dialogue with the West. Beijing’s low-level delegation found itself at the centre of controversy during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore ... (SCMP)