viernes, 23 de febrero de 2018

2018/02/20 - Political Anticipation - A GEAB by LEAP Press review

US Debt / Inflation: The FED as a support tool for Mr Trump’s objectives
At the beginning of February, the US stock markets, followed by the financial markets of the rest of the world, experienced a violent correction. In two days, the Dow Jones Index erased its January gains and entered a downward spiral. Since then, the financial world has been looking feverish. The correction developed its own momentum, due, particularly, to the impact of new volatility derivatives. However, its real starting point was on February 2nd, when the January trend of hourly wage growth was published; it rose by 2.9% after 2.6% last December. That acceleration caused the market to fear a faster monetary tightening than expected in the United States and, consequently, a slowdown in economic growth. After nine years of continuous rise – one of the longest in Wall Street history – the US market is now getting overvalued and, consequently, any downward growth revision immediately translates into massive profit taking... (Free public announcement)

European Trade Agreements – 2019: Death of the Swan
Brexit seemed to have opened up the long-awaited project of redefining the functioning and objectives of the European machine. But today Brussels prefers to boast about the UK's difficulties, and, thinking of itself as unavoidable, it is undertaking to unearth all its bottom drawer projects. Hence, over the heads of the citizens, a whole bunch of "CETA like" trade agreements (Japan, Mercosur, and soon New Zealand, Australia) are being passed, for the sake of a ‘gaping globalisation’ ideology which makes everyone flee, as well as a forced march towards an ultra-risky integration of the Balkans is being trigerred, ignoring peoples and not showing the slightest reference to any democratic process. Our team believes this European ‘hysteria’ is a swan song; both the creator and the announcer of the violent halt to be imposed on the central European institution by the up-coming legislative body from 2019 on... (Read full report - GEAB 112)

Calendar of future events: February-May 2018
The future is full of factual data on which must be based anticipations that shed light on our decisions. That's why, once a quarter, our team shares with GEAB readers this ‘raw’ data of its work in the form of an annnotated calendar for the next three months; a calendar which everyone can adapt to their own concerns; a simple and original illuminating tool. 

February 9-25 - PyeongChang, South Korea: The Winter Olympic Games
As we already mentioned in the ‘up and down trends’ of last month, the only interesting thing to anticipate around these Winter Olympic Games is the rapprochement between North and South Korea. Contrary to what some in the media are trying to make us believe, South Korea has invited North Korea to take part in these Games. It has also chosen a strategic location in the middle of the whole Korean Peninsula and in a city with a name very similar to that of the North Korean capital (PyongYang/PyongChang)... (Read full report - GEAB 112)

March 23 - Russia: Presidential election
The most dangerous enemy, Navalny, has been eliminated and is now fighting for a boycott of the elections. Eight candidates are in the running in this coming election, presenting a diverse political class (communists, nationalists, liberals..) that is still very artificial. One of the candidates, Ksenia Sobchak, is the subject of much media attention, Russian as well as American. She has no chance of winning, but says this is not her goal. She prefers to position herself to modestly obtain a seat in the Duma in the upcoming parliamentary elections of 2021 and advocates smooth change. She is the daughter of the former mayor of St. Petersburg, who was a supporter of Putin - who originates from St. Petersburg himself... (Read full report - GEAB 112)
Mr Catastrophe - GEAB, a series of brief alerts
In this short column, we are discussing, in the form of brief alerts, several risks that our bulletin cannot develop further, but concerning which we want, nevertheless, to warn our readers.​ 

Syria once again
The American camp seemed to be failing for some time, leaving the way open to the Russian camp to calm the situation. But now it is reorganised, surrounded by countries whose interests it was already representing. All the great proxy-players of the Syrian war are now revealed: on one side, the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kurdistan; and on the other: Russia, Iran, Turkey, Palestine. Under the cover of a common war against the ISIS, these enemies are now gathering on the same ground, especially around the oil wells (ISIS, legitimate Syrian forces, Americans, Russians...). Israel will not abandon the camp either; it will never accept a regime favourable to Iran completing the Shiite Iran-Mediterranean Sea corridor on their northern border...(Read full report - GEAB 112)

South America tilting over
This year's South American electoral calendar is jam-packed and the tilting towards the right wing is a dominant trend. But there are places of resistance with a Bolivarian spirit, even considerable ones: Venezuela is holding on and could be joined by Mexico soon. Right or left leaning, hard nationalist political regimes are being put into power everywhere. The desperate corruption associated with the oil price crisis has severely affected the American sub-continent, as well as the emergence of a new generation with very different aspirations compared to those of their elders. This creates polarising axes throughout the  
region. The madness brought on by the economic forces and their belief that only the right-wing harmonisation of South America could allow its integration, is degenerating... (Read full report - GEAB 112)

The BRICS disappear in the quicksands
The recent resignation of South African President Jacob Zuma has a lot to do with a modern social, political, and institutional crisis, but also with his choice to join the BRICS . His replacement, Cyril Ramaphosa, could show much less enthusiasm for South Africa's participation in BRICS bodies and agendas. However, we do not anticipate an exit from South Africa. To block the BRICS' dynamics, it is even more effective to keep countries with little motivation inside. Between Brazil, India and now South Africa, the BRICS countries are indeed losing their way... which is not good news... (Read full report - GEAB 112)

Resultado de imagen de environmental agendasThe Environment: a crisis of refinition
In the West, the environmental agendas are preparing, according to our team, for serious setbacks. Here are some of the reasons leading us to this conclusion: The discrediting of some ecological movements due to their perceived NIMBY (Not in My Back-Yard) attitude: after fighting for waste recycling plants, for example, they fight for these factories not to be installed in their own neighbourhood. The US withdrawal from the environmental agenda: even if this is good news in the medium term, because the USA was rather a blocking player than voluntary participant, this withdrawal puts on hold some aspects of the implementation of the calendar...(Read full report - GEAB 112)
Investments, trends and recommendations

Oil: Bottom down
The US announcements of oil production effect (we moved overnight from the ‘explosion of production’ to ‘less than expected production’ ) have resulted in a yo-yo price, which is fluctuating now around $60 a barrel. This is a policy which probably reflects the tension between divergent US interests: on the one hand, those who need a high price to speculate or invest in their drilling (including shale oil/gas producers who rush into the investments brought by Donald Trump's tax measures) and those who prefer a weak rate to be able to feed a theoretically booming economy, but without financial means. For speculators, quick profit-taking is at your fingertips, but watch out... (Read full report - GEAB 112)

Businesses: beware of bankruptcies galore
As announced by our team, 2018 is a dangerous year. And do not think that bankruptcies are reserved for retail business only. They will affect all sectors. From mass distribution to arms sales, the major groups are restructuring. For example, the construction industry with Carillion in Great Britain, the arming industry with Remington in the US (which filed for bankruptcy), energy companies with Philadelphia Energy Solutions (the biggest oil refinery on the US East Coast) and Westinghouse Electric (the US nuclear subsidiary of Toshiba), airlines with Air Berlin (costing Berlin 200 million euros)... (Read full report - GEAB 112)

Resultado de imagen de Bitcoin and cryptocurrency: everything is under control LEAPBitcoin and cryptocurrency: everything is under control
We wonder if talking about bitcoin once more this month was really useful. After the vertiginous peaks that this cryptocurrency reached, we witnessed its equally vertiginous fall. During January only, reports mentioned 44.2 billion losses in a market worth $200 billion. We continue to believe major players manipulated the prices upwards to achieve very quick high profits on the backs of the naive...(Read full report - GEAB 112)