lunes, 29 de agosto de 2016

2016/08/26 Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

Internet, artificial intelligence, robotics: 2040, from human enhancement to human … obsolescence?
The political anticipation method applied by the GEAB reveals that long-term trends are strong undercurrents on which short-term trends usually evolve. So, when our team commits to primarily anticipate phases of the crisis on the horizon in several years, it takes into serious consideration these structural macro-trends. For example, the tenable dethronement of oil as the ultra-dominant energy source is the macro-trend which allowed us to anticipate its short-term price collapse and its medium-term non-recovery... (Read the article published in the GEAB No 103)

Welcome to the Exclusive GEAB Readers' Club !
The confidential letter named "GEAB" is a monthly analysis support, the ultimate tool in crisis management. It is showing you the importance of anticipation (be it political or financial) in your work. When it comes to decision making, is it politics which rules the finance world or the other way around? Should you be afraid of the crisis? If you are an investor, consultant, economist, researcher, trainer, entrepreneur, or just someone interested in geopolitics, the GEAB bulletin is meant for you. (Register and receive the GEAB bulletins, it is quick and easy)

Norway to Rely on Gas Dominance for Key Role in Brexit Talks
Norway is counting on its massive exports of natural gas to the U.K. to give it an advantage in talks as Britain struggles to extract itself from the European Union. The U.K.’s so-called Brexit vote has not only thrown its relationship with the EU wide open but also called into question how it will continue trading with Norway, its North Sea neighbor outside the bloc on which it relies for almost 40 percent of its natural gas... (Bloomberg)

Heads of Germany, France, Italy to discuss ‘Relaunching Europe’ after Brexit vote
The leaders of Germany, France and Italy will meet on Monday to discuss how to keep the European project together in the second set of talks between the premiers of the euro zone’s three largest economies since Britain’s shock vote to leave the bloc... (Newsweek)

Why the days of Western banks in Asia are clearly numbered
N. Balakrishnan says the rising might of Eastern rivals and their own eroded reputations indicate that Western lenders, often guilty of bad choices, may become just a historical footnote within a generation . Many people already know that Chinese banks are some of the largest in the world. But I was astonished to learn recently that some banks in India have a market capitalisation greater than the mighty Deutsche Bank. One is the HDFC Bank, founded in 1977... (SCMP)

Brexit unlikely before 2019
When Theresa May launched her campaign in Birmingham last month (11 July) to become the next leader of the UK’s Conservative party, she made the now famous promise that “Brexit means Brexit”, adding that she would “make a success of it”. However, she never said when it would actually happen.... (EUObserver)

Provoking nuclear war by media – John Pilger
The exoneration of a man accused of the worst of crimes, genocide, made no headlines. Neither the BBC nor CNN covered it. The Guardian allowed a brief commentary. Such a rare official admission was buried or suppressed, understandably. It would explain too much about how the rulers of the world rule.... (

Email scandal reveals institutional corruption in US
The US democracy is always talked about by some American politicians as a model for other countries. However, a recent email scandal over Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton may turn upside down some people’s view of its so-called democracy. The emails leaked by WikiLeaks showed Democratic Party leaders had sought to undermine the campaign of Clinton’s rival Bernie Sanders... (China Daily)

World’s Biggest Pension Fund Loses $52 Billion in Stock Rout
The world’s biggest pension fund posted a $52 billion loss last quarter as stocks tumbled and the yen surged, wiping out all investment gains since it overhauled its strategy by boosting shares and cutting bonds. Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund lost 3.9 percent, or 5.2 trillion yen ($52 billion), in the three months ended June 30, reducing assets to 129.7 trillion yen, it said in Tokyo on Friday... (Bloomberg)

Global equities set 2-week low before Yellen speech, dollar dips
Global shares slipped to a two-week low and the dollar edged down on Friday as investors turned cautious before a keynote speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that could map out a clearer path for U.S. interest rates. The MSCI All-Country World index .MIWD00000PUS was down 0.1 percent by 1041 GMT, after slipping to its lowest level since Aug. 9 earlier in the session... (Reuters)

Russia and Saudi Arabia to decide the fate of oil
Crude oil futures were rising in price steadily last week. Traders are full of optimism. They are confident that world’s largest players will take measures to stabilize the oil market. First of all, it goes about agreements between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The first attempt to reach an agreement in Doha suffered a fiasco in April. Is there a hope this time... (Pravda Report)

Japan, China and South Korea turn up the heat on North Korea
Japan, China and South Korea agreed Aug. 24 to lead international efforts to urge North Korea to refrain from further provocative acts after it fired a ballistic missile from a submarine in the Sea of Japan. Foreign ministers Fumio Kishida of Japan, Wang Yi of China and Yun Byung-se of South Korea decided on this approach hours after the 5:30 a.m. missile launch... (Asahi)

Chinese navy conducts drill in Sea of Japan
China’s navy says it has carried out a “confrontation drill” in the Sea of Japan, with two fleets embarking on the exercise. State news agency Xinhua on Friday quoted a military source as saying that foreign aircraft had attempted surveillance of the drill. (

Open Letter to the European Leaders: Countering the British nationalist takeover with a European democratic blow
“We have all got it right, Brexit will ultimately not result in Great Britain leaving the EU. Nevertheless, Brexit is paralysing the European decision-making system. What we are currently seeing is a kind of EU political takeover which looks nothing like democracy, and much more like a “coup d’etat”... (LEAP)

EuroBRICS Youth Platform and LEAP in Shangai for the Youth Innovation Competition on Global Governance 2016
Marie-Hélène Caillol, President of LEAP and Editor in Chief of the GEAB and some members of our Euro-BRICS Youth Platform were in Shangai for the Youth Innovation Competition on Global Governance (YICGG). It was hosted by the University of Fudan. Our President was invited as member of the jury. YICGG2016 aims at gathering information about outstanding youths from all over the world and inject new vitality into the global governance in the framework of the United Nations’ 2030 development agenda... (LEAP)

miércoles, 17 de agosto de 2016

2016/08/17 Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

The UK's marginalization and strengthening of the Eurozone in connection with the referendum
The referenduml leads to the UK's marginalization in relation to major integration projects of the European continent. Having deliberately excluded itself from any integrated space like Schengen or Eurozone, the UK has moved away from its European partners and the entire decision-making circle. In all circumstances or interventions, the UK is treated as a special host, neither inside nor outside. The referendum at least, provides a concrete result: the UK will leave or will accept the constraints of not belonging to confirmed integration projects, like any other EU state. It will have to accept and submit to the Lisbon treaty, following the conditions Cameron negotiated with his partners in February... (Read more in the GEAB 103, March 2016)

Brexit unlikely before 2019
When Theresa May launched her campaign in Birmingham last month (11 July) to become the next leader of the UK’s Conservative party, she made the now famous promise that « Brexit means Brexit », adding that she would « make a success of it ». However, she never said when it would actually happen... (EUObserver)

Hedge Funds Are Losing Endowments After Exodus of Pensions
Following the lead of pensions, some U.S. endowments and foundations are souring on hedge funds. Hedge fund fees and lagging performance are cause for concern for nonprofit investors, who are reducing their allocation, according to a survey published Monday by NEPC, a Boston-based consulting firm with 118 endowment and foundation clients with assets of $57 billion... (Bloomberg)

German bank starts charging customers to hold their cash in negative interest rate world
When the European Central Bank introduced a negative interest rate on lenders’ deposits two years ago, few thought things would ever go this far. This week, a German cooperative savings bank in the Bavarian village of Gmund am Tegernsee — population 5,767 — said it’ll start charging retail customers to hold their cash. From September, for savings in excess of 100,000 euros (US$111,710), the community’s Raiffeisen bank will take back 0.4 per cent. That’s a direct pass through of the current level of the ECB’s negative deposit rate... (Financial Post)

Panama Papers: Iceland calls elections six months early in wake of scandal
Iceland has announced early parliamentary elections triggered by the Panama Papers scandal that forced the prime minister to resign. The trove of leaked documents revealing the vast extent of global tax evasion implicated several senior Icelandic politicians. Then-PM Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson resigned after the leak in April, becoming the first major figure to fall from grace over the scandal. Rarely seen protests erupted on the streets but his government remained in place. On Thursday his replacement, Sigurdur Ingi Johannsson: “We intend to hold the election on 29 October... (The Guardian)

G20: Global governance and Chinese wisdom
Twenty years ago, when the G7 – the G20’s predecessor – was founded, China was still kept outside the gate of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Now, China has become the presiding country of the G20, playing a leading role in global economic governance and in the reconstruction of the international order. The fact that China has made such a leap in international status is not accidental. It is the inevitable result of China’s continual integration into the international community, its participation in global governance, and its contributions to world development since it implemented the reform and opening-up policies in the early 1980s... (

A Tough Time To Manage Money
In normal times, some asset classes are expensive others are cheap, making it easy to use historical relationships to decide where to invest. That’s not the case today. Every major asset category, including stocks, bonds and even precious metals, are looking at best temporarily overbought by past standards, and at worst (in the case of stocks and bonds), wildly overvalued. Here’s a discussion with some tentative advice… (Dollarcollapse)

Zika virus: Floridians fear ‘Pandora’s box’ of genetically altered mosquitos
The Florida Keys are three months away from a straw poll vote on whether to release millions of genetically modified mosquitoes on an island just east of Key West, and the tourist destination is awash in lawn signs. Alongside the typical signs to vote for court clerk, judge, sheriff or school board are signs that showcase the overhead view of a mosquito and read: “NO CONSENT to release of genetically modified mosquitoes”... (The Guardian)

Unease continues after Sherman Park uprising
For a second night, disorder hit Milwaukee’s Sherman Park neighborhood late Sunday, with protesters throwing rocks, bricks and glass bottles at police, shots ringing out and a shooting victim rescued by officers and whisked to a hospital in an armored vehicle. The disturbances came as the city coped with the aftermath of Saturday night’s violence that followed a police shooting of an armed suspect... (JSOnline)

African migration flows: an example of the challenges of the multi-polar world
The falling rates of growth in most of the BRICS countries are a reflection of the continuing global economic and financial crisis, which is heightened by the lowering prices of fossil fuels and agricultural and mineral commodities, and reduced rates of investments, as well as geopolitical causes, like conflicts in the Middle East, and global threats, like poverty, terrorism, climate change and crime. Nevertheless, each of the BRICS countries has its own reasons for the diminishing growth... (GEAB No 104)

US election 2016: Trump overhauls campaign team again
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has overhauled his campaign team for the second time in two months, with two new leaders. Pollster Kellyanne Conway becomes campaign manager and Stephen Bannon of Breitbart News the CEO. Paul Manafort remains campaign chairman, but analysts say he has effectively been demoted. Mr Trump told AP the new leaders were "terrific people... they're champs"... (BBC)

Germany proposes new anti-terror laws
Germany is toughening up security laws, in a broader effort to crack down on terrorism, following a recent spate of deadly attacks. On Thursday (11 August), Germany’s interior minister Thomas de Maiziere unveiled a raft of anti-terror proposals... (EUObserver)

State Grid said to get control of US$7b utility in Brazil
State Grid Corp of China reached a deal to gain control of Brazil’s CPFL Energia SA, after two major shareholders agreed to sell the Chinese company their stakes in the $7.3 billion utility, people with knowledge of the matter said. Bonaire Participacoes and Banco do Brasil SA’s pension fund, known as Previ, have given informal approval to sell their combined 44.5 percent stake in CPFL for 25 reals ($7.8) a share, the people said, asking not to be named because the information isn’t public... (
Leap Press Review 

viernes, 12 de agosto de 2016

2016/08/11 Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

US presidential campaign: an indicator of the state of the country
With the approaching election, it has become impossible to hide the problems that were previously buried under the good national news or the foreign news – because election campaigns usually force nations to talk about themselves and recognize their own problems. Strangely, it is precisely at this time that monthly statistics on employment start to dive , with a worst month of May since 2010 for job creation (while March and April were revised sharply down), causing some panic just before a Fed meeting which planned to raise its key interest rate , but finding now a good excuse to wait a little longer. The financial world is also beginning to worry openly... Over 10,000 billion dollars of sovereign bonds currently have negative rates ... (GEAB No 106 / June 2016)

Trump Sees Wide-Ranging ‘Clinton Machine’ Conspiracy to Steal Election
Donald Trump smells a far-reaching conspiracy. With fewer than 100 days until Election Day, the Republican presidential nominee’s campaign has posited a simple and nefarious explanation for recent damaging stories about intra-party turmoil over Trump’s feud with Gold Star parents, his deteriorating standing in national and swing-state polls, a positive U.S. jobs report in July, and his wife’s plagiarism: The “Clinton machine” is orchestrating them all... (Bloomberg)

Fascism returns to Europe as the west looks away
The German word Vergangenheitsbewältigung is a mouthful, but the reluctance of some nations to address and condemn their fascist past has the ability to leave one tongue-tired. Vergangenheitsbewältigung is generally translated to English as ‘overcoming the past’. Whilst the word originates in the former West Germany, both post-war German states educated their population so that they could learn from the past rather than ignore it, wish it away or worse yet, embrace it... (The Duran)

Ankara and Kremlin in charm offensive
Relations between Turkey and Russia are thawing after a state visit on Tuesday (9 August) by Turkey’s president to St. Petersburg. “Turkey-Russia ties have entered into a very different and positive phase,” said Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin... (EUObserver)

Turkey may seek non-NATO options for defense industry cooperation: foreign minister
Turkey may seek other options outside NATO for defense industry cooperation, although its first option is always cooperation with its NATO allies, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday. In an interview with private broadcaster NTV, Cavusoglu also said that a political transition in Syria with President Bashar al-Assad was not possible... (Reuters)

UK will want to do business with China, regardless of Hinkley Point outcome
Though the Chinese ambassador has called the UK’s decision on Hinkley Point C nuclear plant a “crucial historical juncture” for bilateral ties, it barely registers in the long sweep of the relationship. As any schoolchild in China could tell you – but probably rather fewer adults here – the nadir came a couple of centuries ago, when Britain sent in gunboats to protect its drug sales. Those events colour Chinese perceptions of the UK to this day... (The Guardian)

West backs terrorists and plotters, says ErdoganTurkey has accused the West of supporting terrorism and backing the failed coup to overthrow the government. In a fiery speech delivered at his 1,150 room palace in Ankara on Tuesday (2 August), president Recep Tayyip Erdogan demanded the United States hand over his bitter foe Fethullah Gulen. Gulen, a 75-year old cleric who has lived in Pennsylvania since 1991, has been accused of masterminding the 15 July coup... (EUObserver)

Norway may block UK return to European Free Trade Association
Norway could block any UK attempt to rejoin the European Free Trade Association, the small club of nations that has access to the European single market without being part of the EU. Senior Norwegian government members are to hold talks with David Davis, the Brexit minister, in the next few weeks. Some Brexit supporters have suggested that Efta would be one way of retaining access to the single market while honouring the referendum mandate to leave the EU... (The Guardian)

Negotiations underway to form a government in Spain
There are signs of movement on the political gridlock in Spain. At a meeting in the Spanish congress, Albert Rivera of the liberal Ciudadanos party said that he would support a government led by Conservative Mariano Rajoy if a package of reforms is agreed upon... (Euronews)

Saudi construction bust traps thousands in desert nightmare
Riyadh: First they had no pay, and then no work. For a time, there wasn’t even food in the squalid, concrete camps where they had been abandoned to live in the searing heat of the Saudi Arabian desert. Medical supplies dried up two months ago. Owed weeks and weeks of back pay from construction companies squeezed by the kingdom’s economic slowdown, thousands of foreign labourers from South Asia... (Livemint)

EU imposes anti-dumping duties on China and Russia
The EU on Thursday (4 August) imposed anti-dumping measures against some China and Russia steel following industry complaints from the European Steel Association. “They will be in place for five years and for the first time will also be levied retroactively,” EU commission spokeswoman Mina Andreeva told reporters in Brussels... (EUObserver)

Brazil Is Still the Country of the Future
Brazil, it is often and not quite fairly said, is the country of the future and always will be. As the Olympics focuses global attention on the country, it's worth exploring the various ways in which this maxim is -- and may not be -- true. The puzzle with Brazil is neither its successes nor its failures, but rather the combination of the two... (Bloomberg)

The Nauru files: cache of 2,000 leaked reports reveal scale of abuse of children in Australian offshore detention
The devastating trauma and abuse inflicted on children held by Australia in offshore detention has been laid bare in the largest cache of leaked documents released from inside its immigration regime. More than 2,000 leaked incident reports from Australia’s detention camp for asylum seekers on the remote Pacific island of Nauru – totalling more than 8,000 pages – are published by the Guardian today. .. (The Guardian)

Insurance sector: Questioning of the economic model
Everyone remembers the images picturing floods, hail storms, mudslides, tornadoes and other disasters that have swept Europe, Germany, France, and Belgium recently, but also those of other continents (America, Australia, and Canada, where huge fires are still raging in Alberta). The estimated damage is reported to be in billions of Euros: 1.4 billion estimated in France and several billion in Germany and Canada; Great Britain and Scandinavia have also been affected by similar phenomena lately (almost 2 billion Euros, if we tabulate all of them)… (GEAB No 106)

2016/08/03 Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

Brexit: Returning to our previous anticipations
If our team was focused on the Bremain, it was due to one of our basic predications: “No one leaves the EU…” (the European reality within a globalized world, in today’s Internet era, is a strong reference). We were wrong to conclude that “the British establishment would manage to get a yes to remain in the EU”. In fact, we totally underestimated the highly strategic choice of a part of the British state machinery (formally embodied by Theresa May) to support the Brexit: precisely because “no one leaves the EU”, an “impossible-to-implement-Brexit” has now allowed the UK to block the entire European decision-making system by defining the rules of the game, to which an increasing number of Member States would readily rally... (GEAB Aug. 2016 / Subscribe and read our BREXIT special report)

Let Cyprus Embody the Principles of the European Union
The U.K. referendum result to leave the European Union has been a major shock for the U.K. But it has also shaken the EU and has reignited the debate about how best to achieve the objectives of the European project. The potential reunification of Cyprus offers an opportunity for the EU to demonstrate its ideals and the value of its policy and institutional framework... (WSJ)

UK construction shrinks at fastest pace in seven years after Brexit vote – PMI
Britain’s construction industry suffered its sharpest downturn in seven years last month, according to another business survey on Tuesday which suggests the economy is at risk of recession after June’s Brexit vote. The Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched down to 45.9 in July from 46.0 in June — the lowest reading since June 2009 and some way below the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction... (Reuters) 

Thousands turn out in Liverpool city centre for Jeremy Corbyn rally
Jeremy Corbyn has described the challenge to his leadership of the Labour party as a “massive opportunity to reach out to people all across the country”, speaking to a crowd of about 5,000 people at a campaign rally in Liverpool. Police had to close roads surrounding St George’s Plateau in the centre of the city when the event, which was organised with only two days notice, attracted large crowds. Carrying banners reading “Scousers for Corbyn” and “We chose Jez”, theLabour leader’s supporters clambered... (The Guardian)

Texas allows guns at universities on mass shooting anniversary
Texas became the eighth US state to allow guns on campuses Monday — a controversial decision that comes on the 50th anniversary of a deadly sniper rampage at a university. The law, which was passed last year, requires public universities in Texas to permit concealed weapons in campus buildings, although schools can impose limits on where guns are allowed. (Inquirer)

US launches airstrikes against Isis in Libya
US warplanes have attacked Islamic State forces in Libya, the Pentagon has announced, at the start of what US officials say will be a sustained offensive against the militant group outside Iraq and Syria. Isis positions in the strategic port city of Sirte were hit by manned aircraft and drones on Monday, after a request from the UN-backed unity government, the Pentagon said... (The Guardian)

West backs terrorists and plotters, says Erdogan
Turkey has accused the West of supporting terrorism and backing the failed coup to overthrow the government. In a fiery speech delivered at his 1,150 room palace in Ankara on Tuesday (2 August), president Recep Tayyip Erdogan demanded the United States hand over his bitter foe Fethullah Gulen. Gulen, a 75-year old cleric who has lived in Pennsylvania since 1991, has been accused of masterminding the 15 July coup. He denies any involvement... (EUObserver)

Credit Suisse, Deutsche index exclusion another blow to European banks
Two of Europe’s biggest banks – Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) – will be dropped from an index of Europe’s top 50 blue-chip companies next week in a further blow to the embattled sector. For Deutsche Bank, it will be the first time since 1998 that it will no longer be a member of the STOXX 50 .STOXX50. Shares of both were firmly in the red on Tuesday, with Credit Suisse down more than 5 percent and Deutsche off 3.5 percent... (Reuters)

Uber Sells China Operations to Didi Chuxing
Global ride-hailing giant Uber Technologies Inc. has given up its costly battle for China’s riders, swapping its local operations there for a minority stake in the country’s homegrown champion, Didi Chuxing Technology Co. Didi, which was valued at $28 billion in its latest fundraising round, said Monday that Uber and investors in its UberChina unit will take a 20% stake in the company... (WSJ)

The EU and China’s velvet power
One would not really imagine the EU inviting journalists from some 100 countries to present its development programmes and ask the media to help it promote its projects and external policy. It would probably be accused of mixing information with spin and trying to impose European views and interests on other parts of the world. China did exactly that last week. The People’s Daily, the official paper of the ruling Communist Party, organised a “Media cooperation forum on Belt and Road” in Beijing... (EUObserver)

North Korea fires 2 ballistic missiles, South Korea and U.S. say
North Korea fired two ballistic missiles Wednesday morning local time, U.S. and South Korean authorities said. U.S. Strategic Command issued a statement saying it detected what it believes was the simultaneous launch of two presumed No Dong intermediate range ballistic missiles. The missiles were fired from the western city of Hwangju in the country’s North Hwanghae province, STRATCOM said, adding one exploded after launch and the other was tracked over North Korea and into the Sea of Japan... (CNN)

THAAD serious threat to peace, stability of East Asia
Using the threat of the North Korea’s missile program as an excuse, the US and South Korea have decided to deploy THAAD missile defense system in South Korea. This is a serious threat to the peace and stability of East Asia. American decision to deploy THAAD missile defense system in South Korea should be a clear indicator to those who still hold misguided assumption about the US military strategy in East Asia and the world... (China Daily)

When superpowers court Rodrigo Duterte
“I will be chartering a [foreign policy] course [for the Philippines] on its own and will not be dependent on the United States,” exclaimed Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines’ firebrand president shortly after winning a historic election in May. After almost a century of strategic dependence on the US, the Philippines was now interested in charting its own destiny. Duterte presented himself as a fully fledged maverick, willing to shake up the Southeast Asian country’s state of affairs, even if it came at the expense of estranging traditional allies... (AlJazeera)

Open Letter to the European Leaders: Countering the British nationalist takeover with a European democratic blow
Dear European leaders, We have all got it right, Brexit will ultimately not result in Great Britain leaving the EU. Nevertheless, Brexit is paralysing the European decision-making system. What we are currently seeing is a kind of EU political takeover which looks nothing like democracy, and much more like a “coup d’etat”. In light of the cataclysmic crisis which has struck the world and the EU in the past 10 years, it is a fact that the weak governance supplied by the current European technocratic system is no longer sufficient... (