miércoles, 17 de agosto de 2016

2016/08/17 Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

The UK's marginalization and strengthening of the Eurozone in connection with the referendum
The referenduml leads to the UK's marginalization in relation to major integration projects of the European continent. Having deliberately excluded itself from any integrated space like Schengen or Eurozone, the UK has moved away from its European partners and the entire decision-making circle. In all circumstances or interventions, the UK is treated as a special host, neither inside nor outside. The referendum at least, provides a concrete result: the UK will leave or will accept the constraints of not belonging to confirmed integration projects, like any other EU state. It will have to accept and submit to the Lisbon treaty, following the conditions Cameron negotiated with his partners in February... (Read more in the GEAB 103, March 2016)

Brexit unlikely before 2019
When Theresa May launched her campaign in Birmingham last month (11 July) to become the next leader of the UK’s Conservative party, she made the now famous promise that « Brexit means Brexit », adding that she would « make a success of it ». However, she never said when it would actually happen... (EUObserver)

Hedge Funds Are Losing Endowments After Exodus of Pensions
Following the lead of pensions, some U.S. endowments and foundations are souring on hedge funds. Hedge fund fees and lagging performance are cause for concern for nonprofit investors, who are reducing their allocation, according to a survey published Monday by NEPC, a Boston-based consulting firm with 118 endowment and foundation clients with assets of $57 billion... (Bloomberg)

German bank starts charging customers to hold their cash in negative interest rate world
When the European Central Bank introduced a negative interest rate on lenders’ deposits two years ago, few thought things would ever go this far. This week, a German cooperative savings bank in the Bavarian village of Gmund am Tegernsee — population 5,767 — said it’ll start charging retail customers to hold their cash. From September, for savings in excess of 100,000 euros (US$111,710), the community’s Raiffeisen bank will take back 0.4 per cent. That’s a direct pass through of the current level of the ECB’s negative deposit rate... (Financial Post)

Panama Papers: Iceland calls elections six months early in wake of scandal
Iceland has announced early parliamentary elections triggered by the Panama Papers scandal that forced the prime minister to resign. The trove of leaked documents revealing the vast extent of global tax evasion implicated several senior Icelandic politicians. Then-PM Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson resigned after the leak in April, becoming the first major figure to fall from grace over the scandal. Rarely seen protests erupted on the streets but his government remained in place. On Thursday his replacement, Sigurdur Ingi Johannsson: “We intend to hold the election on 29 October... (The Guardian)

G20: Global governance and Chinese wisdom
Twenty years ago, when the G7 – the G20’s predecessor – was founded, China was still kept outside the gate of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Now, China has become the presiding country of the G20, playing a leading role in global economic governance and in the reconstruction of the international order. The fact that China has made such a leap in international status is not accidental. It is the inevitable result of China’s continual integration into the international community, its participation in global governance, and its contributions to world development since it implemented the reform and opening-up policies in the early 1980s... (China.org)

A Tough Time To Manage Money
In normal times, some asset classes are expensive others are cheap, making it easy to use historical relationships to decide where to invest. That’s not the case today. Every major asset category, including stocks, bonds and even precious metals, are looking at best temporarily overbought by past standards, and at worst (in the case of stocks and bonds), wildly overvalued. Here’s a discussion with some tentative advice… (Dollarcollapse)

Zika virus: Floridians fear ‘Pandora’s box’ of genetically altered mosquitos
The Florida Keys are three months away from a straw poll vote on whether to release millions of genetically modified mosquitoes on an island just east of Key West, and the tourist destination is awash in lawn signs. Alongside the typical signs to vote for court clerk, judge, sheriff or school board are signs that showcase the overhead view of a mosquito and read: “NO CONSENT to release of genetically modified mosquitoes”... (The Guardian)

Unease continues after Sherman Park uprising
For a second night, disorder hit Milwaukee’s Sherman Park neighborhood late Sunday, with protesters throwing rocks, bricks and glass bottles at police, shots ringing out and a shooting victim rescued by officers and whisked to a hospital in an armored vehicle. The disturbances came as the city coped with the aftermath of Saturday night’s violence that followed a police shooting of an armed suspect... (JSOnline)

African migration flows: an example of the challenges of the multi-polar world
The falling rates of growth in most of the BRICS countries are a reflection of the continuing global economic and financial crisis, which is heightened by the lowering prices of fossil fuels and agricultural and mineral commodities, and reduced rates of investments, as well as geopolitical causes, like conflicts in the Middle East, and global threats, like poverty, terrorism, climate change and crime. Nevertheless, each of the BRICS countries has its own reasons for the diminishing growth... (GEAB No 104)

US election 2016: Trump overhauls campaign team again
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has overhauled his campaign team for the second time in two months, with two new leaders. Pollster Kellyanne Conway becomes campaign manager and Stephen Bannon of Breitbart News the CEO. Paul Manafort remains campaign chairman, but analysts say he has effectively been demoted. Mr Trump told AP the new leaders were "terrific people... they're champs"... (BBC)

Germany proposes new anti-terror laws
Germany is toughening up security laws, in a broader effort to crack down on terrorism, following a recent spate of deadly attacks. On Thursday (11 August), Germany’s interior minister Thomas de Maiziere unveiled a raft of anti-terror proposals... (EUObserver)

State Grid said to get control of US$7b utility in Brazil
State Grid Corp of China reached a deal to gain control of Brazil’s CPFL Energia SA, after two major shareholders agreed to sell the Chinese company their stakes in the $7.3 billion utility, people with knowledge of the matter said. Bonaire Participacoes and Banco do Brasil SA’s pension fund, known as Previ, have given informal approval to sell their combined 44.5 percent stake in CPFL for 25 reals ($7.8) a share, the people said, asking not to be named because the information isn’t public... (China.org)
Leap Press Review 

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