jueves, 29 de septiembre de 2016

Asamblea Local de la Agrupación de Xàbia mañana, viernes día 30 a las 19 horas en la Casa del Poble.

Estimados, estimadas:

Os convocamos a la Asamblea Local de la Agrupación de Xàbia mañana,  viernes día 30 a las 19 horas en la Casa del Poble.

Esperamos vuestra asistencia.

Saludos socialistas

Pepa Gisbert
- Secretaria de Organización-

miércoles, 28 de septiembre de 2016

2016/09/23 Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

In October 2014, the GEAB predicted a military coup in Turkey aiming to remove Erdogan
The Middle East has become a real can of worms where a host of very influential players (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Syria, Egypt, Israel, Iran and now ISIS) but with highly diverging interests are trying to come out on top and profit from the strategic vacuum left by the US’ withdrawal of influence in the region. Say what you will about its Machiavellian sponsors, ISIS can only prosper because it is the fruit of the Arab Spring’s failure[...] the ISIS crisis would also create severe domestic tension in Turkey and remove Erdogan as part and parcel of a military coup... (Read the GEAB No 88 / Oct. 2014)

Israeli and Palestinian leaders clash at UN general assembly
Israeli and Palestinian leaders have traded pointed barbs at the UN general assembly, in a rhetorical exchange that underlines the deep differences between the two sides – and the dim prospects for meaningful dialogue... (The Guardian)

State of the Union: Juncker addresses EU’s key challenges
In his 2016 State of the Union address to the European Parliament, EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said the Union was facing key challenges of populism, unemployment and social injustice. “The next twelve months are decisive if we want to reunite our Union,” said the EU executive’s head. “Europe is a cord of many strands – it only works when we are all pulling in the same direction... (EUBusiness)

The final banking crash is currently underway
The inevitable Western banking crisis, due to the shock of collapse of the oil price in dollars, is shaking the financial world. It started in China, but, as we extensively explained in our previous edition, what was shaking in China was not at all specifically Chinese: it was the Chinese part of the famous Western-centred financial system... and actually it's already escalating to Europe. That said, the psychological shock (risk of government and social panic) is the most dangerous component in the banking crisis... (GEAB No 102 / Febr. 2016)

Erdogan to Turkey’s Central Bank: Nice Rate Cut, Do More Please
Turkey’s central bank did the right thing by cutting interest rates this week and it should continue to do so, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said. “I believe it will be beneficial to continue this steadily,’’ Erdogan said in an interview Thursday in New York, hours after policy makers cut their overnight lending rate for a seventh straight month... (Bloomberg)

Expect a December, not September, hike for rates: Fed survey respondents
Prepare for a holiday hike. That’s the message from the latest CNBC Fed Survey, where 90 percent of the 41 respondents say the Federal Reserve won’t increase interest rates at its September meeting this week. But 88 percent say the hike is coming in December... (CNBC)

BOJ Shifts Policy Framework to Targeting Japan’s Yield Curve
The Bank of Japan shifted the focus of its monetary stimulus Wednesday from expanding the money supply to controlling interest rates, which some economists deemed as further evidence that BOJ policy had reached the limits of its effectiveness. The central bank said it would adjust the volume of its asset purchases, the core of its framework until now, as necessary in the short term to control bond yields, while keeping it at about 80 trillion yen ($780 billion) annually ... (Bloomberg)

"Trump possibility / Hillary probability" at Work Behind the Weakening of the Transatlantic Relationship
Two factors converge and contribute to the acceleration of Europe's "release" from America: what we call a "Trump possibility". Prior to Trump's possible election to the head of the US in November, the EU (and the rest of the world) needs to realise that the No 1 world power is now capable of electing such a leader. Added to this "Trump possibility", there is the worry (which is somewhat less visible) shared by Europe , and even the US and the rest of the world of the "Hillary probability”. The outlook on the upcoming US presidential election cements the rupture of the ties which held together the two sides of the Atlantic... (GEAB No 107 / Sept. 2016)

Gun inequality: US study charts rise of hardcore super owners
Americans own an estimated 265m guns, more than one gun for every American adult, according to the most definitive portrait of US gun ownership in two decades. But the new survey estimates that 133m of these guns are concentrated in the hands of just 3% of American adults – a group of super-owners who have amassed an average of 17 guns each... (The Guardian)

Exclusive: Google may face over $400 million Indonesia tax bill for 2015 – government official
Indonesia plans to pursue Alphabet Inc’s (GOOGL.O) Google for five years of back taxes, and the search giant could face a bill of more than $400 million for 2015 alone if it is found to have avoided payments, a senior tax official said. Muhammad Haniv, head of the tax office’s special cases branch, told Reuters its investigators went to Google’s local office in Indonesia on Monday... (EUObserver)

Visible Deterioration of the Transatlantic Relationship / The Apple Affair
We are all questioning the tax exemption for major US multinationals in Europe, recently symbolised by the case against Apple (the 13 billion euros of back taxes demanded by the European Commission from Apple form part of an internal strategy to give back to the continent its revenue-raising capacity). But everyone must have figured out by now that the US government was also the target with Apple providing the means. This is part of a reciprocal measure for the astronomical fines imposed by the US to several European banks. More broadly, all this is part of a deep questioning of the benefits tacitly acquired by the US through the "unconditional one-way road" of the transatlantic relationship... (GEAB No 107 / Sept. 2016)

Arctic nations square up as clamour for resources grows
Kristian Jensen, Denmark’s foreign minister, gave a precise response last week to a request by Russia for the nations to enter bilateral talks over the ownership of the north pole. He flatly rejected the move. “We need to apply the international rules,” he told reporters. The Russian request and the swift Danish response are intriguing. The United Nations is currently assessing Russian, Danish and Canadian claims to own sizeable chunks of the Arctic seabed. The Russian move was generally viewed as an attempt to strike a deal that would cut out Canada, while Denmark appears to believe its case is strong enough to exclude such manoeuvres... (The Guardian)

The EU is investigating tax deals between Luxembourg and Engie
In the wake of its momentous decision to order Apple to repay €13 billion in back taxes to the Irish exchequer, the EU is after another giant for allegedly receiving tax aids from one of the member states. Last Monday the European Commission has opened an in-depth investigation into Luxembourg’s tax rulings concerning an alleged unfair advantage that the country might have given to the GDF Suez group... (Neweurope)

IMF eyes more China yuan transparency with reserve currency move
China will need to keep improving the transparency of its exchange rate regime once its yuan achieves reserve status as part of the International Monetary Fund's currency basket on Oct. 1, IMF officials said on Wednesday. The designation will make the yuan a "freely usable currency" in the eyes of the IMF, available for loans to IMF members and for repayments... (Reuters)

Demand for Russian Eurobond tops $6bn
Interest in Russian sovereign bonds has exceeded $6 billion from both domestic and foreign investors, according to RIA Novosti sources. On Thursday, the Russian Finance Ministry opened a book to top up its sovereign Eurobond issue seeking to raise an extra $1.25 billion with yield guidance of 3.99 percent. The placement is arranged by state-owned bank VTB Capital... (RT.com)

Elecciones en EEUU, detonante de la fase final de la crisis económica y financiera estadounidense

Las elecciones en EE.UU. revelan el estado del país

A pesar de la pobre calidad del debate estadounidense, la campaña presidencial permite un cierto “momento de verdad”, una libertad la expresión, ligado a la segregación de la sociedad (incluido el propio establishment) en dos bandos. Pero en el caso de la actual campaña ultrapolarizada, la fisura habitual entre Demócratas y Republicanos se ha convertido en un verdadero abismo, del que salen imágenes inesperadas del estado del país.

Es por ello que repentinamente, abundan los artículos alarmistas sobre la economía estadounidense. Aparte de la competencia política que acabamos de ver, está también el hecho de que la comunicación al respecto se tambalea. Un ejemplo son los anuncios de la Fed: a Yellen cada vez le cuesta orientar a los mercados con sus declaraciones, tranquilizadoras pero no demasiado, y sus aumentos de los tipos, próximos pero lejanos y que no  llegan nunca (volveremos sobre este punto más adelante).

Con las elecciones aproximándose, resulta imposible ocultar los problemas que antes se escondían tras las buenas noticias y las noticias del extranjero, pues las elecciones obligan al país a hablar de sí mismo y a mirar hacia sus propios problemas. Curiosamente, las estadísticas mensuales de empleo han comenzado a caer precisamente ahora , con mayo como el peor mes para la creación de empleo desde 2010 (mientras marzo y abril han registrado una fuerte bajada), provocando un cierto pánico, justo antes de una reunión de la Fed en la que tenían previsto aumentar el tipo de referencia , algo para lo que ya tienen excusa.

El mundo de las finanzas comienza a mostrar su inquietud abiertamente…Más de 10 billones de dólares de obligaciones soberanas presentan ahora tipos negativos, muy próximos al PIB de la zona euro. Pero la motivación de un inversor que compra una obligación a tipos negativos no es perder dinero, sino esperar a que los tipos bajen lo suficiente como para poder generar una plusvalía, al revender la obligación a un precio mayor (ya que se hará más interesante en un contexto en el que los tipos sean más bajos). Esta espiral, o quizás el miedo a que la obligación se estanque cuando los precios remonten, angustia sobremanera a Bill Gross, entre otros, quien advierte del peligro de la explosión, ni más ni menos, que de una “supernova”.

Por su parte, George Soros apuesta por la caída inminente de los mercados, vendiendo sus acciones para comprar oro. Goldman Sachs también prevé una fuerte caída de los mercados en los próximos doce meses, es decir, en torno a las elecciones estadounidenses. De acuerdo con el banco, los mercados están a punto de entrar en modo “desesperación” , en una configuración que recuerda mucho a la de 2007.

Por otra parte, se multiplican los artículos, publicados en medios de comunicación convencionales, que alertan sobre el parecido de los excesos actuales con los de 2007: los mercados de obligaciones nunca han estado tan valorados, reportando tan poco; los mercados financieros están levitando, más incluso que en los años 2000 y 2007; el temido impacto del brexit hace que la cotización de la libra esterlina sea tan volátil como en 2008; volvemos a escuchar hablar de los créditos subprime en EE.UU., esta vez en el sector del automóvil, que está pasando por un momento difícil, o de los créditos de mala calidad, que representan el 20% del total y están viendo cómo su tipo por defecto aumenta peligrosamente.

Llueven las alertas sobre el estado de la economía, quizás con la esperanza de prevenir la repetición de la tragedia de 2008 (que apenas nadie anticipó), logrando que los agentes económicos mundiales contribuyan a evitar un cataclismo que afectaría a todo el mundo, al igual que lo hizo en aquel momento. Pero esta vez, EE.UU. tiene delante a agentes mucho más independientes, decididamente menos preocupados por su destino y mucho más centrados en sus propios problemas: China, con tranquilidad y firmeza, sienta las bases de un mundo nuevo (hablaremos de esto más adelante); Rusia sigue su camino, sin preocuparse ya de complacer a Occidente para mantenerse a flote; los productores de petróleo estadounidenses parecen haberse rendido frente a la guerra de precios librada por la OPEP , mientras las quiebras se multiplican, etc.

En resumen, parece que no queda mucho para que se produzca un drástico debacle de la economía estadounidense, en un remake hollywoodiense de 2008. Hay que aclarar que, aparte de los financieros, los prospectos para la economía real también pintan muy negro en EE.UU.: el endeudamiento (público y privado) cada vez es más preocupante (las familias están igual de endeudadas que en 2008); la tasa de empleo, después de tres alentadores meses, vuelve a bajar (menos del 63% de participación en el mercado laboral, en comparación con el 67% en el año 2000); los cupones de alimentos están en su máximo histórico, con 45 millones de personas afectadas; el sector petrolífero ya no puede soportar más los bajos precios del petróleo, mientras este tampoco puede contribuir a mejorar la economía del país; continúa el descenso general en la escala social, etc.

Evidentemente, podríamos continuar plasmando el retrato de una sociedad en la que el paro, la pobreza, las quiebras y los problemas sociales son cada vez más significativos. Todo ello no tiene nada de nuevo. Lo que sí constituye una novedad, es que todos estos elementos surgen repentinamente en los medios de comunicación, a causa de todos los intereses contrarios que luchan por las elecciones de noviembre. Es este momento de gran exposición, en el que la mecha corre el riesgo de prenderse, provocando la brusca caída de la economía que ya anticipamos en enero.

En cierto modo, la ocultación de las malas noticias y la revelación pública de que no se ha solucionado ningún problema en los últimos diez años, debe estar forjando en numerosos agentes un profundo sentimiento de desánimo y, por otra parte, la tentación de pasar la patata caliente a Trump, debe estar aumentando entre las filas de la política convencional... (extracto, GEAB No 106)

jueves, 22 de septiembre de 2016

2016/09/22 - Anticipación Política, Revista de Prensa - LEAP (GEAB Especial)

Elecciones en EE.UU. - Brexit - TTIP - sanciones rusas. ¿Qué será de la Comisión Europea dentro de la gran redefinición de la relación transatlántica?

Desde su creación, el objetivo principal del GEAB es advertir a la opinión pública y a los dirigentes europeos de que la enorme reconfiguración geopolítica global impone necesariamente a la UE una profunda transformación. En plena crisis sistémica global, la transformación del papel y la posición de EE.UU. en el mundo, aliados estructurales del proyecto comunitario desde su origen y especialmente desde la caída del Muro de Berlín, acentúa la necesidad de adaptación, no solamente de las relaciones exteriores, sino también de la propia naturaleza de la UE y de su órgano administrativo más emblemático, la Comisión Europea... (Leer anuncio públic / GEAB 107 http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8FAAJVTwlbVx4DBgQBBw )

Una moneda global para 2016-2020, los indicios de una gobernanza global: los DEG abren las puertas a la globalización

Desde 2008, el mundo anda buscando un sustituto del dólar, para así romper con su dependencia. La supeditación era tan fuerte, que han sido necesarios más de diez años para esbozar una solución. Curiosamente, tal solución proviene de una institución que podría haber resultado obsoleta, hasta que China se ha tomado la molestia de desempolvarla: tras postergar durante mucho tiempo el debate sobre el futuro del sistema monetario internacional, es finalmente un viejo instrumento, muy similar a una moneda global y que surge de una institución de Washington, el que paliará el estancamiento del mundo del dólar, que nuestro equipo viene analizando desde hace mucho. Se trata, en efecto, de los derechos especiales de giro (DEG) del FMI, que ahora poseen el potencial para reconstruir el sistema monetario internacional e incluso podrían tener implicaciones mucho mayores en la reconfiguración del mundo multipolar...
(Leer más, GEAB 107 / Telescopio

Uniones económicas regionales 2016-2017: entre estancamiento aparente y reactivación subyacente

Aparentemente, las integraciones regionales no van nada bien. El Mercosur se halla completamente paralizado como consecuencia de la marginalización de Venezuela, que ostenta la presidencia actual del Mercado Común y a la que nadie respalda ya. Otra asociación mucho menos conocida, el Movimiento de Países No Alineados, se encuentra igualmente inmovilizada a causa de Venezuela, que la preside actualmente: cumbre aplazada, agenda paralizada .
Por supuesto, la Unión Europea, considerada en plena descomposición, especialmente como consecuencia del brexit, es centro de todas las miradas mediáticas. Y en el seno de la UE, la Eurozona, símbolo del renacimiento y la construcción europea, de acuerdo con el equipo del LEAP, no ha visto a sus jefes de Estado reunirse en una Cumbre del Euro desde junio de 2015 …cuando supuestamente debían celebrarse dos al año...
(Leer más, GEAB107 / Focus http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8CDQUdAgFTGlEHBwUB)

Calendario electoral de la UE en 2016-2017: gran saturación a nivel nacional

Como recordarán, el pasado junio inauguramos una nueva sección, “Calendario de anticipación política”, que publicaremos cada tres meses, de modo que el mes próximo hablaremos sobre el tema detenidamente.
Este mes, sin embargo, nos gustaría centrarnos en el apretado calendario electoral de la UE para 2016-2017 y deducir una serie de conclusiones. En vista del calendario, podemos afirmar que prácticamente la totalidad de los países Estados-miembros del centro de la Unión Europea, y sus dirigentes actuales, se van a encontrar en campaña electoral. Esto promete frenar significativamente la discusión sobre cuestiones verdaderamente importantes, todas de carácter supranacional...
(Leer más, GEAB 107 / Focus http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8CDQUdAgFTGlEHBwUB)

Inversiones, tendencias y recomendaciones

Las aventuras y desventuras del oro. El pasado junio, cuando la cotización del oro remontaba claramente desde hacía varias semanas, nos arriesgamos a predecir que el momento del oro había pasado. Cuando los británicos votaron a favor del brexit, todo apuntaba a que nuestra anticipación iba a resultar errónea . En realidad, el precio del oro había aumentado en previsión del brexit y cuando se celebró el referéndum (23 de junio), la subida ya había tenido lugar. La cotización del oro continuó aumentando hasta principios de julio y desde entonces, sube y baja en torno a los 1.300 dólares la onza , a pesar de la gran cantidad de malas noticias publicadas durante este verano. Nuestros lectores más fieles saben que el GEAB empezó a recomendar invertir en oro desde que comenzara con su labor de anticipación de la crisis sistémica global a partir de su lanzamiento en 2006 (cuando el oro se situaba en torno a los 600 dólares la onza). ..
(Leer más, GEAB 107 / Focus http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8CDQUdAgFTGlEHBwUB)

Libra, dólar: ¿la devaluación como solución?

El brexit ha provocado una caída de la libra esterlina aparentemente saludable. Permite reactivar la exportación y con ella también la actividad, el empleo… Incluso se ha diseñado una estrategia de reindustrialización del país. El Banco de Inglaterra, que había puesto en marcha este verano una serie de medidas poco convencionales (intensificación de la QE, bajada de los tipos de referencia) para amortizar el impacto del brexit, anticipando que iba a tener que reconducir este tipo de políticas para otoño, está ya mucho más tranquilo en vista de las buenas cifras de empleo, del índice de la confianza de los consumidores y del índice de Gestores de Compra...
(Leer más, GEAB 107 / Focus  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8CDQUdAgFTGlEHBwUB)

Los archivos GEAB a su disposición gratuitamente

Todos los archivos GEAB estarán a su disposición gratuitamente en el idioma de su elección mientras su suscripción esté en activo. Quedamos a su entera disposición para cualquier información suplementaria. Contactar con el servicio al cliente :
geab@leap2020.net. (Abonese al GEAB http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8BAwAdAgFTGlEHBwUB )

jueves, 15 de septiembre de 2016

2016/09/08 Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

The GEAB 107 is coming up soon ! Don't miss our fresh analyses
A few more days are separating us from the next GEAB bulletin! The LEAP's editors are now preparing for their exclusive readers a spectacular edition on the world's current geopolitical challenges and financial trends. Make sure your access codes are active, a message announcing the new edition and a summary will be reaching you soon... (Registration page)

Balkanization and returning empires in Central and Eastern Europe: the drama of the failure of European integration and of the Euro-Russian crisis
In 2014, LEAP anticipated the disintegration of the Eastern European flank following the conflict between the EU and Russia. Two years later, the damage has become visible. If Europe and Russia fail to renew any dialogue, the worst is yet to come in this part of Europe, a region where old demons are in full resurrection (Cold War, European wars, balkanization and empires…) and where the failures of the EU enlargement policy are coming to light... (GEAB No 106 / back to the edition of June)

Deflation and real economy in the United States: the black hole
The systemic crisis is spreading much faster in the real economy than in 2008-2009. This low dormancy is a sign that the economic protection dikes are severely lowered, the synergies are broken and the common strategies of global resilience have vanished. Within this statistical fog, not even fully lifted yet, our team needs once more to assess the health of the real economy, particularly in the United States. The irretrievable loss of confidence in the US dollar which we have constantly documented month after month for ten years now, and the currency war, soon in full swing with a risk of cascading devaluations, finally show the aberration to measure the economy with this one standard, the dollar... (GEAB No 102 / a teaser)

Theresa May warns that there are ‘difficult times ahead’ as Britain leaves the EU
There will be “difficult times” ahead as Britain moves to leave the European Union, the Prime Minister has said. In her first major broadcast interview since taking office Theresa May warned that the Brexit process would not be be “plain sailing” – but that she is nevertheless optimistic about the future. The intervention comes as Ms May makes her first trip to a major international summit as PM. On Saturday she flew to Beijing to meet G20 leaders, who she will try to reassure regarding Britain’s departure from the trading bloc... (The Independent)

Russia, Britain agree to mend ties
Russian President Vladimir Putin and British Prime Minister Theresa May met here Sunday and expressed hopes to repair bilateral relations through dialogue. During the meeting, their first ever, Putin congratulated May on becoming the British prime minister, and said he hopes the two countries can take bilateral relations to a higher level. “We certainly have much to do — both in the political and economic spheres,” he added... (China Daily)

US and Russia fail to reach Syria ceasefire deal
The United States and Russia came up short on Sunday in attempts to finalise a ceasefire deal in Syria, as US President Barack Obama said “grave differences” remained and fighting on the ground continued. Russia and the US have been striving for weeks to secure a ceasefire between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government and moderate rebels that would expand humanitarian access to hundreds of thousands of civilians caught in the crossfire... (AlJazeera)

The Euroland Agora is happening! (Athens, October 7-10)
In the middle of the post-Brexit overhaul of the EU, @LEAP in partnership wih @AEGEE put something highly innovating on the table : initiating a process of democratisation of the trans-European decision-making system on the basis of the Eurozone, where member-States share the highest degree of integration and common interests, launching a platform of representation of Euroland citizen's interests, a Euroland Agora. Innovation is a requirement against the ongoing dramatic aggravation of Europe's political life. It's in Athens and it's next month. Make a smart move now: apply or contact us @ contact@eurolandagora.eu for more! (LEAP)

Brexiteers still hunting for a strategy
Brexit minister David Davis made his triumphant return to Parliament on Monday (5 September), almost 20 years after his previous government job as, ironically enough, John Major’s minister for Europe. Back then, Davis was the bruiser who had helped force the Maastricht treaty through the UK parliament. Now he’s the man charged with leaving the club... (EUObserver)

EU Budget Woes or How Much Brexit Will End Up Costing Europe
There is no avoiding the elephant in the room when it comes to the post-Brexit debate around how the EU will fund its existence over the coming years. As proposals are discussed this week by the EU parliamentary budget committees to come up with recommendations for MEPs, will there be room for negotiation for EU member states?... (Sputniknews)

Why cash isn't king any more
The world is awash in paper currency, with major central banks pumping out hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth each year, mainly in very large denomination notes such as the $100 bill. The $100 bill accounts for almost 80% of the US’s stunning $4,200 (£3,152) per capita cash supply... (The Guardian)

ECB keeps interest rates unchanged for another month
The European Central Bank has kept its main interest rate on hold at zero for another month. The eurozone central bank's 25-member governing council left its benchmark borrowing rate at zero. The rate on deposits from commercial banks was also unchanged at minus 0.4%. The ECB decided against extending the duration of its two-year bond-buying stimulus scheme under which it has been making purchases of €80bn a month... (BBC)

Russia, Saudi Arabia to set up working group to monitor oil market
On Monday, Russia and Saudi Arabia’s energy ministers both signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the sidelines of the G20 summit, noting keenness from both sides to see the global oil market stabilize. “Both Russia and Saudi Arabia, as the two largest oil producers in the world, have the heaviest burdens to see the oil markets stabilize,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said... (Alarabyia)

South China Sea row tops ASEAN summit agenda
Tepid criticism in draft statement of meetings in Vientiane seen as reflection of China's economic and military clout. Asian leaders have played down tensions over the South China Sea in a carefully worded summit statement In Vientiane, Laos. However, even before it was issued China voiced frustration on Thursday with countries outside the region "interfering" in tussles over the strategic waterway... (AlJazeera)

Obama and Duterte 'exchange pleasantries' after 'son of a whore' insult
Barack Obama has met his Philippine counterpart Rodrigo Duterte briefly and exchanged pleasantries, officials said, after a meeting between the two leaders was cancelled due to the latter’s crude comments. The two leaders were supposed to meet one-on-one on Tuesday on the sidelines of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (Asean) summit in Vientiane, Laos... (The Guardian)

2016/08/31 Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

Angry nations, G20 - National democracies are preventing the implementation of solutions to the global crisis
The anger of the people that we are witnessing is that of panicked populations, like rats in a cage onto which fire and flames would fall. These rats could act and organize their survival if they were outside the cage, but the more they panic, the more are tightened the bars of their cage and put muscled jailers at the door (because there is one door). The nations are angry, and this is a logical consequence of a multi-directional crisis of global dimensions to which the levels of national "democratic" power are structurally unable to respond ... (Read more in the GEAB no 106)

Be ready for the upcoming September GEAB bulletin: The Political Soap Opera starts again...
Far from having brought the lull for which some hoped, the summer sun has continued to heat finance, the economy, and especially global geopolitics white-hot. The Syrian and UK apples of discord have shown the extent to which the international community was no longer one; the economic news, despite all the tricks possible, stubbornly refuses to announce a long awaited recovery; currency wars have flared up again, interest rates are now out of control... Read about this and much more in our bulletins. (Register for the monthly confidential GEAB )

Germany's EU Commissioner 'wouldn't bet' on Brexit happening
Germany's EU Commissioner has expressed doubts over whether the UK will actually leave the European Union, saying he would not "place any major bets on Brexit". Günther Oettinger told German newspaper Bild, that the longer the British government waits to invoke Article 50 – the legal process of leaving the union – "the more insecure the situation will become"... (The Independent) 

Leaders look to safeguard future of Europe
Europe's Italian, French and German leaders meeting to chart the future of the EU following Britain's Brexit referendum promised Monday to secure Europe's future and uphold European values. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi was hosting the summit with Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande on the island of Ventotene... (EUBusiness) 

Low rates taking a toll on euro zone banks: ECB's Nouy
Low interest rates, once a boon for euro zone banks, are becoming a drag on profitability, European Central Bank supervisor Daniele Nouy told Lithuanian newspaper Verslo žinios on Wednesday. Low rates initially helped banks by reducing funding costs and improving clients' credit profile but they are now curtailing profitability, Nouy told the newspaper in an interview... (Reuters)

The $8 Trillion Fight Over How to Rid America of Fossil Fuel
For every economist, there exists an equal and opposite economist, and they’re both wrong. Like many jokes, this one is funny (to economists, anyway) because it’s true. What isn’t so funny is its application to the biggest challenge of the 21st century: How to shed a fossil-fuel energy infrastructure that seems hell-bent on destroying us. There are several camps trying to decide how much we must spend to avoid environmental disaster. Consensus on a grand total is a matter of degree, with estimates varying by as much as $8 trillion... (Bloomberg)

U.S.-EU free trade talks have failed – Germany’s economy minister
Germany’s Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel said on Sunday that talks on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a free trade deal being negotiated by the United States and the European Union, had essentially failed. « The negotiations with the USA have de facto failed because we Europeans did not want to subject ourselves to American demands,»… (Reuters)

EU’s €13bn tax decision angers Ireland, US, and Apple
Ireland, Apple and the US have rounded against the European Commission after it ordered on Tuesday (30 August) the US tech firm to hand a record €13 billion of unpaid taxes to Ireland. The EU executive ruled that « Ireland granted illegal tax benefits to Apple, which enabled it to pay substantially less tax than other businesses over many years »... (EUObserver) 

Calls to end Ukraine crisis from Europe
The foreign ministers of Germany, France and Poland say there should be greater international efforts to end the fighting in eastern Ukraine, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has told reporters. He said on Sunday there had not been sufficient progress in implementing the Minsk ceasefire agreement... (Skynews) 

West’s Most Serious Mistakes in Its Relationship With Russia
The West has committed serious mistakes in its relationship with Russia, including its reaction to the reunification with Crimea, all stemming from when George W. Bush advocated Ukraine’s accession to NATO. That would have meant that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet would have been stationed in a NATO area, according to a prominent German politician... (Sputnik news) 

Russia and Turkey restart talks on EU gas pipeline
Top executives from Russian energy firm Gazprom will in Turkey on Wednesday (31 August) resume work on a potentially divisive gas pipeline project to the EU. Alexander Medvedev, Gazprom’s deputy CEO, told Russia’s Tass news agency that he and the firm’s CEO, Alexei Miller, will take part in the delegation on the Turkish Stream pipeline... (EUObserver)

Barack Obama’s Asia legacy in peril
« After a decade in which we fought two wars that cost us dearly, in blood and treasure, [we are] turning our attention to the vast potential of the Asia-Pacific region, » United States President Barack Obama exclaimed in a 2011 speech before the Australian parliament... (AlJAzeera)

India accords residency status to foreign investors
India approved a plan on Wednesday to allow foreign investors to settle, emulating a policy in countries such as the United States and Singapore to woo investment from abroad. The proposal, aimed at giving a fillip to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Make in India" program, was first announced in February's federal budget... (Reuters)

Chinese dissidents urge Obama to press Xi Jinping on human rights at G20
Chinese dissidents have urged Barack Obama to confront Xi Jinping over what they called China’s worst human rights crisis since the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown when he travels to the G20 economic summit in Hangzhou this week. During a meeting at the White House on Tuesday afternoon, prominent Chinese activists told Susan Rice, Obama’s national security adviser, that China’s president had presided over a dramatic offensive... (The Guardian)

Pacific grim: Australia torn between US and China
In a recent Australian-made TV political thriller called Secret City, a cyber-attack paralyses the country's air traffic control system. Authorities immediately (and incorrectly) point the finger at Chinese hackers. It's a storyline that's telling about Australia's attitude to Asia's pre-eminent power. On the one hand, China is the country's biggest trading partner, but it also poses a potential regional military threat that's drawing the attention of the US, Australia's closest defence ally... (BBC)