lunes, 21 de noviembre de 2016

2016/11/21 - Political Anticipation - A LEAP Press review (GEAB special)

The GEAB 109 is available !
US Elections / Europe / World – Trump’s victory and the domino effect: Will the Euro survive beyond 2017?

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election creates the conditions for change, but it is not change yet, contrary to what the media and populists believe. Far from being a “revolution”, the Trump’s advent at the head of the Western system corresponds to a radicalisation of the ex-ante situation. In reality, Trump is the symptom of a Western system which has failed to adapt[1] and is now trying to rule through pure violent rhetoric, by targeting citizens and nations who propose politico-economic counter-models. The method will therefore change, but the objectives and the main principles will not. Among all the uncertainties that remain, we must now understand the subsequent challenges that threaten the rest of the world; especially the Euro zone... (Read the public announcement of the GEAB 109)

Turns Out, Everything Is Negotiable
All presidents break campaign promises, some more than others. President George H.W. Bush broke his "read my lips, no new taxes" vow, which contributed to his reelection loss in 1992. President Barack Obama kept most of his campaign pledges, with the exception of not closing the Guantanamo Bay prison, despite repeatedly saying he would... (Bloomberg)

4 reasons why a strong dollar may sink the stock-market rally in 2017
The greenback has surged in recent days, with the benchmark U.S Dollar Index back above 100 to its highest levels since 2003. It’s not secret as to why the dollar DXY, -0.35% is rallying. It’s nearly certain that the Fed will raise interest rates again at its December meeting while the rest of the world is still aggressively easing monetary policy, and President-elect Donald Trump has been very vocal about protectionist policies that include tariffs and other measures meant to rebalance U.S. trade relationships... (MarketWatch)

British PM May to unveil industrial strategy to spur 'ambitious' ideas
Prime Minister Theresa May will unveil her new industrial strategy on Monday, pledging to spend billions of pounds on science, technology and research to spur a new "ambitious" way of doing business in Britain. May, who faces some of Britain's toughest negotiations since World War Two to secure an advantageous divorce from the European Union, is keen to persuade business to back her push to create "the conditions where winners can emerge and grow"... (Reuters)

EU parliament to claw back eurosceptics' funds
The European Parliament (EP) is preparing to seek repayment of allegedly misspent funds from a eurosceptic political group that includes Ukip, in a move that could cause the group's bankruptcy. The Guardian, a British newspaper, reported on Thursday (17 November) that EP chiefs are to ask the Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe (ADDE) to pay back €173,000 and to block a further €501,000 in EU grants on grounds that it wrongly used EU money in national campaigns in the UK... (EUObserver)

What a Fourth Merkel Term Would Mean for Markets and More
With political turbulence all around, Angela Merkel’s announcement on Sunday that she’ll seek another term in next year’s federal elections provides investors with the prospect of four more years of a German chancellor whose style of leadership they’ve come to understand. During nearly 11 years in office, Merkel has held the euro area together, refrained from criticizing European Central Bank policies, stood up for economic sanctions against Russia and a strong NATO military alliance while being vocal in her support for free trade... (Bloomberg)

Populist dominos in Europe
What Trump's victory changes is that the populists now have on America's side a model of an attractive strong white and Christian man. The conditions of the convergence between the two camps are therefore gathered: populism, transatlantism, identitarism, Europeanism ... are no longer incompatible. The technocrats who energise the system will, at the very least, "let things happen"...
(Subscribe to the GEAB and read our entire US Report)

Europe's anti-austerity swerve faces uphill climb
Europe's anti-austerity swerve faces an uphill climb. The European Commission wants euro zone countries to boost spending by 0.5 percent of GDP next year. It's a belated attempt to head off Trump-style anti-establishment revolts on the continent. To make a difference, however, wealthy countries would have to help struggling ones. The commission's proposal is an acknowledgment that euro zone fiscal restraints don't work for the region as a whole. Rules that require individual countries to limit deficits mean overall policy is too tight... (Reuters)

France centre-right primary: Ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy knocked out
French ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy has been knocked out of a primary to choose the presidential candidate of the centre-right Republican party. Admitting defeat, Mr Sarkozy endorsed Francois Fillon, a moderate who finished first in Sunday's first round, according to near-complete results. Alain Juppe, who like Mr Fillon is an ex-prime minister, finished second. They will face each other in a run-off next Sunday. The winner will compete in next year's presidential election... (BBC News)

Who made the Arab Spring into an Arab crisis?
The violence sweeping across the Arab world isn't a consequence of the Arab Spring, but of decades of dictatorship. A recent news item on the BBC's English website neatly captured the sharp contrast in how, five years later, various Arab rulers, citizens and non-Arab observers view the popular uprisings that swept leaders from power in several Arab states and challenged others... (Al Jazeera)

Greece can be gateway to Europe for Chinese enterprises
Greece can act as the gateway for Chinese enterprises to enter European markets as Belt and Road Initiative opens great opportunities for bilateral cooperation, Fotios Provatas, chairman of Greek-Chinese Economic Council, said. "Bonds between Greece and China have become stronger with the launch of the initiative," he said... (China Daily)

Russians Can No Longer Connect on LinkedIn
Russia‘s communications regulator ordered public access to LinkedIn’s website to be blocked on Thursday to comply with a court ruling that found the social networking firm guilty of violating a data storage law. LinkedIn, which has its headquarters in the United States, is the first major social network to be blocked by Russian authorities, setting a precedent for the way foreign Internet firms operate. It has over 6 million registered users in Russia... (Time)

Volkswagen axes 30,000 jobs as it bids to recover from emissions cheating scandal
Car maker is grappling with huge car industry changes and a $15bn fine over Dieselgate. Volkswagen will cut up to 30,000 jobs globally as it attempts to recover from the biggest scandal in its history. After months of intense talks, unions and VW’s management team agreed a package that aims to save €3.7bn (£3.2bn) per year. The job cuts come after the company accepted a $15bn fine for cheating emissions tests in June... (The Independent)

Chinese President Xi's APEC speech puts China, Asia-Pacific in global "vanguard"
Chinese President Xi Jinping's keynote speech at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit on Saturday in Lima, Peru, placed China and the region at the forefront of a joint effort to reactivate the global economy, APEC participants and scholars have said. Mario Mongilardi, president of the Lima Chamber of Commerce, believed Xi sent an encouraging message to the business communities of the 21 APEC members... (Xinhuanet)

martes, 8 de noviembre de 2016

2016/11/08 - Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

US presidential campaign: an indicator of the state of the country
The financial world is beginning to worry openly... Over 10,000 billion dollars of sovereign bonds currently have negative rates (nearly the Euro zone’s GDP, to give an idea of the scale). Yet, the motivation of an investor who buys a negative rate bond is not to lose money: he hopes that rates will drop again, and he will make a profit by selling it (since it would become more interesting in a low rate environment). This spiral, or rather the fear of a jam when rates rise, creates great anxiety for Bill Gross, for example, who is warning of the explosion danger of nothing less than a "supernova" . George Soros, on the other hand, is betting on the imminent ... (Read the report / GEAB 106) 

Total signs first post-sanctions Western energy deal with Iran
France's Total has signed a deal with Iran to further develop its part of the world's largest gas field, becoming the first western energy company to sign a major deal with Tehran since the lifting of international sanctions earlier this year. Total confirmed on Tuesday it had signed a heads of agreement with National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) for the Phase 11 development of South Pars in the Gulf, which extends into Qatari waters where it is known as the North field... (Reuters)

UN: Russia’s Role in Syria Raises Questions About Bid for Human Rights Council
The United Nations General Assembly will select new members for the Human Rights Council in elections to be held in New York on October 28. Russia is running against Hungary and Croatia for a chance to represent the Eastern European group at the world’s foremost human rights body. The undersigned organizations urge all member states, when deciding which Eastern European candidate to support, to question seriously whether Russia’s role in Syria – which includes supporting and undertaking military actions which have routinely targeted civilians and civilian objects... (Human Rights Watch)

Brexit Trumps Trump
Donald Trump has promised voters his very own kind of Brexit upset. For investors, the real thing is still more troubling. Key gauges of investor uncertainty and market volatility are lower now than they were in the run up to Britain's vote to leave the European Union in June. Take Europe's economy. The Baker, Bloom and Davis composite index of economic policy uncertainty, which draws on everything from newspaper coverage to economic forecasts shows Europe is still in greater turmoil than the U.S... (Bloomberg)

Lift-off for China’s €10 billion fund for Eastern Europe
China has set up a €10 billion (HK$86 billion) investment fund to finance projects in Central and Eastern Europe, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China said in a statement issued on Sunday. The China-Central Eastern Europe fund will be run by Sino-CEE Financial Holdings a company established by the bank earlier this year. The company was formally launched by Premier Li Keqiang during a visit to Riga... (SCMP)

EU agrees zero tax rate is not enough to define tax haven: Padoan
European Union finance ministers agreed that countries applying a zero tax rate cannot automatically be considered tax havens, Italy's finance minister said on Tuesday, a move that may reduce the scope of a EU blacklist of offending jurisdictions. "We have find an agreement on the fact that if a jurisdiction applies zero tax rates, this can be considered as an indicator of possible unfair practices, but it would not be enough to define a jurisdiction as non-cooperative," Pier Carlo Padoan told a news conference... (Reuters)

European expansionism: turned down flat
The European integration, which has turned into an expansionary process after the fall of the Berlin Wall – Europe being unable to manage its neighbourhood other than by trying to integrate it, presently provides a good example of the internationalist model and the limits that it reached. The Ukraine, Turkey, Russia… had futures only within the EU, futures of ecstatic communion around the European values according to the European institutions, an economic upgrade vector according to the candidates. Ideologies, hidden agendas, lies and manipulations, have all rushed into the crazy European conquest of the 1990s and 2000s... (Excerpt from the GEAB No 105 / May 2016)

Tesla to Buy Germany's Grohmann Engineering Amid Model 3 Ramp-Up
What if it were possible to create a government bond for the euro area that was seen as a safe asset, without that meaning Germany has to stand behind the debts of others? Consider it done, almost. The European Safe Bond is, in theory, a parcel of euro-area government debt of different risk grades that would provide the 19-nation currency bloc with a single “safe asset” that's not linked to the fate of any individual member. Previously, the perception of all European government debt as safe, when it clearly wasn't, was one of the things that caused the sovereign debt crisis... (Bloomberg)

Estonian government could collapse, faces no confidence vote
Estonia’s coalition government could be threatened with collapse this week after two junior coalition partners called on the prime minister to resign yesterday (7 November) and the opposition called for a vote of no confidence. The prime minister of the smallest Baltic state, with a population of just 1.3 million, Taavi Rõivas has little room to manoeuvre to save his fractious coalition government... (Euractiv)

Mikheil Saakashvili quits as governor of Ukraine's Odessa region
Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president of Georgia, has resigned as governor of Ukraine’s Odessa region, citing corrupt officials and a lack of political will for reform in the country’s leadership. Saakashvili staged his resignation on Monday by calling an outdoor press conference and pouring vitriol on the man who appointed him, President Petro Poroshenko... (The Guardian)

Juncker's Barrosogate response is too little, too late
European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker will ask his team to consider tightening the rules on former members’ conduct during a college meeting next week (16 November). But the move already seems unlikely to calm a four-month long row over the handling of his predecessor, Jose Manuel Barroso, who landed a top job with US investment bank Goldman Sachs last July. Juncker wants the college to double the spell during which commission ex-bosses have to seek permission for post-office employment to three years... (EUobserver)

Park Geun-hye: Scandal is all my fault and mistake
In an extraordinary display of abject apology during a moment of supreme crisis, South Korean President Park Geun-hye took sole blame on Friday for a “heartbreaking” scandal as suspicion grew that she allowed a mysterious confidante to manipulate power from the shadows. Park also vowed to accept a direct investigation into her actions, but the opposition, sensing weakness, immediately said that if she doesn’t accept a prime minster chosen by the parliament and withdraw from dealing with domestic affairs, it will push for her to go... (AlJazeera)

EU says committed to 'broad, ambitious' FTA with India
The European Union remains committed to a "broad and ambitious" free trade agreement (FTA) with India, but hopes that the "stalemate" on the issue would be resolved soon, a senior EU trade official said today. Addressing the Trade and Investment Partnership Summit (TIPS) 2016 organised by the Europe-India Chamber of Commerce (EICC) in Brussels, Jolana Mungengova - member of the Cabinet of EU Trade Commissioner - expressed hope that the "stalemate" would be overcome soon... (Economic Times)

Regional economic unions (2016-2017): Between Apparent Failure and Underlying Recovery
It seems that everything is going wrong for regional integrations. South America's MERCOSUR trading bloc has completely stopped functioning, due to the marginalisation of Venezuela which currently holds the presidency of the Common Market, but that no one is following anymore. Another alliance currently chaired by Venezuela, the much less known NAM (Non-Aligned Movement), is also not functioning for the same reason: summit cancelled, frozen agenda. Then of course the European Union, considered in complete disintegration following Brexit, has all the media focus. Within the EU, the Eurozone – which, in our view is a champion for the revival of the European construction process - has not seen its heads of states meet in a Euro Summit since June 2015... (Read the report in the GEAB 107)

sábado, 5 de noviembre de 2016

2016/11/04 - Anticipación Política, Revista de Prensa - LEAP

El calendario del futuro del GEAB
La anticipación política no funciona como una bola de cristal. Los “datos del futuro” constituyen la materia prima del análisis: elecciones, cumbres, reuniones diversas y otros elementos que permiten esclarecer el futuro de hechos reales. El equipo del GEAB decidió que, a partir de junio de 2016, compartiría con sus lectores estos datos “en bruto” de la anticipación. El calendario del futuro determinó las fechas importantes de los tres meses siguientes, señaladas por el equipo de redacción, y las relacionó con observaciones sobre las perspectivas de transformación abiertas por cada una de ellas. Todo ello dio forma a un esquema de los tres meses siguientes, particularmente útil para cualquier dirigente... (GEAB No 108 / Suscripción

Con Clinton o Trump en el retrovisor, el Parlamento británico debería decir 'no' al Brexit
Nuevo disgusto para los partidarios de la salida del Reino Unido de la UE: no podrán agarrarse como un clavo ardiendo a la mínima diferencia entre marcharse y permanecer registrada en el referéndum de junio para saltarse a la torera al Parlamento a la hora de comunicar la decisión de romper con Europa por la vía del Artículo 50 del Tratado de Lisboa. (Huffington Post

Durão, la ley lava las conductas impropias

Resumen sucinto de los hechos: un llamado comité de ética de la Comisión Europea ha dictaminado que Jose Manuel Durão Barroso, expresidente de la Comisión, respetó las normas del código de conducta de los excomisarios cuando aceptó el empleo del banco de inversión Goldman Sachs; que dejó pasar escrupulosamente el plazo de cuarentena (18 meses) antes de aceptar la oferta (lo hizo a los 20 meses); y que, como el propio Durão ha explicado, no le han contratado para hacer lobby... (El País

Air France-KLM abandona los 'números rojos' y gana 430 millones hasta septiembre
Air France-KLM registró unas ganancias de 430 millones de euros en los nueve primeros meses del año, frente a los 158 millones de pérdidas de los nueve primeros meses de 2015, según informó el grupo franco-holandés, que revisó sus cuentas consolidadas para reflejar la venta del 49,99% de Servair, su negocio de catering, a la china HNA anunciada en junio. El grupo franco-holandés, que incluye Air France, KLM, HOP... (El Economista

El caso del Deutsche Bank, un espantapájaros muy útil
Cuando está pasando por un momento difícil, EE.UU. siempre utiliza el mismo método para camuflar sus problemas, sacar a la luz los problemas de los demás, siendo a menudo Europa la afectada. Cuando el mundo descubre con la boca abierta la multa récord de 14.000 millones de dólares impuesta al Deutsche Bank por EE.UU., observa con horror los abusos cometidos por este banco , pero también debe observar los intereses a los que sirve esta sanción. Muchos lo han visto como una pequeña venganza tras la multa de Apple en Europa , una explicación que no se puede descartar, pero hay cosas más importantes... (GEAB No 108 / Suscripción

La agencia Fitch estudia bajar el rating de Deutsche Bank
La agencia Fitch ha colocado en vigilancia negativa el rating emisor a largo plazo 'A-' de Deutsche Bank, así como las calificaciones a corto plazo, viabilidad y deuda de la entidad germana, ante los retos para la generación de ingresos y capital que plantea la debilidad del entorno de negocio. "Los ratings han sido puestos en vigilancia negativa porque Fitch cree que los retos planteados por la debilidad del entorno de negocio,
particularmente en Europa y también en Asia Pacífico, dificultará a Deutsche Bank generar ingresos y, de este modo, capital durante 2017 en línea con su estrategia 2020", explicó la agencia... (El Economista )

El Acuerdo del Clima de París entra en vigor en todo el mundo este viernes
El calificado como "histórico" Acuerdo de París contra el Cambio Climático, que se adoptó el pasado mes de diciembre en la capital francesa, entrará en vigor a nivel mundial este viernes, apenas una semana antes de que comience la Conferencia de las Partes de la Convención de Cambio Climático (COP22) que se celebrará en Marrakech, aunque España aún no ha ratificado sus compromisos ante la Organización de Naciones Unidas, a pesar de que sí lo firmó el 22 de abril en Nueva York...  (Heraldo

Cinco temas que seguir en la era post-Obama
9 de noviembre de 2016. El mundo respira aliviado. Las encuestas, por esta vez, no han fallado estrepitosamente: Hillary Clinton ha resultado vencedora en las elecciones presidenciales norteamericanas. Atrás queda la campaña más sucia de la que se tiene recuerdo. El 20 de enero comenzará una nueva etapa en la política estadounidense, llena, como todas, de numerosos desafíos y oportunidades... (Huffington Post

Elecciones en Estados Unidos: quién será el próximo presidente
En una elección con más de 100 millones de votos emitidos, eso fue todo lo que necesitó George W. Bush para convertirse en presidente de Estados Unidos en el año 2000. Por eso, pese a que las elecciones presidenciales de EE.UU. a menudo se describen como un ejercicio para atraer al mayor número de votantes posible, los candidatos nunca pueden ignorar a eterminados sectores del electorado... (BBC

La insoportable levedad de la fiscalidad de Europa
Tanto en su dimensión económica como en su dimensión política, la crisis sistémica de Occidente en general y de Europa en particular, tiene us raíces en una grave crisis de la fiscalidad: los estados ya no son capaces de recaudar impuestos de manera eficiente y justa. Ésta es una realidad que existe desde hace tiempo, que ha empeorado con la explosión de la crisis estadounidense y que se convertirá en un gran tema de debate durante... (GEAB No 88 / Suscripción )
¿China o Estados Unidos?¿Cuál es la mayor economía del mundo?
La clasificación mundial cambia según cómo se mida la riqueza. España ocupa el puesto 14 entre los países con mayor PIB, según el FMI. El tamaño varía según el prisma con que se mida. La economía estadounidense es más grande que la de China si se compara en producto interior bruto en dólares corrientes (sin el efecto de la inflación).
Pero si la comparación se hace por poder de paridad de compra, China supera a EE UU... (El País

De qué se trata el demorado acuerdo firmado entre Canadá y la Unión

La Unión Europea y Canadá firmaron un acuerdo comercial, después de semanas de incertidumbre debido a la oposición en Bélgica. El acuerdo fue firmado en Bruselas el domingo por el primer ministro canadiense, Justin Trudeau, y altos funcionarios de la UE. El acto de la firma inicialmente estaba previsto para el jueves pero fue cancelada luego de que la región de Valonia, en Bélgica vetó el acuerdo... (BBC )
Comienza el plazo para la tregua humanitaria en Alepo

El plazo para una tregua humanitaria de diez horas comenzó hoy a las 09.00 hora local (07.00 GMT) en la ciudad siria de Alepo (norte) sin que por el momento ninguna parte haya confirmado su inicio. Está previsto que esta ausa humanitaria de diez horas, anunciada unilateralmente esta semana por Rusia y el Ejército sirio, se extienda hasta las 19.00 horas (17.00 GMT)... (Deutsche Welle )

Maduro: La oposición no volverá a gobernar "ni con votos ni con balas"
"La revolución es irreversible... Ni con votos ni con balas, ni por las buenas ni por las malas, entrará más nunca la burguesía a Miraflores". Nicolás Maduro ha vuelto a disparar su artillería más pesada contra el diálogo y contra las peticiones del Vaticano en pro de la tranquilidad del país... (El Mundo )

Podemos critica la "desigualdad" en las negociaciones del acuerdo UE-Mercosur

El eurodiputado de Podemos Xabier Benito criticó hoy que las negociaciones del tratado de libre comercio entre la Unión Europea (UE) y el Mercosur están en una "fase inicial" y que se están dando en un plano de "desigualdad" y a favor de los intereses de la UE.Así se expresó el también vicepresidente de la delegación del Parlamento Europeo (PE) para las relaciones con el Mercosur en declaraciones a Efe antes de reunirse con el círculo de Podemos en Buenos Aires... (El Mundo )

Andy McDonald MP, portavoz nacional de transporte para el Partido Laborista del Reino Unido; martes 8 de noviembre a las 14.30 en Xàbia.

Estimados Compañeros

El partido laborista internacional Costa Blanca convoca una reunión el próximo martes 8 de noviembre a las 14.30 en Ancora Bar, Avinguda de París, Platja de l'Arenal. (Jávea/Xàbia)
Queremos presentar Andy McDonald MP, portavoz nacional de transporte para el Partido Laborista del Reino Unido.
El hablará del "brexit" y otros asuntos importantes para el Reino Unido.
Queremos invitar a todos militantes del PSOE de Xabia a la reunión.
Un saludo

Moira John
presidenta de "Labour International Costa Blanca"

martes, 1 de noviembre de 2016

2016/10/31 - Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

The GEAB team’s Future Events Calendar
Political anticipation does not work using crystal balls. Future data represents the raw material for its analyses: elections, summits, and various meetings are elements which allow us to cast light on a future of facts. The future events’ calendar sets up important dates identified by the editorial team for the coming three months, and provides remarks on the perspectives offered by each of them. The whole piece offers a real map of the coming three months, something which is particularly useful to every decision maker... (Subscribe to the GEAB and check the calendar)

European Union looks to approve first ever military budget
The European parliament will vote on Wednesday for the first time on whether to spend large scale public cash on military research. Members of the European Parliament – the parliamentary institute of the EU - are voting on a so-called "Preparatory Action for Defense Research" which would allow 3 years of groundwork cash to be spent before a full defense budget is approved... (CNBC)

Germany wants EU fund to enforce fiscal rules
Germany has said that “neutral” bodies, such as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), should take over from the European Commission on implementing fiscal rules. Speaking at the Tatra Summit, a conference in Bratislava, on Friday (28 October), German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that the commission was becoming too “political” to do the job right... (EUObserver)

The unbearable lightness of European taxation
As much in its economic as political dimension, the systemic crisis is rooted in a huge crisis of taxation: states are no longer able to collect taxes efficiently and fairly. It is a case of reality at work for a long time, which has become critical with the explosion of the US crisis and which will become a major theme of debate from 2015: which solutions to bring to the question of the funding of public authorities in Europe? (Read the entire report in the GEAB 88)

If the EU cannot do trade, what can it do?
In happier days for the European Union the arcana of international trade policy were a matter for harmless eccentrics, while the intricacies of Belgium’s constitutional arrangements were reserved strictly for masochists. Not in today’s Europe, where crises strike in the most unexpected places. Behold the fiasco of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada... (The Economist)

What the EU and Canada's Long-Awaited Trade Deal Means for Brexit
The deal signed Sunday was seven years in the making. The completion of a trade deal with Canada will have no impact on negotiations between the European Union and Britain, which in June voted to leave the bloc, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said on Sunday... (Fortune)

Rising Powers and International Security: the BRICS and the Syrian Conflict, by Adriana Erthal Abdenur
Some rising powers, including the BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China,and South Africa), have openly contested certain international security norms, for instance challenging the tendency to invoke humanitarian protection to carry out military intervention. However, the relevance of rising powers, and especially coalitions of such states, to specific conflicts remains poorly understood. How pertinent is the BRICS as a collective actor in international security, and what are their stances on major armed conflicts? (LEAP)

U.S. Elections: questioning the status quo
The following edited extract was transcribed from The Gateway House Podcast episode ‘U.S. Elections: assessing its wider impact‘ which is a part of the special mini-series on the U.S. elections and its foreign policy implications. Virpratap Vikram Singh: What sort of impact is this election likely to leave on American society and on the world? ... (Thegatewayhouse)

Thousands of Nato soldiers go to Baltic states, Romania
Most Nato allies have committed troops to a Russia-deterrent force in the Baltic region. Six of them have also pledged troops to a similar force in Romania. Nato head Jens Stoltenberg announced the decisions after a Nato defence ministers’ meeting in Brussels on Wednesday (26 October). Canada is to lead one of four Nato battalions to be stationed in the Baltic states and in Poland from early next year... (EUObserver)

EU MASTERPLAN: Jean-Claude Juncker unveils 10-point plot to save struggling Union
The EU Commission chief called for a “Europe that delivers” as he vowed to focus on youth unemployment, tax-dodging and green initiatives in the next calendar year. His new proposals come as the EU enters a make-or-break year, with bitter divisions growing between member states over a variety of escalating crises from migration to how to deal with Britain. (The Express)

How the world views the US elections, from Israel to North Korea
Russia has played an unexpectedly prominent role in this year’s US election, although the extent of the Kremlin’s involvement in hacking Democratic servers and the WikiLeaks disclosures will probably never be known. What is clear is that Moscow has enjoyed making trouble. Vladimir Putin has a personal dislike of Hillary Clinton going back to her time as secretary of state, while Trump fits perfectly into the mould of “chaos candidates” that Russia has supported... (The Guardian)

Britain wants tariff-free trade for motor industry after Brexit
Britain told Nissan it would aim for tariff-free trade with Europe for the motor industry after Brexit, persuading the Japanese company to invest in the country’s biggest car plant, a cabinet minister said on Sunday. Last month Nissan’s CEO Carlos Ghosn said he would need a guarantee of compensation to offset any tariffs imposed when Britain leaves the European Union, before deciding whether to build new models at the Sunderland factory in northeast England... (Economic Times)

Moldova to hold runoff election for president
Moldova’s presidential election will go to a runoff after a pro-Russia candidate narrowly missed winning a majority of votes. With almost all ballots counted early on Monday, Igor Dodon won 48.26% while pro-Europe rival Maia Sandu scored 38.42%, the top finishers among the nine candidates... (The Guardian)

GE to merge oil and gas business with Baker Hughes
General Electric Co (GE.N), banking on a recovery in oil prices, said on Monday it would merge its oil and gas business with No. 3 oilfield services provider Baker Hughes Inc (BHI.N). GE will own 62.5 percent of the new company, which will have combined revenue of $32 billion, while Baker Hughes shareholders will own 37.5 percent. Shareholders of Baker Hughes, which had a market value of about $26 billion as of Friday, will get a special one-time cash dividend of $17.50 per share after the deal closes... (Reuters)

Why I support SA’s withdrawal from the ICC
As a scholar of international relations, I support South Africa’s withdrawal from the ICC, writes Oscar van Heerden. At the current juncture, our thinking and argument about anything in South Africa takes the form of a binary code. It’s good vs. evil; Hillary vs Trump; #FeesMustFall vs police brutality. Under threat, concerned, angered and frustrated we pick our sides and hold our positions. Our opinions spew forth in a hurricane of tweets, posts and short video clips. Its black or white with no room for grey or nuance... (IOL)