martes, 1 de noviembre de 2016

2016/10/31 - Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

The GEAB team’s Future Events Calendar
Political anticipation does not work using crystal balls. Future data represents the raw material for its analyses: elections, summits, and various meetings are elements which allow us to cast light on a future of facts. The future events’ calendar sets up important dates identified by the editorial team for the coming three months, and provides remarks on the perspectives offered by each of them. The whole piece offers a real map of the coming three months, something which is particularly useful to every decision maker... (Subscribe to the GEAB and check the calendar)

European Union looks to approve first ever military budget
The European parliament will vote on Wednesday for the first time on whether to spend large scale public cash on military research. Members of the European Parliament – the parliamentary institute of the EU - are voting on a so-called "Preparatory Action for Defense Research" which would allow 3 years of groundwork cash to be spent before a full defense budget is approved... (CNBC)

Germany wants EU fund to enforce fiscal rules
Germany has said that “neutral” bodies, such as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), should take over from the European Commission on implementing fiscal rules. Speaking at the Tatra Summit, a conference in Bratislava, on Friday (28 October), German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that the commission was becoming too “political” to do the job right... (EUObserver)

The unbearable lightness of European taxation
As much in its economic as political dimension, the systemic crisis is rooted in a huge crisis of taxation: states are no longer able to collect taxes efficiently and fairly. It is a case of reality at work for a long time, which has become critical with the explosion of the US crisis and which will become a major theme of debate from 2015: which solutions to bring to the question of the funding of public authorities in Europe? (Read the entire report in the GEAB 88)

If the EU cannot do trade, what can it do?
In happier days for the European Union the arcana of international trade policy were a matter for harmless eccentrics, while the intricacies of Belgium’s constitutional arrangements were reserved strictly for masochists. Not in today’s Europe, where crises strike in the most unexpected places. Behold the fiasco of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada... (The Economist)

What the EU and Canada's Long-Awaited Trade Deal Means for Brexit
The deal signed Sunday was seven years in the making. The completion of a trade deal with Canada will have no impact on negotiations between the European Union and Britain, which in June voted to leave the bloc, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said on Sunday... (Fortune)

Rising Powers and International Security: the BRICS and the Syrian Conflict, by Adriana Erthal Abdenur
Some rising powers, including the BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China,and South Africa), have openly contested certain international security norms, for instance challenging the tendency to invoke humanitarian protection to carry out military intervention. However, the relevance of rising powers, and especially coalitions of such states, to specific conflicts remains poorly understood. How pertinent is the BRICS as a collective actor in international security, and what are their stances on major armed conflicts? (LEAP)

U.S. Elections: questioning the status quo
The following edited extract was transcribed from The Gateway House Podcast episode ‘U.S. Elections: assessing its wider impact‘ which is a part of the special mini-series on the U.S. elections and its foreign policy implications. Virpratap Vikram Singh: What sort of impact is this election likely to leave on American society and on the world? ... (Thegatewayhouse)

Thousands of Nato soldiers go to Baltic states, Romania
Most Nato allies have committed troops to a Russia-deterrent force in the Baltic region. Six of them have also pledged troops to a similar force in Romania. Nato head Jens Stoltenberg announced the decisions after a Nato defence ministers’ meeting in Brussels on Wednesday (26 October). Canada is to lead one of four Nato battalions to be stationed in the Baltic states and in Poland from early next year... (EUObserver)

EU MASTERPLAN: Jean-Claude Juncker unveils 10-point plot to save struggling Union
The EU Commission chief called for a “Europe that delivers” as he vowed to focus on youth unemployment, tax-dodging and green initiatives in the next calendar year. His new proposals come as the EU enters a make-or-break year, with bitter divisions growing between member states over a variety of escalating crises from migration to how to deal with Britain. (The Express)

How the world views the US elections, from Israel to North Korea
Russia has played an unexpectedly prominent role in this year’s US election, although the extent of the Kremlin’s involvement in hacking Democratic servers and the WikiLeaks disclosures will probably never be known. What is clear is that Moscow has enjoyed making trouble. Vladimir Putin has a personal dislike of Hillary Clinton going back to her time as secretary of state, while Trump fits perfectly into the mould of “chaos candidates” that Russia has supported... (The Guardian)

Britain wants tariff-free trade for motor industry after Brexit
Britain told Nissan it would aim for tariff-free trade with Europe for the motor industry after Brexit, persuading the Japanese company to invest in the country’s biggest car plant, a cabinet minister said on Sunday. Last month Nissan’s CEO Carlos Ghosn said he would need a guarantee of compensation to offset any tariffs imposed when Britain leaves the European Union, before deciding whether to build new models at the Sunderland factory in northeast England... (Economic Times)

Moldova to hold runoff election for president
Moldova’s presidential election will go to a runoff after a pro-Russia candidate narrowly missed winning a majority of votes. With almost all ballots counted early on Monday, Igor Dodon won 48.26% while pro-Europe rival Maia Sandu scored 38.42%, the top finishers among the nine candidates... (The Guardian)

GE to merge oil and gas business with Baker Hughes
General Electric Co (GE.N), banking on a recovery in oil prices, said on Monday it would merge its oil and gas business with No. 3 oilfield services provider Baker Hughes Inc (BHI.N). GE will own 62.5 percent of the new company, which will have combined revenue of $32 billion, while Baker Hughes shareholders will own 37.5 percent. Shareholders of Baker Hughes, which had a market value of about $26 billion as of Friday, will get a special one-time cash dividend of $17.50 per share after the deal closes... (Reuters)

Why I support SA’s withdrawal from the ICC
As a scholar of international relations, I support South Africa’s withdrawal from the ICC, writes Oscar van Heerden. At the current juncture, our thinking and argument about anything in South Africa takes the form of a binary code. It’s good vs. evil; Hillary vs Trump; #FeesMustFall vs police brutality. Under threat, concerned, angered and frustrated we pick our sides and hold our positions. Our opinions spew forth in a hurricane of tweets, posts and short video clips. Its black or white with no room for grey or nuance... (IOL)

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