lunes, 21 de noviembre de 2016

2016/11/21 - Political Anticipation - A LEAP Press review (GEAB special)

The GEAB 109 is available !
US Elections / Europe / World – Trump’s victory and the domino effect: Will the Euro survive beyond 2017?

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election creates the conditions for change, but it is not change yet, contrary to what the media and populists believe. Far from being a “revolution”, the Trump’s advent at the head of the Western system corresponds to a radicalisation of the ex-ante situation. In reality, Trump is the symptom of a Western system which has failed to adapt[1] and is now trying to rule through pure violent rhetoric, by targeting citizens and nations who propose politico-economic counter-models. The method will therefore change, but the objectives and the main principles will not. Among all the uncertainties that remain, we must now understand the subsequent challenges that threaten the rest of the world; especially the Euro zone... (Read the public announcement of the GEAB 109)

Turns Out, Everything Is Negotiable
All presidents break campaign promises, some more than others. President George H.W. Bush broke his "read my lips, no new taxes" vow, which contributed to his reelection loss in 1992. President Barack Obama kept most of his campaign pledges, with the exception of not closing the Guantanamo Bay prison, despite repeatedly saying he would... (Bloomberg)

4 reasons why a strong dollar may sink the stock-market rally in 2017
The greenback has surged in recent days, with the benchmark U.S Dollar Index back above 100 to its highest levels since 2003. It’s not secret as to why the dollar DXY, -0.35% is rallying. It’s nearly certain that the Fed will raise interest rates again at its December meeting while the rest of the world is still aggressively easing monetary policy, and President-elect Donald Trump has been very vocal about protectionist policies that include tariffs and other measures meant to rebalance U.S. trade relationships... (MarketWatch)

British PM May to unveil industrial strategy to spur 'ambitious' ideas
Prime Minister Theresa May will unveil her new industrial strategy on Monday, pledging to spend billions of pounds on science, technology and research to spur a new "ambitious" way of doing business in Britain. May, who faces some of Britain's toughest negotiations since World War Two to secure an advantageous divorce from the European Union, is keen to persuade business to back her push to create "the conditions where winners can emerge and grow"... (Reuters)

EU parliament to claw back eurosceptics' funds
The European Parliament (EP) is preparing to seek repayment of allegedly misspent funds from a eurosceptic political group that includes Ukip, in a move that could cause the group's bankruptcy. The Guardian, a British newspaper, reported on Thursday (17 November) that EP chiefs are to ask the Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe (ADDE) to pay back €173,000 and to block a further €501,000 in EU grants on grounds that it wrongly used EU money in national campaigns in the UK... (EUObserver)

What a Fourth Merkel Term Would Mean for Markets and More
With political turbulence all around, Angela Merkel’s announcement on Sunday that she’ll seek another term in next year’s federal elections provides investors with the prospect of four more years of a German chancellor whose style of leadership they’ve come to understand. During nearly 11 years in office, Merkel has held the euro area together, refrained from criticizing European Central Bank policies, stood up for economic sanctions against Russia and a strong NATO military alliance while being vocal in her support for free trade... (Bloomberg)

Populist dominos in Europe
What Trump's victory changes is that the populists now have on America's side a model of an attractive strong white and Christian man. The conditions of the convergence between the two camps are therefore gathered: populism, transatlantism, identitarism, Europeanism ... are no longer incompatible. The technocrats who energise the system will, at the very least, "let things happen"...
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Europe's anti-austerity swerve faces uphill climb
Europe's anti-austerity swerve faces an uphill climb. The European Commission wants euro zone countries to boost spending by 0.5 percent of GDP next year. It's a belated attempt to head off Trump-style anti-establishment revolts on the continent. To make a difference, however, wealthy countries would have to help struggling ones. The commission's proposal is an acknowledgment that euro zone fiscal restraints don't work for the region as a whole. Rules that require individual countries to limit deficits mean overall policy is too tight... (Reuters)

France centre-right primary: Ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy knocked out
French ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy has been knocked out of a primary to choose the presidential candidate of the centre-right Republican party. Admitting defeat, Mr Sarkozy endorsed Francois Fillon, a moderate who finished first in Sunday's first round, according to near-complete results. Alain Juppe, who like Mr Fillon is an ex-prime minister, finished second. They will face each other in a run-off next Sunday. The winner will compete in next year's presidential election... (BBC News)

Who made the Arab Spring into an Arab crisis?
The violence sweeping across the Arab world isn't a consequence of the Arab Spring, but of decades of dictatorship. A recent news item on the BBC's English website neatly captured the sharp contrast in how, five years later, various Arab rulers, citizens and non-Arab observers view the popular uprisings that swept leaders from power in several Arab states and challenged others... (Al Jazeera)

Greece can be gateway to Europe for Chinese enterprises
Greece can act as the gateway for Chinese enterprises to enter European markets as Belt and Road Initiative opens great opportunities for bilateral cooperation, Fotios Provatas, chairman of Greek-Chinese Economic Council, said. "Bonds between Greece and China have become stronger with the launch of the initiative," he said... (China Daily)

Russians Can No Longer Connect on LinkedIn
Russia‘s communications regulator ordered public access to LinkedIn’s website to be blocked on Thursday to comply with a court ruling that found the social networking firm guilty of violating a data storage law. LinkedIn, which has its headquarters in the United States, is the first major social network to be blocked by Russian authorities, setting a precedent for the way foreign Internet firms operate. It has over 6 million registered users in Russia... (Time)

Volkswagen axes 30,000 jobs as it bids to recover from emissions cheating scandal
Car maker is grappling with huge car industry changes and a $15bn fine over Dieselgate. Volkswagen will cut up to 30,000 jobs globally as it attempts to recover from the biggest scandal in its history. After months of intense talks, unions and VW’s management team agreed a package that aims to save €3.7bn (£3.2bn) per year. The job cuts come after the company accepted a $15bn fine for cheating emissions tests in June... (The Independent)

Chinese President Xi's APEC speech puts China, Asia-Pacific in global "vanguard"
Chinese President Xi Jinping's keynote speech at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit on Saturday in Lima, Peru, placed China and the region at the forefront of a joint effort to reactivate the global economy, APEC participants and scholars have said. Mario Mongilardi, president of the Lima Chamber of Commerce, believed Xi sent an encouraging message to the business communities of the 21 APEC members... (Xinhuanet)

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