viernes, 28 de octubre de 2016

2016/10/27 - Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

When members of the UN Security Council wage war at each other
It is clear that in a supposedly common struggle against a common enemy - the Islamic State - two great powers (and their "allies") now oppose each other, USA against Russia, and the irony is that each relies on the legitimacy of the United Nations principle to intervene in the battle field: a new Right to Protect rule on the one side (the US) and basic principles of non-interference on the other (Russia). With aggressive statements being issued by both sides, this confrontation summons to consider the possibility of a tragic outcome, a third world war, even nuclear. A global conflict, let’s face it, will not spare Europe, let alone Europeans... (Read the entire article in the GEAB 108)

The Deutsche Bank case: a very useful scarecrow
When in trouble, the US always uses the same method, which consists of hiding its own problems by bringing out into the open the problems of others. Europe is regularly the fall guy. So when the world, in total awe, learns about the record fine of $14 billion that the US imposed on Deutsche Bank, we could certainly look horrified at the violations committed by this bank, but we must also see the interest which this sanction serves. Many commentators saw this as a little revenge after the Apple fine in Europe, a credible explanation, but there is more to this. By creating problems for the largest European bank, the United States has managed... (Read the entire article in the GEAB 108)

DB posts surprise profit despite threat of $14bn fine
The troubled German lender Deutsche Bank has unexpectedly returned to profit in the third quarter, beating analysts’ estimates and helping to alleviate concerns over its litigation issues. Deutsche bank, led by the British banker John Cryan, reported a profit of €278 million (£248m) for the three months to the end of September. This compares to €6 billion loss in the same quarter of 2015... (The Independent)

UK GDP growth slows to 0.5% after Brexit
The pace of the UK economy has dropped in the first official verdict on how the economy has performed after the UK voted to leave the EU in June. Growth in the three months to September dropped to 0.5 per cent, down from 0.7 per cent in the April to June quarter, acording to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)... (The Independent)

Rising Powers and International Security: the BRICS and the Syrian Conflict, by Adriana Erthal Abdenur
Some rising powers, including the BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China,and South Africa), have openly contested certain international security norms, for instance challenging the tendency to invoke humanitarian protection to carry out military intervention. However, the relevance of rising powers, and especially coalitions of such states, to specific conflicts remains poorly understood. How pertinent is the BRICS as a collective actor in international security, and what are their stances on major armed conflicts? This article focuses on the Syrian conflict, examining the BRICS coalition’s positions on the war since 2012... (LEAP)

Weber to May: UK can leave but cannot make decisions for EU
His outburst came after May angered some European leaders by telling her first EU summit that she expects Britain to be at the centre of European decision-making until Brexit takes place. Brexit was a relatively low-key issue at a summit dominated by other matters, including Russia, Syria and the migration crisis. But, in a brief speech at the end of an EU leaders’ dinner in Brussels on Thursday, May said Britain wanted to continue to play a central role in meetings and decisions until it leaves the bloc... (The Parliament Magazine)

EU drops law to limit cancer-linked chemical in food after industry complaint
The European commission has dropped plans to legally limit a pervasive but naturally occurring chemical found in food, that is linked to cancer, just days after lobbying by industry, the Guardian has learned. Campaigners say that leaked documents revealing the legislative retreat show “undue influence” by the food industry over EU law-making and a “permanent scandal”, although the issue is complex... (The Guardian)

Nuclear-Armed Foes Unite Against a UN Call to Shed Their Weapons
For all the divisions among world powers, one concern unites Russia and the U.S., India and Pakistan, North Korea and Israel at the United Nations: Keeping their nuclear weapons. Those nuclear-armed states and the three others — China, France and the U.K. — are working to head off a resolution calling for a global conference to establish a binding “legal process” to ban the manufacture, possession, stockpiling and use of the weapons. They’re bucking a popular cause backed by 50 nations, from Ireland to Brazil, which say the measure could win as many as 120 votes in the 193-member General Assembly... (Bloomberg)

EU trade deal with Canada on brink of collapse after Belgian disarray
The EU’s hopes of signing a free-trade agreement with Canada this week are on a knife-edge after Belgium announced it could not sign the treaty because of opposition from regional parliaments. The collapse of the negotiations in Belgium highlights the pitfalls that may await the British government when it seeks to negotiate a trade deal with the EU after Brexit... (The Guardian)

How to monitor the EU's new border security strategy
The European Council of 20-21 October has confirmed the EU’s undaunted resolve to outsource parts of its immigration control policy to third countries. The trend started initially with the EU-Turkey migration agreement earlier this year, and gained considerable momentum with the recent adoption of the Migration Partnership Framework. The Framework entails the negotiation of several "migration compacts" with key countries of origin and transit (initially Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Mali and Ethiopia), backed by significant financial and technical assistance packages... (EUObserver)

The BRICS: Aren’t breaking any time soon, by Maiara Folly
In 2009, when Yekaterinburg hosted the inaugural Head of State Summit of the BRIC coalition, the world was facing its most critical financial crisis since the Great Depression of the early 1930s. Despite the turbulent international context, the grouping (which became known as the BRICS after the official inclusion of South Africa in 2011) remained relatively insulated from the initial shocks of the crisis. While the developed world struggled to recover economically, the BRICS bounced back quickly and became even more vocal in demanding reform of the established international organisations, including the Bretton Woods institutions... (LEAP)

Philippine president calls for removal of all US troops
The Philippine president, Rodrigo Duterte, has continued his anti-US rhetoric by calling for the removal of all foreign troops from the Philippines, possibly within two years. Speaking to an audience of business people at the start of a three-day visit to Japan, Duterte acknowledged that his recent remarks about Manila’s military “separation” from the US had angered Washington, but said he was determined to pursue an independent foreign policy... (The Guardian)

The Kremlin's money problems
At a summit of the BRICS nations in India on 17 October, Russian president Vladimir Putin defiantly stated that Western powers could “screw themselves” over the threat of more sanctions against his country. Earlier the US and the UK had threatened to slap additional measures on Russia over its relentless bombardment of the Syrian city of Aleppo. Putin is eager to show to the world that sanctions have little impact on his country and that the West is primarily scoring an own goal by holding on to them... (EUObserver)

Venezuela protests against Maduro escalate, dozens injured
Venezuela's increasingly militant opposition stepped up its push to oust leftist leader Nicolas Maduro on Wednesday with protests that drew hundreds of thousands but also saw unrest leading to dozens of injuries and arrests. In an incident sure to inflame the already polarized situation, a policeman died after being shot on Wednesday night in central Miranda state... (Reuters)

domingo, 23 de octubre de 2016

2016/10/21 - Anticipación Política, Revista de Prensa - LEAP (GEAB Especial)

Gran aislamiento de EE.UU.: cuando las finanzas mundiales toman su propio camino, el precipicio está cerca

Hasta ahora, el gran aislamiento voluntario de EE.UU. frente al resto del mundo, actualmente en curso, era ante todo geopolítico, como ya hemos analizado en estas páginas innumerables veces, un aislamiento que no puede más que empeorar, sea cual sea el resultado de las elecciones presidenciales (para Trump, será por ausencia de política exterior; para Clinton, por su violencia). A esta dimensión política se añade ahora un ámbito hasta ahora evitado, un ámbito que se encontraba además en el corazón del poder de EE.UU. en el mundo de antes (no es de extrañar que llegue el momento en el que ya no puede sostenerse), las finanzas...   (Leer anuncio público )
El calendario del futuro del GEAB

La anticipación política no funciona como una bola de cristal. Los “datos del futuro” constituyen la materia prima del análisis: elecciones, cumbres, reuniones diversas y otros elementos que permiten esclarecer el futuro de hechos reales. El equipo del GEAB decidió que, a partir de junio de 2016, compartiría con sus lectores estos datos “en bruto” de la anticipación. El calendario del futuro determinó las fechas importantes de los tres meses siguientes, señaladas por el equipo de redacción, y las relacionó con observaciones sobre las perspectivas de transformación abiertas por cada una de ellas. Todo ello dio forma a un esquema de los tres meses siguientes, particularmente útil para cualquier dirigente... (Para leer más, GEAB 108 / Sección Perspectivas )

La ONU en 2017: la historia de la Sociedad de las Naciones en los años 30 se repite

¡Urgente! El último Consejo de Seguridad, bajo el mando de Rusia durante el mes de octubre , no ha logrado llegar a un acuerdo sobre una acción coordinada en Siria, poniendo de relieve un bloqueo inquietante de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas, circunscrita a su papel de observadora impotente. No obstante, la situación desastrosa en los frentes iraquí y sirio hace que mucha gente se cuestione el papel de la ONU y su capacidad para manejar conflictos internacionales, en los que los protagonistas parecen no conocer límites en la escalada de enfrentamientos, de los cuales las principales víctimas son las poblaciones civiles. Muertos, heridos, desparecidos, refugiados… Claramente la ONU no está funcionando bien... (Para leer más, GEAB 108 / Sección Perspectivas )

Francia en 2017: ¿Qué podemos esperar de las elecciones presidenciales? - Criterios y consejos

En resumidas cuentas, poca cosa. Ahora desarrollémoslo. Como nuestro equipo lamentaba en el número de septiembre, en el momento en el que el brexit inicia un inmenso trabajo de reorganización de Europa, con inmensas oportunidades pero también grandes peligros como en todo periodo de transición, los ciudadanos de ciertos países del centro de Europa se ven atrapados en medio de un caos de debates públicos inútiles e ineptos.
Inútiles, porque los niveles nacionales de decisión son secundarios, e ineptos, porque, en consecuencia, las propuestas de los diferentes bandos tienen un potencial de aplicación muy bajo. Marine Le Pen no hará que Frncia salga de Europa, ni que los extranjeros salgan de Francia. El resto no lograrán redirigir una economía y unos niveles de vida que dependen enteramente de los mecanismos europeos y globales de cooperación político-económica, mecanismos sobre los que no tienen nada que decir, explicar o proponer... (Para leer más, GEAB 108 / Sección Telescopio )
Fin del dominio estadounidense sobre la ICANN: hacia una privatización de las organizaciones que controlan Internet

La noticia ha resonado en EE.UU. y en todo el mundo. A partir del 1 de octubre, Internet “se liberará al fin del dominio estadounidense”.
¿Pero, de verdad? Es cierto que acaba de producirse un hito muy importante: EE.UU. ya no ejerce un control directo sobre la ICANN, una de las principales organizaciones al servicio de Internet, como veremos más adelante. El Gobierno de Obama (al que, por otra parte, todo esto ha pillado relativamente por sorpresa) ha accedido finalmente a la independización internacional de la ICANN. ¿Pieza fundamental en la construcción de un mundo multipolar o tecnocratización suplementaria de parte de la libertad digital? A este respecto, es interesante comparar las reacciones de los medios de comunicación a un lado y a otro del Atlántico. En EE.UU. se acusa a Obama de abandonar Internet y dejarlo en manos de dictaduras, mientras que, en Europa, prácticamente todos los medios de comunicación acogen el cambio (“La ICANN se independiza al fin de EE.UU.”, “EE.UU. cede por fin el control de Internet”, etc.) ... (Para leer más, GEAB 108 / Sección Telescopio )

Cuando las finanzas amenazan con abandonar Wall Street

Pero era necesario para camuflar las malas noticias que se acumulan sobre el sector financiero. Y las malas noticas vienen de los mayores compradores de bonos del tesoro estadounidense: los bancos centrales extranjeros. Los bancos centrales de China y Rusia, obviamente, pero también los de Japón, Arabia Saudita y Europa, todos están vendiendo en masa, a un ritmo histórico, los bonos del tesoro estadounidense que habían acumulado pacientemente a lo largo del tiempo. Por supuesto, todos tienen buenos motivos de índole nacional para hacerlo: esencialmente, hacer subir su moneda, que no para de bajar a causa de la debilidad de su economía...  (Para leer más, GEAB 108 / Sección Focus )

Inversiones, tendencias y recomendaciones

Es hora de deshacerse de las obligaciones soberanas occidentales. Teniendo en cuenta el artículo sobre los bonos del tesoro estadounidense, nuestro equipo piensa que es preferible evitar las obligaciones soberanas estadounidenses por el momento. En realidad, por otros motivos, recomendamos vender todas las obligaciones del Estado occidentales pues, al igual que los bancos centrales como el BCE, el BoE o el BoI continúan con sus expansiones cuantitativas, los rendimientos de estas obligaciones están al mínimo, lo que no solo quiere decir que no aportan gran cosa (o incluso nada en el caso de los vencimientos más cortos con tipos nulos o negativos), sino también que su valor solo puede bajar (recordemos que el valor de una obligación varía en sentido inverso a su tipo de interés)... (Para leer más, GEAB 108 )

miércoles, 19 de octubre de 2016

2016/10/18 - Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

US Isolation: When global finance turns away from the dollar system, it means the cliff is near
The United States has been voluntarily isolating itself from the rest of the world, and not just from a geopolitical point of view. This terrible isolation can only get worse, whatever the result of the presidential election: if Trump wins, it will be due to a lack of foreign policy; in the case of Clinton, her iron-fist will have a word. Another domain, namely finance, which has so far been spared, is being added to this political dimension; something which has always been at the centre of America’s power in the world. No wonder this happens at the very moment the US can no longer hold itself.
The Deutsche Bank case: a very useful scarecrow
When in trouble, the US always uses the same method, which consists of hiding its own problems by bringing out into the open the problems of others. Europe is regularly the fall guy. So when the world, in total awe, learns about the record fine of $14 billion that the United States imposed on Deutsche Bank... (Read th entire public announcement / GEAB 108)

Rejecting Trump, Wall Street Republican donors scatter largesse
Largely united in their dislike of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, some ultra-wealthy U.S. investors who play in conservative politics are warily weighing their choices, torn between third-party candidates, simply focusing on down-ballot contests or even voting for Democrat Hillary Clinton. As Clinton's lead over Trump has grown in opinion polls, some hedge fund managers who have traditionally donated big money to Republican presidential candidates see the congressional elections as their best hope... (Reuters)

Syrian president says Aleppo must be ‘cleaned’ as fighting continues
Russia says prepared to secure safe passage for rebels to quit Aleppo Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has spoken of the need to “clean” the besieged city of Aleppo while saying that victory in the strategic city give the Syrian army the opportunity to liberate other areas of the country from “terrorists.” Syria has been plunged into some of the worst violence of its five-year war since the collapse last month of a truce brokered by Washington and Moscow... (I24News)

Europe’s ExoMars Schiaparelli Lander on Course to Descend on Mars
A Mars lander left its mothership on Sunday after a seven-month journey from Earth and headed towards the red planet’s surface to test technologies for Europe’s planned first Mars rover, which will search for signs of past and present life. The disc-shaped 577-kilogramme (1,272 lb) Schiaparelli lander separated from the spacecraft Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO) at 1442 GMT as expected, starting a three-day descent to the surface... (Gadgets)

EU powers draft post-Brexit defence plan
The four largest EU powers after Brexit aim to create a new military structure to conduct crisis missions in Africa and to deter Russia. France, Italy, Germany, and Spain set our their plan in a letter, circulated on Monday (10 October) and seen by EUobserver, from their defence ministers to their counterparts in the other 24 EU states... (EUObserver) 

SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon announces new independence referendum bill
A consultation gets under way next week on plans for a second Scottish independence referendum, the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed. She told the party’s Glasgow conference that an Independence Referendum Bill would be published next week. It marks the first step to holding a second vote. Ms Sturgeon said Scotland had the right to choose a different path if it was not allowed to protect its interests “within the UK”... (BBC)

Montenegro’s Dukanovic battling to stay in power
Montenegro’s ruling social democrats (DPS) won parliamentary elections on Sunday (16 October), according to an unofficial count, but failed to gather sufficient support to continue to govern alone. The opposition also claimed to have obtained enough seats to form the next government. Political turmoil could cast a shadow on the small Balkan republic’s Nato and EU ambitions... (EUObserver)

EU needs better spending to regain citizens' trust
The new president of the EU's Court of Auditors has called on the EU to improve its accounts by delivering better value for money and more transparency, and ensure its financial rules are correctly applied. The EU faced a major challenge to regain trust, ECA President Klaus-Heiner Lehne told the European Parliament's Budgetary Control Committee Thursday."People cannot even begin to trust the EU institutions if they do not believe we are looking after their money properly and keeping a good account of how we are doing that," he said. (EU Business) 

BRICS to create credit rating agency to rival Fitch, others
The so-called Brics countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have agreed to fast-track the setting up of their own credit-rating agency to better cater to developing economies, revelling existing ones based in Western countries. India Prime Minister Narendra Modi said they agreed to move ahead on the ratings agency, although there was no timetable announced for its formation... (Africa News)

Tesla, Apple and Uber Push Lithium Prices Even Higher
After more than tripling in price this year, Lithium is no longer that dull commodity we take for granted in our consumer electronics: It’s the commodity powering the next, undeniable energy revolution. The tight supply picture emerging as electric cars, mega-batteries and massive energy storage solutions become the cornerstones of our lives could be on the edge of turning new lithium explorers into the next barons... (Oil Price)

Bromance Between Xi and Putin Grows as U.S. Spats Escalate
Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, will have more than vodka shots and gifts of ice cream to show for their warming relationship when they meet this weekend on the sidelines of a developing nations’ summit in India. Recent months have seen greater security cooperation between Russia and China as they find common ground against the U.S... (Bloomberg)

After Fukushima: The six essential features of the revolution in the nuclear power decision-making process for the 2010-2020 decade
For the sake of completeness, the title of this exercise in political anticipation applied to nuclear power should also include two other factors besides Fukushima, namely the Internet and the global energy crisis which is one of the elements of the global systemic crisis we are experiencing. In effect, it is the combination of these three factors which, according to LEAP/E2020, radically and permanently alters the whole decision-making process on nuclear power that we have known since this source of energy took its first steps after the Second World War. This decisional “revolution” will, during the course of the current decade, equally affect the methods to decide or, on the contrary, block the development of nuclear power, as the room for maneuver for national players in these decisions... (Excerpt from the GEAB 55)

Tepco shares slump after anti-nuclear novice wins Japan election
Shares in Tokyo Electric Power (9501.T) fell 8 percent on Monday after an anti-nuclear candidate won an upset victory in a Japanese regional election, in a blow to its attempts to restart the world’s biggest atomic power station and a challenge to the government’s energy policy. The election of Ryuichi Yoneyama, 49, a doctor-lawyer who has never held office, is a setback for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s energy policy, which relies on rebooting reactors that once met about 30 percent of the nation’s needs. All but two are shut down in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster... (Reuters)

EU-Africa talks pose questions on aid and security
Later this week in Brussels, EU leaders will be discussing forthcoming deals with a handful of African states. With repressive regimes like Sudan demanding that the EU finance border controls, leaders appear increasingly willing to do almost anything to stop people from crossing the Mediterranean to reach Italy... (EUObserver)

martes, 11 de octubre de 2016

2016/10/11 - Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

Here are the main topics of our spectacular upcoming GEAB 108 ! Stay tuned..
France 2017: What should we expect from the upcoming presidential elections? Can the Eurozone survive 2017? US Dollars & Treasury bonds - returning home. UN 2017: When the United Nations will discover the same fate that the League of Nations had back in the 30's. End of the US government control of ICANN: Towards the privatisation of internet control agencies. From the Cold War to the Third World War: A war over economic routes. Towards the Uberisation of Pollution Controls. But also our exclusive investment recommendations and the future electoral calendar... (Subscribe to the GEAB, your must-read bulletin)

Governments must heed IMF warning of $152tn global debt timebomb
First it was the august Bank for International Settlements. Now it is the International Monetary Fund sending out a warning about global debt. For the first time, the IMF has had a comprehensive look at indebtedness and the numbers are huge. Global debt is estimated at $152tn, or about 225% of annual global output. Two-thirds of the debt – approximately $100tn is held by the private sector. The IMF hopes the debt data published in its half-yearly fiscal report will chivvy governments into action before it is too late... (The Guardian)

Alaska Oil Reserves May Have Grown 80% on Giant Discovery
Alaska’s oil reserves may have just gotten 80 percent bigger after Dallas-based Caelus Energy LLC announced the discovery of 6 billion barrels under Arctic waters. The light-oil reserves were found in the company’s Smith Bay leases between Prudhoe Bay and Barrow along the Arctic shore, according to a statement from Caelus on Tuesday. As much as 40 percent of the find, or 2.4 billion barrels, is estimated as recoverable, the company said... (Bloomberg)

Li: Portugal may become bridge to other nations
New deals on table as Prime Minister Antonio Costa visits Beijing, Macao China and Portugal reinforced their ties as Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa met with Premier Li Keqiang on Sunday in Beijing during Costa’s ongoing visit to China. The two officials witnessed the signing of a stack of documents representing deals in such areas as third-party market cooperation and infrastructure. Costa, who began his official visit on Saturday, will stay in China until Wednesday... (IOSnews)

Poland cancels multi-billion euro Airbus Helicopters deal
The Polish government has cancelled talks with Airbus Helicopters on a multi-billion euro deal to buy military helicopters. The decision reopens the door to the helicopter makers that failed in the original tender. Poland’s Development Ministry said late on Tuesday that the negotiating position of the two sides on the purchase of 50 Caracal helicopters for 13.5 billion zlotys (3.14 billion euros) was “so different that further talks are pointless.”... (Deutsche Welle)

Britain Needs Fracking, But Let’s Do It Properly
The U.K. government has approved the country’s first hydraulic fracturing wells in the north of England, overruling the objections of the local council in Lancashire. It’s the correct decision given the nation’s growing energy needs; but rising opposition to fracking shows the nascent industry in the U.K. needs to do a better job of convincing the public that the economic benefits outweigh the environmental risks. (Bloomberg)

Qatari Investors Eyeing Control of Deutsche Bank
It was Anshu Jain himself who arranged the deal in May 2014 with Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabor al-Thani of Qatar. The two knew each other, of course – the former co-CEO of Deutsche Bank and the ex-Qatari prime minister, also known by his initials HBJ, who is one of the richest and most influential men in the Gulf region. HBJ had long been a valued Deutsche Bank customer before discreetly negotiating a deal with Jain that saw him invest 1.75 billion euros in the bank... (Spiegel online)

OPEC officials set for flurry of meetings to nail down Algeria deal
OPEC officials are embarking on an unusual flurry of meetings in the next six weeks, OPEC sources said on Friday, to nail down details of their deal to cut production agreed last week in Algiers. The chain of meetings, starting with ministers in Istanbul next week, signal that unlike in the first half of 2016, the exporting group is more serious now about managing the global supply glut and propping up prices... (Reuters).

Russia transfers nuclear-capable missiles to Kaliningrad
Russia has moved nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles into the Kaliningrad enclave bordering Poland and Lithuania, the Russian defence ministry said on Saturday, adding it was part of routine drills. “These missile units have been deployed more than once (in the Kaliningrad region) … and will be deployed as part of military training of the Russian armed forces,” ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said... (The Guardian) 

Egypt Formally Supports Morocco’s Return to the African Union
Egypt supports Morocco’s application to be reinstated in the African Union stating the kingdom has an important role to play in the development of Africa. “There is no obstacle that Egypt supports the request of Morocco back in the African bosom,” said the Egyptian diplomat in Cairo daily newspaper. “Egypt and the Kingdom of Morocco have strong fraternal ties.” he said... (MoroccoWorldNews) 

Russia’s robust stance puts America’s imprudence in Syria on leash
Tension has recently hit a new high between Moscow and Washington over the situation in Syria, which prompted the Russian leadership to send clear messages to the U.S. that the double-dealing and duplicity are no longer tolerable, analysts say. The Russian messages to the United States were on the military and diplomatic levels, following a number of statements and actions by Washington, regarding possible escalation against the Syrian army... (Xinhuanet)

Philippines to suspend joint exercises and patrols with US military
The Philippine defense chief has told the US military that plans for joint patrols and naval exercises in the disputed South China Sea have been put on hold, the first concrete break in defense cooperation after months of increasingly strident comments by the country’s new president... (The Guardian)

Canada Sets the Trend on Climate
Canada is an unlikely model for climate-change policy. As things stand, it’s a long way from keeping the promise it made as part of the Paris agreement to sharply cut carbon emissions. But its government is now proposing to make this right — and with an approach that deserves to be widely copied... (Bloomberg)

Syria’s war: UN Security Council votes on Aleppo
Western governments and Russia have clashed at the UN Security Council even while the Syrian government presses ahead with its military offensive against rebel-held areas of Aleppo. The UN Security Council voted on Saturday on two rival resolutions on the fighting – one drafted by France calling for an end to air strikes and a second by Russia that urged a ceasefire but made no mention of halting the bombings. (AlJazeera)

Argentina and Brazil Double Down on Mercosur, Sanctions for Venezuela
Argentinean President Mauricio Macri and his Brazilian counterpart Michael Temer agreed Monday on the need to “empower” Mercosur. During a meeting, the two presidents talked about the permanence of Venezuela in the regional bloc as well as Colombia’s decision to vote “no” on the peace deal with the guerilla group FARC... (Panam Post)

sábado, 8 de octubre de 2016

2016/10/05 - Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

Pound, Dollar: Would devaluation be the best solution?
Brexit has caused a fall of the pound sterling. This fall turned out to be beneficial to the UK economy as it allows for the revitalisation of exports, an increase in production activity and secures relevant jobs. A strategy for the country's reindustrialisation has even been designed. Brexit means also a detachment of British politics from the clutches of the City, but would the pound serve as an example to the dollar, the latter being another widely overvalued currency which weighs on the economy? ... (Continue reading in our GEAB bulletin 107 / Sept. 2016)

Global Banks Fight Back on Brexit, Warning $51 Billion at Stake
Britain crashing out of the European single market could cost banks and associated businesses in the U.K. almost 40 billion pounds ($51 billion) in lost revenue, undermining a key sector of the economy. Finance firms are making a fresh bid for special status in upcoming Brexit negotiations with the EU after U.K. government officials this week indicated banks will get no favours... (Bloomberg)

'Kafkaesque' EU to freeze Portugal and Spain funds
The European Parliament is protesting a proposal to cut structural funds for deficit-ridden Portugal and Spain, but the European Commission says that rules are rules and that the funds must be suspended. Jyrki Katainen, in charge of job creation for the EU commission, said they would be unlocked as soon as Portugal and Spain brought their budgets in line with EU recommendations. He said that model would make the harm ”minimal”... (EUObserver)

Trump's Presidential Chances Are Pushing Traders Toward the Yen
Even though polls show a receding chance of Donald Trump becoming U.S. president, money managers wary of public opinion being proved wrong are increasingly looking toward Japan for an ideal hedge. Traders are unprepared for a victory by the Republican nominee that could send cash flooding into the yen, which acts as a haven in times of turmoil, according to investor and former International Monetary Fund Economist Stephen Jen. UniCredit Bank AG, among the most bullish forecasters on the Japanese currency, says it may strengthen past its year-end estimate if Trump wins. (Bloomberg)

Baghdad warns of 'regional war' over Turkish military presence
Iraq's prime minister warned Turkey on Wednesday it risked triggering a regional war by keeping troops in his territory, as the neighboring states summoned each other's ambassadors in a mounting diplomatic stand-off. Turkey's parliament voted last week to extend its military operation in Iraq and take on "terrorist organizations" - a likely reference to Kurdish militants and Islamic State... (Reuters)

In Aleppo death follows us. But we still love life
The past week in Aleppo has been totally different from the past five years. It feels as if the Assad government is trying to wipe out what remains of east Aleppo. It is often referred to as the most dangerous city in the world and these days there is no escaping the horror... (The Guardian) 
Duterte visit to China may lead to changing alliances in East Asia
The friendly relationship between the Philippines and the United States has been one of the pillars of Washington's strategic military rebalance to Asia under President Barack Obama. But the alliance has been under strain since Duterte came to power three months ago and chafed at U.S. criticism of his bloody war on drugs, which has led to the killing of more than 3,100 alleged drug users and dealers by police and vigilantes... (Reuters) 

Turkish-Russian cease-fire deal, military cooperation on Syria likely
With Putin's visit to Turkey approaching, officials from Turkey and Russia spoke of a possible cease-fire deal between the countries for Aleppo or even a joint military operation in Syria. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksey Meşkov said to TASS news agency on Friday that Russia is ready to evaluate Ankara's cease-fire offer for Aleppo. Yesterday, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said Turkey would cooperate with Russia "if Russia is sincere in cooperating... (Daily Sabah) 

U.S.-Led NATO in Spotlight as Europe Pushes Joint Army, Defenses
European nations are pressing ahead with plans for joint defenses and military cooperation, raising fears that U.S.-led NATO could be undermined. With Britain poised to quit the European Union and Donald Trump raising doubts over NATO, France and Germany have been spearheading moves to boost Europe’s capacity to run its own security operations... (NBCNews)

Why the United States Should Exercise Restraint Before Launching A New War in Syria
Tensions between Russia and the United States are coming to a head over the civil war in Syria. Washington has suspended bilateral talks with Russia to end the five-year old war. Moscow has suspended an agreement to destroy 34 tons of weapons-grade plutonium that was reached during the year 2000, using especially harsh rhetoric. Meanwhile, Syrian regime forces—with the backing of Russian airpower—are continuing to mount a fierce attack on the partially rebel-held city of Aleppo with Washington seemingly powerless to influence events on the ground... (National Interest)

Militants launch attack on Indian army camp in Kashmir
Militants attacked an Indian army camp in Indian-administered Kashmir late Sunday night killing one soldier, according to police. An Indian paramilitary Border Security Force (BSF) officer was killed and another wounded, according to Imtiyaz Ahmad, Indian senior police superintendant... (CNN)
Google takes on Apple and Samsung with its new smart phone
Google has launched a new line in smartphones along with other gadgets designed to take on electronic giants like Apple and Samsung. The decision to brand the phones with the Pixel name, rather than Nexus, marks a break with the past, and is intended to signify that they were designed in house rather than by another manufacturer... (Euronews)
Can Democracy Survive Global Disorder?
The question posed by this year’s Belgrade Security Forum is an important one: the pressure on democratic institutions are felt worldwide. Many of these pressures can rightly be described as disorders: Global migration, state collapse in the Middle East and Central Africa, the violent terror of the IS, and climate change are some of these disorders that are challenging to respond to. In worst case they may threaten to undermine our democratic institutions as well... (Belgrade Forum)

US and South Korea will ‘pay the price’ for missile system, China paper says
The US and South Korea are destined to “pay the price” for their decision to deploy an advanced missile defence system which will inevitably prompt a “counter attack”, China’s top newspaper said on Saturday. Tension on the Korean peninsula has been high this year, beginning with North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January, which was followed by a satellite launch, a string of tests of various missiles, and its fifth and largest nuclear test last month... (The Guardian)

Colombia, like the UK, just sabotaged itself through a referendum
Just like 48 per cent of the British people on the morning of 24 June, many Colombians felt a profound shock on Sunday at their country’s decision to narrowly reject a peace deal with the FARC communist paramilitary group. Although fundamentally different to the EU Referendum – Colombia was voting on a deal that would have brought a war spanning 52 years, with more than 260,000 victims, to an end – there are some surprising parallels can be drawn between this vote and Brexit... (The Independent)