sábado, 8 de octubre de 2016

2016/10/05 - Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

Pound, Dollar: Would devaluation be the best solution?
Brexit has caused a fall of the pound sterling. This fall turned out to be beneficial to the UK economy as it allows for the revitalisation of exports, an increase in production activity and secures relevant jobs. A strategy for the country's reindustrialisation has even been designed. Brexit means also a detachment of British politics from the clutches of the City, but would the pound serve as an example to the dollar, the latter being another widely overvalued currency which weighs on the economy? ... (Continue reading in our GEAB bulletin 107 / Sept. 2016)

Global Banks Fight Back on Brexit, Warning $51 Billion at Stake
Britain crashing out of the European single market could cost banks and associated businesses in the U.K. almost 40 billion pounds ($51 billion) in lost revenue, undermining a key sector of the economy. Finance firms are making a fresh bid for special status in upcoming Brexit negotiations with the EU after U.K. government officials this week indicated banks will get no favours... (Bloomberg)

'Kafkaesque' EU to freeze Portugal and Spain funds
The European Parliament is protesting a proposal to cut structural funds for deficit-ridden Portugal and Spain, but the European Commission says that rules are rules and that the funds must be suspended. Jyrki Katainen, in charge of job creation for the EU commission, said they would be unlocked as soon as Portugal and Spain brought their budgets in line with EU recommendations. He said that model would make the harm ”minimal”... (EUObserver)

Trump's Presidential Chances Are Pushing Traders Toward the Yen
Even though polls show a receding chance of Donald Trump becoming U.S. president, money managers wary of public opinion being proved wrong are increasingly looking toward Japan for an ideal hedge. Traders are unprepared for a victory by the Republican nominee that could send cash flooding into the yen, which acts as a haven in times of turmoil, according to investor and former International Monetary Fund Economist Stephen Jen. UniCredit Bank AG, among the most bullish forecasters on the Japanese currency, says it may strengthen past its year-end estimate if Trump wins. (Bloomberg)

Baghdad warns of 'regional war' over Turkish military presence
Iraq's prime minister warned Turkey on Wednesday it risked triggering a regional war by keeping troops in his territory, as the neighboring states summoned each other's ambassadors in a mounting diplomatic stand-off. Turkey's parliament voted last week to extend its military operation in Iraq and take on "terrorist organizations" - a likely reference to Kurdish militants and Islamic State... (Reuters)

In Aleppo death follows us. But we still love life
The past week in Aleppo has been totally different from the past five years. It feels as if the Assad government is trying to wipe out what remains of east Aleppo. It is often referred to as the most dangerous city in the world and these days there is no escaping the horror... (The Guardian) 
Duterte visit to China may lead to changing alliances in East Asia
The friendly relationship between the Philippines and the United States has been one of the pillars of Washington's strategic military rebalance to Asia under President Barack Obama. But the alliance has been under strain since Duterte came to power three months ago and chafed at U.S. criticism of his bloody war on drugs, which has led to the killing of more than 3,100 alleged drug users and dealers by police and vigilantes... (Reuters) 

Turkish-Russian cease-fire deal, military cooperation on Syria likely
With Putin's visit to Turkey approaching, officials from Turkey and Russia spoke of a possible cease-fire deal between the countries for Aleppo or even a joint military operation in Syria. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksey Meşkov said to TASS news agency on Friday that Russia is ready to evaluate Ankara's cease-fire offer for Aleppo. Yesterday, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said Turkey would cooperate with Russia "if Russia is sincere in cooperating... (Daily Sabah) 

U.S.-Led NATO in Spotlight as Europe Pushes Joint Army, Defenses
European nations are pressing ahead with plans for joint defenses and military cooperation, raising fears that U.S.-led NATO could be undermined. With Britain poised to quit the European Union and Donald Trump raising doubts over NATO, France and Germany have been spearheading moves to boost Europe’s capacity to run its own security operations... (NBCNews)

Why the United States Should Exercise Restraint Before Launching A New War in Syria
Tensions between Russia and the United States are coming to a head over the civil war in Syria. Washington has suspended bilateral talks with Russia to end the five-year old war. Moscow has suspended an agreement to destroy 34 tons of weapons-grade plutonium that was reached during the year 2000, using especially harsh rhetoric. Meanwhile, Syrian regime forces—with the backing of Russian airpower—are continuing to mount a fierce attack on the partially rebel-held city of Aleppo with Washington seemingly powerless to influence events on the ground... (National Interest)

Militants launch attack on Indian army camp in Kashmir
Militants attacked an Indian army camp in Indian-administered Kashmir late Sunday night killing one soldier, according to police. An Indian paramilitary Border Security Force (BSF) officer was killed and another wounded, according to Imtiyaz Ahmad, Indian senior police superintendant... (CNN)
Google takes on Apple and Samsung with its new smart phone
Google has launched a new line in smartphones along with other gadgets designed to take on electronic giants like Apple and Samsung. The decision to brand the phones with the Pixel name, rather than Nexus, marks a break with the past, and is intended to signify that they were designed in house rather than by another manufacturer... (Euronews)
Can Democracy Survive Global Disorder?
The question posed by this year’s Belgrade Security Forum is an important one: the pressure on democratic institutions are felt worldwide. Many of these pressures can rightly be described as disorders: Global migration, state collapse in the Middle East and Central Africa, the violent terror of the IS, and climate change are some of these disorders that are challenging to respond to. In worst case they may threaten to undermine our democratic institutions as well... (Belgrade Forum)

US and South Korea will ‘pay the price’ for missile system, China paper says
The US and South Korea are destined to “pay the price” for their decision to deploy an advanced missile defence system which will inevitably prompt a “counter attack”, China’s top newspaper said on Saturday. Tension on the Korean peninsula has been high this year, beginning with North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January, which was followed by a satellite launch, a string of tests of various missiles, and its fifth and largest nuclear test last month... (The Guardian)

Colombia, like the UK, just sabotaged itself through a referendum
Just like 48 per cent of the British people on the morning of 24 June, many Colombians felt a profound shock on Sunday at their country’s decision to narrowly reject a peace deal with the FARC communist paramilitary group. Although fundamentally different to the EU Referendum – Colombia was voting on a deal that would have brought a war spanning 52 years, with more than 260,000 victims, to an end – there are some surprising parallels can be drawn between this vote and Brexit... (The Independent)

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