lunes, 29 de agosto de 2016

2016/08/26 Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

Internet, artificial intelligence, robotics: 2040, from human enhancement to human … obsolescence?
The political anticipation method applied by the GEAB reveals that long-term trends are strong undercurrents on which short-term trends usually evolve. So, when our team commits to primarily anticipate phases of the crisis on the horizon in several years, it takes into serious consideration these structural macro-trends. For example, the tenable dethronement of oil as the ultra-dominant energy source is the macro-trend which allowed us to anticipate its short-term price collapse and its medium-term non-recovery... (Read the article published in the GEAB No 103)

Welcome to the Exclusive GEAB Readers' Club !
The confidential letter named "GEAB" is a monthly analysis support, the ultimate tool in crisis management. It is showing you the importance of anticipation (be it political or financial) in your work. When it comes to decision making, is it politics which rules the finance world or the other way around? Should you be afraid of the crisis? If you are an investor, consultant, economist, researcher, trainer, entrepreneur, or just someone interested in geopolitics, the GEAB bulletin is meant for you. (Register and receive the GEAB bulletins, it is quick and easy)

Norway to Rely on Gas Dominance for Key Role in Brexit Talks
Norway is counting on its massive exports of natural gas to the U.K. to give it an advantage in talks as Britain struggles to extract itself from the European Union. The U.K.’s so-called Brexit vote has not only thrown its relationship with the EU wide open but also called into question how it will continue trading with Norway, its North Sea neighbor outside the bloc on which it relies for almost 40 percent of its natural gas... (Bloomberg)

Heads of Germany, France, Italy to discuss ‘Relaunching Europe’ after Brexit vote
The leaders of Germany, France and Italy will meet on Monday to discuss how to keep the European project together in the second set of talks between the premiers of the euro zone’s three largest economies since Britain’s shock vote to leave the bloc... (Newsweek)

Why the days of Western banks in Asia are clearly numbered
N. Balakrishnan says the rising might of Eastern rivals and their own eroded reputations indicate that Western lenders, often guilty of bad choices, may become just a historical footnote within a generation . Many people already know that Chinese banks are some of the largest in the world. But I was astonished to learn recently that some banks in India have a market capitalisation greater than the mighty Deutsche Bank. One is the HDFC Bank, founded in 1977... (SCMP)

Brexit unlikely before 2019
When Theresa May launched her campaign in Birmingham last month (11 July) to become the next leader of the UK’s Conservative party, she made the now famous promise that “Brexit means Brexit”, adding that she would “make a success of it”. However, she never said when it would actually happen.... (EUObserver)

Provoking nuclear war by media – John Pilger
The exoneration of a man accused of the worst of crimes, genocide, made no headlines. Neither the BBC nor CNN covered it. The Guardian allowed a brief commentary. Such a rare official admission was buried or suppressed, understandably. It would explain too much about how the rulers of the world rule.... (

Email scandal reveals institutional corruption in US
The US democracy is always talked about by some American politicians as a model for other countries. However, a recent email scandal over Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton may turn upside down some people’s view of its so-called democracy. The emails leaked by WikiLeaks showed Democratic Party leaders had sought to undermine the campaign of Clinton’s rival Bernie Sanders... (China Daily)

World’s Biggest Pension Fund Loses $52 Billion in Stock Rout
The world’s biggest pension fund posted a $52 billion loss last quarter as stocks tumbled and the yen surged, wiping out all investment gains since it overhauled its strategy by boosting shares and cutting bonds. Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund lost 3.9 percent, or 5.2 trillion yen ($52 billion), in the three months ended June 30, reducing assets to 129.7 trillion yen, it said in Tokyo on Friday... (Bloomberg)

Global equities set 2-week low before Yellen speech, dollar dips
Global shares slipped to a two-week low and the dollar edged down on Friday as investors turned cautious before a keynote speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that could map out a clearer path for U.S. interest rates. The MSCI All-Country World index .MIWD00000PUS was down 0.1 percent by 1041 GMT, after slipping to its lowest level since Aug. 9 earlier in the session... (Reuters)

Russia and Saudi Arabia to decide the fate of oil
Crude oil futures were rising in price steadily last week. Traders are full of optimism. They are confident that world’s largest players will take measures to stabilize the oil market. First of all, it goes about agreements between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The first attempt to reach an agreement in Doha suffered a fiasco in April. Is there a hope this time... (Pravda Report)

Japan, China and South Korea turn up the heat on North Korea
Japan, China and South Korea agreed Aug. 24 to lead international efforts to urge North Korea to refrain from further provocative acts after it fired a ballistic missile from a submarine in the Sea of Japan. Foreign ministers Fumio Kishida of Japan, Wang Yi of China and Yun Byung-se of South Korea decided on this approach hours after the 5:30 a.m. missile launch... (Asahi)

Chinese navy conducts drill in Sea of Japan
China’s navy says it has carried out a “confrontation drill” in the Sea of Japan, with two fleets embarking on the exercise. State news agency Xinhua on Friday quoted a military source as saying that foreign aircraft had attempted surveillance of the drill. (

Open Letter to the European Leaders: Countering the British nationalist takeover with a European democratic blow
“We have all got it right, Brexit will ultimately not result in Great Britain leaving the EU. Nevertheless, Brexit is paralysing the European decision-making system. What we are currently seeing is a kind of EU political takeover which looks nothing like democracy, and much more like a “coup d’etat”... (LEAP)

EuroBRICS Youth Platform and LEAP in Shangai for the Youth Innovation Competition on Global Governance 2016
Marie-Hélène Caillol, President of LEAP and Editor in Chief of the GEAB and some members of our Euro-BRICS Youth Platform were in Shangai for the Youth Innovation Competition on Global Governance (YICGG). It was hosted by the University of Fudan. Our President was invited as member of the jury. YICGG2016 aims at gathering information about outstanding youths from all over the world and inject new vitality into the global governance in the framework of the United Nations’ 2030 development agenda... (LEAP)

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