2018/02/23 - Natural gas sets the stage for an armed conflict in the East Mediterranean. Gefira Financial Bullletin 21

Natural gas sets the stage for an armed conflict in the East Mediterranean

The efforts of individual countries to access the gas fields in the south-eastern part of the Mediterranean make the area very vulnerable to new conflicts and war and can also lead to a dispute within NATO and affect Europe’s energy security, putting the EASTMED pipeline in question. The war for natural resources is looming large.
The first problem is the relationship between Cyprus and Turkey. Ankara, the only capital which recognizes North Cyprus, says that all activities related to the extraction of gas in the Cypriot area are an encroachment on the interests of North Cyprus. While Turkey does not recognize agreements between Cyprus and other countries on the issue of economic exclusive zone (EEZ) or licenses for gas exploration in Cypriot territorial waters, Nicosia holds the opposite opinion. Ankara, through the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) puts forward claims that it is entitled to look for gas and oil in Cypriot waters and has the right to defend its interests there. Cyprus issued a number of concessions to various mining companies on more than half of the blocks (i.e. parts of the economic exclusive zone on which companies could explore gas or oil) located within the Cypriot EZZ. President Erdoğan warned Cyprus and international gas exploration companies that the violation of Turkish interests would have bad consequences.¹⁾Erdogan warns Greece, Cyprus over gas search, Aegean islets, ABC News 2018-02-13. In the middle of February 2018 the warning was made good and so the Saipem 1200 mining vessel operating for Italian company – Eni was blocked by Turkish ships. Italy responded by sending a military ship to the area.²⁾Italy sends frigate to Cyprus’s EEZ, Ekathimerini 2018-02-13. This shows how explosive the situation is now that two NATO member states want to pursue economic goals without backing them with diplomacy.

It is worth mentioning that also in February a Turkish coast guard boat rammed a Greek patrol ship in the Aegean Sea,³⁾Greece says won’t tolerate border challenges after Turkish collision, Reuters 2018-02-15. which shows that the Turkish government is willing to use military force.
The deepening cooperation between Cyprus, Greece, Israel and Italy regarding the EastMed gas pipeline project⁴⁾Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Israel sign MoU for East Med gas pipeline, New Europe 2017-12,05. is another flashpoint. The new pipeline, whose aim will be to supply gas from the Caspian Sea to Southern Europe, would weaken the transit role of the Turkish TANAP.
Another potential conflict is the one between Turkey and Egypt over the rich Zohr gas field discovered only in 2015. Ankara does not recognize the 2003 Cypriot-Egyptian EEZ accords and the 2013 sea border agreements between Cairo and Nicosia, which assign the Zohr gas field to Egypt.⁵⁾Egypt defends Cyprus gas deal after Turkey criticism, Daily Mail 2018-02-08. ⁶⁾Egypt rejects Turkey’s stance on Cyprus demarcation agreement, Energy Egypt 2018-02-09. At the beginning of February 2018, the Egyptian government warned Turkey that further interference in this area would be met with a decisive reaction.⁷⁾Egypt warns Turkey over eastern Mediterranean economic interests, Reuters 2018-02-07.
The relations between Turkey and Egypt are already strained. Though Turkey was a supporter of the Egyptian Brotherhood and Mohamed Mursi, who took power in Egypt in 2011, nowadays there is no love lost between Ankara and Cairo, because in 2013 the Trukey-friendly government was toppled. In a 2016 interview, President Erdoğan gave vent to his anger, calling the current Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, a “putschist” who killed thousands of his own people.⁸⁾Erdoğan blasts Egypt’s ‘putschist president’ Sisi in al-Jazeera interview, Al Araby 2016-07-22.
The sea area between Israel and Lebanon is the most explosive area, which extends along the edges of three Lebanese gas exploration Blocks: 8, 9, 10 of which Block 9 is said to be the most profitable and is claimed by Israel. In the first half of February 2018, Lebanon signed a contract for exploratory and production works with Italian Eni, French Total and Russian Novatek.⁹⁾Risking Israeli dispute, Lebanon signs deal with 3 oil firms, The Washington Post 2018-02-09. Since the works are to be carried out in Block 9,¹⁰⁾Lebanon to begin offshore energy search in block disputed by Israel, Reuters 2018-02-09. Israel described Lebanon’s action as “very provocative”,¹¹⁾Israel, Lebanon argue over offshore energy block, Cyprus Mail, 2018-01-31. paving the way for a military showdown. In response to it, the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasr Allah threatened to target Israeli offshore gas platforms.¹²⁾Hezbollah threatens Israeli offshore gas rigs with missiles, Ynetnews 2018-06-02.
The Israeli media are already speculating about the third Lebanese war and suggest that the Hezbollah attack on Israel is inevitable.¹³⁾Rockets, missiles and more: predicting the third Lebanon war, Jeruselem Post 2018-02-09. In mid-February, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson declared that Washington could help resolve the dispute between Israel and Lebanon, but Hasan Nasr Allah refused to have talks with the United States, a dishonest broker. Hezbollah is supported by Iran as is Lebanon by Turkey. Tel Aviv accuses Ankara of supporting Hamas, while Turkey says it merely defends Islam and Palestinians.¹⁴⁾Turkey rejects Israel’s claim Ankara helps Hamas, The Jerusalem Post 2018-02-15. The presence of Israeli troops in Cyprus is perceived by President Erdoğan as interference in the Turkish sphere of influence. It was in June 2017 that Israeli commandos carried out the largest military exercises so far, aimed at counteracting a possible annexation of Cyprus by Turkey.¹⁵⁾Israeli Commandos Heading to Cyprus for Largest-ever Drill, Haaretz 2018-02-15.
Gas deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean attract the attention of European, Russian, Iranian, Turkish and American armed forces. Cyprus occupies here a strategically important place. The number of players is a sum of the countries directly involved and their allies. Gas, like crude oil, has the potential of igniting a new wave of violent encounters between enemies and friends.

References   [ + ]

1.	↑	Erdogan warns Greece, Cyprus over gas search, Aegean islets, ABC News 2018-02-13.
2.	↑	Italy sends frigate to Cyprus’s EEZ, Ekathimerini 2018-02-13.
3.	↑	Greece says won’t tolerate border challenges after Turkish collision, Reuters 2018-02-15.
4.	↑	Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Israel sign MoU for East Med gas pipeline, New Europe 2017-12,05.
5.	↑	Egypt defends Cyprus gas deal after Turkey criticism, Daily Mail 2018-02-08.
6.	↑	Egypt rejects Turkey’s stance on Cyprus demarcation agreement, Energy Egypt 2018-02-09.
7.	↑	Egypt warns Turkey over eastern Mediterranean economic interests, Reuters 2018-02-07.
8.	↑	Erdoğan blasts Egypt’s ‘putschist president’ Sisi in al-Jazeera interview, Al Araby 2016-07-22.
9.	↑	Risking Israeli dispute, Lebanon signs deal with 3 oil firms, The Washington Post 2018-02-09.
10.	↑	Lebanon to begin offshore energy search in block disputed by Israel, Reuters 2018-02-09.
11.	↑	Israel, Lebanon argue over offshore energy block, Cyprus Mail, 2018-01-31.
12.	↑	Hezbollah threatens Israeli offshore gas rigs with missiles, Ynetnews 2018-06-02.
13.	↑	Rockets, missiles and more: predicting the third Lebanon war, Jeruselem Post 2018-02-09.
14.	↑	Turkey rejects Israel’s claim Ankara helps Hamas, The Jerusalem Post 2018-02-15.
15.	↑	Israeli Commandos Heading to Cyprus for Largest-ever Drill, Haaretz 2018-02-15.

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February 23, 2018 by The Board

2018/02/22 - When fact-checkers fail: an answer to Sara Pellegatta of the Soros-funded Atlantic Council. Gefira.

When fact-checkers fail: an answer to Sara Pellegatta of the Soros-funded Atlantic Council

Further in the article she compares a study by the Dutch statistic agency (the CBS) with ours, making a similar assessment:At no point in our article on the Dutch demographics do we claim that “the Dutch population will disappear in the next few decades”. We state: “Cerberus on the other hand shows that in 2015 the Dutch population started to decline rapidly and in 2060 there will be 12 million Dutch left while at the end of the century there will only be 9 million native Dutch.³⁾Cerberus 2.0 predicts with scientific precision the disappearance of the Dutch population, Gefira 2017-06-05.

Our analyses on the Dutch and Italian demographics recently went under “fact-checking” by Sara Pellegatta¹⁾#ElectionWatch: Murky Metrics in Italian Migration Debate, Medium 2018-02-07. of the “Digital Forensic Reseach Lab” of the Atlantic Council.
Mrs. Pellegatta’s claim is that our analyses were “murky” and “controversial”, going on to discuss the impact they’d have on the immigration debate in the upcoming Italian elections. We are open to address her concerns:

• she opens by stating that we claim that Italians will be soon a minority within their own country.

Our study says it will be around 2080.²⁾The incredibly shrinking Italian population: by 2080, Italians will be a minority within their own country, Gefira 2018-01-18. Now, while “soon” does not have a specific quantification, 2080 is not exactly around the corner. Her statement is rather distorting.
Unlike the previous preferred wording, this one is simply false. “Minority by the end of the century”, our claim, does not match what Mrs. Pellegatta claims in her article “will disappear in the next few decades”.
She further claims that the CBS study disproves our projection. Let’s put both side by sideAbove is the CBS study, making a projecting starting in 1996 and ending slightly after 2056, in 2060.
The estimate of the CBS is that by 2060, the total population in the Netherlands will be between 17.2 million and 19.7 million, and that “over the next few decades, the population of the Netherlands will grow solely on account of migrant arrivals, against a decline in the number of native Dutch inhabitants. As of 2017, 23 percent of the population have a western or non-western migration background. This share is expected to reach 34 percent by 2060″.
Let’s compare those numbers with our projection:As the chart above shows, our projection focused on a longer time frame, from 1950 to after 2095.
For the segment analysed by the CBS, starting in 1996 and ending in 2060, our analysis predicts:

• A total population in the Netherlands of roughly 18 million by 2060, which is in line with the fork 17.2-19.7 projected by the CBS.
• A native Dutch population of roughly 12 million (the CBS chart says 12.09) and a population with migrant background of roughly 6 million. Basic maths says that 6 million out of 18 is 33%, very close to the 34% claimed by the CBS for 2060.

The numbers posted by the CBS are very close to ours, within the standard deviation error. Mrs. Pellegatta’s claim that “they do not validate” our analysis is simply wrong. If anything, they prove that our methodology is correct. The only noticeable difference between our projection and the CBS one, which is what might have induced her misjudgement, is that we cover a longer time frame, 150 years instead of 65. In this longer time frame, at the current trend, the Dutch population would continue to shrink, while the foreign population will continue to grow.
We therefore would like to invite Mrs. Pellegatta to correct her fact-checking, as our allegedly murky analysis is actually confirmed by fact-checking with CBS data.
As for her other claims, unrelated to the demographic analysis:

• we do not have any connection with Lega Nord politician Lorenzo Fontana. We never met him. He does not even follow us on Twitter. It’s within his rights and freedoms to use our demographic analysis. The same can be said for Casa Pound candidate Simone Di Stefano.
• we have no association with any of the websites, apart from newropeans, listed in Mrs. Pellagatta’s article that reported our study. We do have an agreement with a couple of websites that are allowed to reblog our contents, but none of them is actually listed in her analysis.
• we would like to understand why the UN Declaration of Human Rights of Indigenous People should not count for indigenous Europeans.
• the legal action by Mrs.Calliol and her daughter failed.
• as far as George Soros is concerned, we were reported to the EU Disinformation Review, by the organization Kremlin Watch, part of the European Values think thank,⁴⁾European Values 2015 Annual report, European Values. funded by him. Similarly, another attempt of slander was made by Costanza Hermanin, a former senior officer of Soros’s Open Society Foundations. Finally, the Atlantic Council is also funded by Mr. Soros.⁵⁾Annual Report 2016-2017, Atlantic Council. It seems that the only people who have problems with our work and regularly slander it are paid by him. It bodes ill for the future of democracy and our freedoms that a foreign oligarch is allowed to meddle freely in the political arena and try to silence voices of dissent.

Nonetheless, we trust in her intellectual integrity and we invite her to check by herself whether the claims in our demographic study for the time frame 1996-2060 correspond to the CBS projection. If they do, and they do, we would appreciate it if she could rectify her report. We are open to any enquiry on the topic.

References   [ + ]

1.	↑	#ElectionWatch: Murky Metrics in Italian Migration Debate, Medium 2018-02-07.
2.	↑	The incredibly shrinking Italian population: by 2080, Italians will be a minority within their own country, Gefira 2018-01-18.
3.	↑	Cerberus 2.0 predicts with scientific precision the disappearance of the Dutch population, Gefira 2017-06-05.
4.	↑	European Values 2015 Annual report, European Values.
5.	↑	Annual Report 2016-2017, Atlantic Council.

2018/02/20 - Political Anticipation - A GEAB by LEAP Press review

US Debt / Inflation: The FED as a support tool for Mr Trump’s objectives
At the beginning of February, the US stock markets, followed by the financial markets of the rest of the world, experienced a violent correction. In two days, the Dow Jones Index erased its January gains and entered a downward spiral. Since then, the financial world has been looking feverish. The correction developed its own momentum, due, particularly, to the impact of new volatility derivatives. However, its real starting point was on February 2nd, when the January trend of hourly wage growth was published; it rose by 2.9% after 2.6% last December. That acceleration caused the market to fear a faster monetary tightening than expected in the United States and, consequently, a slowdown in economic growth. After nine years of continuous rise – one of the longest in Wall Street history – the US market is now getting overvalued and, consequently, any downward growth revision immediately translates into massive profit taking... (Free public announcement)

European Trade Agreements – 2019: Death of the Swan
Brexit seemed to have opened up the long-awaited project of redefining the functioning and objectives of the European machine. But today Brussels prefers to boast about the UK's difficulties, and, thinking of itself as unavoidable, it is undertaking to unearth all its bottom drawer projects. Hence, over the heads of the citizens, a whole bunch of "CETA like" trade agreements (Japan, Mercosur, and soon New Zealand, Australia) are being passed, for the sake of a ‘gaping globalisation’ ideology which makes everyone flee, as well as a forced march towards an ultra-risky integration of the Balkans is being trigerred, ignoring peoples and not showing the slightest reference to any democratic process. Our team believes this European ‘hysteria’ is a swan song; both the creator and the announcer of the violent halt to be imposed on the central European institution by the up-coming legislative body from 2019 on... (Read full report - GEAB 112)

Calendar of future events: February-May 2018
The future is full of factual data on which must be based anticipations that shed light on our decisions. That's why, once a quarter, our team shares with GEAB readers this ‘raw’ data of its work in the form of an annnotated calendar for the next three months; a calendar which everyone can adapt to their own concerns; a simple and original illuminating tool. 

February 9-25 - PyeongChang, South Korea: The Winter Olympic Games
As we already mentioned in the ‘up and down trends’ of last month, the only interesting thing to anticipate around these Winter Olympic Games is the rapprochement between North and South Korea. Contrary to what some in the media are trying to make us believe, South Korea has invited North Korea to take part in these Games. It has also chosen a strategic location in the middle of the whole Korean Peninsula and in a city with a name very similar to that of the North Korean capital (PyongYang/PyongChang)... (Read full report - GEAB 112)

March 23 - Russia: Presidential election
The most dangerous enemy, Navalny, has been eliminated and is now fighting for a boycott of the elections. Eight candidates are in the running in this coming election, presenting a diverse political class (communists, nationalists, liberals..) that is still very artificial. One of the candidates, Ksenia Sobchak, is the subject of much media attention, Russian as well as American. She has no chance of winning, but says this is not her goal. She prefers to position herself to modestly obtain a seat in the Duma in the upcoming parliamentary elections of 2021 and advocates smooth change. She is the daughter of the former mayor of St. Petersburg, who was a supporter of Putin - who originates from St. Petersburg himself... (Read full report - GEAB 112)

 

Mr Catastrophe - GEAB, a series of brief alerts
In this short column, we are discussing, in the form of brief alerts, several risks that our bulletin cannot develop further, but concerning which we want, nevertheless, to warn our readers.​ 

Syria once again
The American camp seemed to be failing for some time, leaving the way open to the Russian camp to calm the situation. But now it is reorganised, surrounded by countries whose interests it was already representing. All the great proxy-players of the Syrian war are now revealed: on one side, the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kurdistan; and on the other: Russia, Iran, Turkey, Palestine. Under the cover of a common war against the ISIS, these enemies are now gathering on the same ground, especially around the oil wells (ISIS, legitimate Syrian forces, Americans, Russians...). Israel will not abandon the camp either; it will never accept a regime favourable to Iran completing the Shiite Iran-Mediterranean Sea corridor on their northern border...(Read full report - GEAB 112) 

South America tilting over
This year's South American electoral calendar is jam-packed and the tilting towards the right wing is a dominant trend. But there are places of resistance with a Bolivarian spirit, even considerable ones: Venezuela is holding on and could be joined by Mexico soon. Right or left leaning, hard nationalist political regimes are being put into power everywhere. The desperate corruption associated with the oil price crisis has severely affected the American sub-continent, as well as the emergence of a new generation with very different aspirations compared to those of their elders. This creates polarising axes throughout the   region. The madness brought on by the economic forces and their belief that only the right-wing harmonisation of South America could allow its integration, is degenerating... (Read full report - GEAB 112)

The BRICS disappear in the quicksands
The recent resignation of South African President Jacob Zuma has a lot to do with a modern social, political, and institutional crisis, but also with his choice to join the BRICS . His replacement, Cyril Ramaphosa, could show much less enthusiasm for South Africa's participation in BRICS bodies and agendas. However, we do not anticipate an exit from South Africa. To block the BRICS' dynamics, it is even more effective to keep countries with little motivation inside. Between Brazil, India and now South Africa, the BRICS countries are indeed losing their way... which is not good news... (Read full report - GEAB 112)

The Environment: a crisis of refinition
In the West, the environmental agendas are preparing, according to our team, for serious setbacks. Here are some of the reasons leading us to this conclusion: The discrediting of some ecological movements due to their perceived NIMBY (Not in My Back-Yard) attitude: after fighting for waste recycling plants, for example, they fight for these factories not to be installed in their own neighbourhood. The US withdrawal from the environmental agenda: even if this is good news in the medium term, because the USA was rather a blocking player than voluntary participant, this withdrawal puts on hold some aspects of the implementation of the calendar...(Read full report - GEAB 112)

 

Investments, trends and recommendations
 

Oil: Bottom down
The US announcements of oil production effect (we moved overnight from the ‘explosion of production’ to ‘less than expected production’ ) have resulted in a yo-yo price, which is fluctuating now around $60 a barrel. This is a policy which probably reflects the tension between divergent US interests: on the one hand, those who need a high price to speculate or invest in their drilling (including shale oil/gas producers who rush into the investments brought by Donald Trump's tax measures) and those who prefer a weak rate to be able to feed a theoretically booming economy, but without financial means. For speculators, quick profit-taking is at your fingertips, but watch out... (Read full report - GEAB 112)

 

Businesses: beware of bankruptcies galore
As announced by our team, 2018 is a dangerous year. And do not think that bankruptcies are reserved for retail business only. They will affect all sectors. From mass distribution to arms sales, the major groups are restructuring. For example, the construction industry with Carillion in Great Britain, the arming industry with Remington in the US (which filed for bankruptcy), energy companies with Philadelphia Energy Solutions (the biggest oil refinery on the US East Coast) and Westinghouse Electric (the US nuclear subsidiary of Toshiba), airlines with Air Berlin (costing Berlin 200 million euros)... (Read full report - GEAB 112)

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency: everything is under control
We wonder if talking about bitcoin once more this month was really useful. After the vertiginous peaks that this cryptocurrency reached, we witnessed its equally vertiginous fall. During January only, reports mentioned 44.2 billion losses in a market worth $200 billion. We continue to believe major players manipulated the prices upwards to achieve very quick high profits on the backs of the naive...(Read full report - GEAB 112)