miércoles, 11 de noviembre de 2015

2015/10/28 LEAP/E2020 Press Review on the Global Systemic Crisis

The Great Systemic Transformation of the West.
In the 1990s, US foreign policy was part of a project to dominate Eurasia, through the final weakening of Russia and the preparation of a Cold War type confrontation with China. Zbigniew Brzezinski summarized the US elite's global vision in The Grand Chessboard published in 1997. 15 years later, George Friedman lays out a more modest ambition, adapted to US power's relative decline: rework the British policy of "balance of power" : in each region of the world, ensuring that there is a balance of forces without any hegemonic power or any coalition of anti-American forces developing there. Friedman threw a clear light on the context which prevailed at the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis: the US must, at any price, prevent the rapprochement between Germany and Russia because an EU-Russian alliance would be able to resist US economic pressures. Similarly, Friedman explained, in the Middle East, it was indispensable to bring about a balance between Turkey, Iran, Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia [...] Friedman's vision is explicitly addressed to a US president who, according to him, must have the qualities of a Lincoln, a Roosevelt or a Reagan – that's to say the ability to... (Log in or subscribe to read more in the GEAB 95)  Abstract of the GEAB 95 by LEAP
Weak oil prices deplete Russia's sovereign-wealth fund.
Russia is running out of emergency funds. The country, which has been relying on its sovereign-wealth fund to plug gaps in its budget deficit, said its Reserve Fund is likely to be depleted in 2016. The news is another blow to an economy reeling from weak oil prices and Western-led sanctions in connection with fighting in Ukraine... 
Market Watch
Systemic oil crisis and finance - the Derivatives.
Most US oil producers are hedged or insured against a lower oil price. A lower oil price means somebody else, the counterparty to this hedge, has to pay for the losses. With an extreme price drop and the persistent belief that oil only can go up, like we saw in the real-estate bubble, some, as yet unknown, counterparties will find themselves in the position of being liable for extreme losses. Oil is always hedged with so-called derivatives. Oil derivatives are financial products that are linked to the oil price, the buyer of the derivative can make money whether the oil price rises or falls, depending on the position (long or short – betting on a rise or fall in price) that the buyer has taken. Most of these products have a leverage mechanism, if the oil price goes up $1 these products go up $2 or more...   Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB 90)
Fossil fuel companies risk plague of 'asbestos' lawsuits as tide turns on climate change.
Oil, gas and coal companies face the mounting risk of legal damages for alleged climate abuse as global leaders signal an end to business-as-usual and draw up sweeping plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions, Bank of America has warned...  The Telegraph
Iran to be invited to participate in Syria talks – US
Iran is going to be invited to participate in multilateral talks about the conflict in Syria which will take place in Vienna, the US State Department said. It will be the first such US invitation extended to Iran since the eruption of the Syrian war in 2011...  RT.com
David Cameron to issue warning about prospect of Britain leaving the EU.
The Prime Minister will for the first time directly address the alternative options to Britain remaining in the EU during a trip to Iceland and warn that there would be negative consequence for the UK...  The Telegraph
UK economic growth slows to 0.5% in third quarter.
The UK economy's growth slowed in the third quarter of the year, weighed down by the performance of the construction and manufacturing sectors. Gross domestic product grew by 0.5% between July and September, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, down from 0.7% in the second quarter...  BBC
Bundestag president Lammert demands TTIP transparency.
The president of German parliament has called for more transparency in the transatlantic trade negotiations. As it stands, Norbert Lammert cannot picture the Bundestag passing the EU trade pact with the USA. Deutsche Welle
Turkey Opposition Preps for Power Share With Party It Abhors.
To opposition deputy chief Selin Sayek-Boke, Turkey's current leaders run a "vulgar, oppressive, statist economy" that isn't transparent about spending, fails to follow through on promised reforms and imposes the wrong kind of taxes...  Bloomberg
Merkel`s China visit aimed at bolstering trade ties.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to embark on a three-day trip to China in a bid to enhance bilateral trade ties and mutual trust. DW examines the state of economic and political relations between the two nations...  Deutsche Welle
Government's welfare reforms blocked by peers.
Chancellor George Osborne's flagship welfare reforms were blocked by parliament's unelected upper chamber on Monday, dealing a blow to the Conservative government and setting the stage for a bitter constitutional conflict...  Reuters
Debt limit, budget deals take shape in US Congress
US House Speaker John Boehner and other congressional leaders raced to finalize a sweeping two-year budget deal and an extension of the federal debt ceiling until March 2017 before Boehner transfers power to his expected successor, Paul Ryan...  China Daily
Palestinian leader warns EU that violence could escalate
Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has said violence could get worse unless Israel protects Muslim rights and resumes peace talks. Speaking to media in the EU capital on Monday (26 October), he described the situation as "extremely serious and grave", adding "it may even deteriorate, and this is my fear"...  EUObserver
India, Africa cannot be excluded from UN Security Council: Sushma Swaraj
Making a fervant pitch for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council, India on Tuesday said it along with Africa comprising nearly 2.5 billion people "can no longer be excluded from their rightful place" in the world body...  Economic Times
South Africa's Constitution for Third Term
South Africa shouldn't change its constitution to enable a sitting president to stand for a third term in office, President Jacob Zuma said. "We are very clear about the two terms," he said in an interview at his residence in the capital, Pretoria, on Tuesday. "The issue does not arise at all. I think it is very healthy for us here in South Africa that we don't stay forever...  Bloomberg
This special Press Review reviews articles from the French and Engligh-speaking international online media relating to the unfolding global crisis.
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