2016/12/20 Political Anticipation - A LEAP Press review (GEAB special)

GEAB registration invite + Christmas Gift Pack
Allow us to spoil you in this eleventh year of the GEAB with additional ingredients for your understanding of the world and the future: a bouquet of E-books; a virtual one-to-one online meeting with Marie-Hélène Caillol, the Editor in Chief (Jan. 20, 2017); the US Elections Special File Supplement; one extra GEAB subscription, a free 1-year subscription for one of your friends...
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Demon-etisation: India opens with a fanfare the ball of the fiscal QEs
Since November 8, 2016, India has created a monetary revolution of a magnitude never seen, both by the size of the population concerned and the depth of the transformation induced. By demonetising the biggest notes of 500 and 1000 Rs (rupees), the Indian government is trying to reintegrate into the official economy the state's gigantic parallel (or black or more simply the archaic) economy. In a nation where 90% of the transactions are made in cash, a huge part of the financial activity escapes the knowledge of the central government, and therefore statistics, taxes... (GEAB 110 / Dec. 2016 - Read the Public Announcement )

Chinese debt, global debts, interest rates: the insolvent countries no longer have friends
As we have already discussed and explained before, the crisis is now taking a more geopolitical form. Does this mean that the economic-financial crisis is over? No one will accuse us of having pretended that. If need be, we can confirm that the crisis is always there, always vivid, and it is in perfect shape after more than eight years of existence, thank you very much. One of the best signs of this is the employment rate in Western countries; but also the difficulties experienced ... (GEAB 110 / Dec. 2016 - Perspectives)

African Union: One road, One continent, One currency. The end of the CFA franc
Africa! The second largest continent in the world after Asia, both in size and population, and also one of the poorest is shaken by internal conflicts and wars. But above all, it’s a continent with one of the youngest age pyramids in the world; so many opportunities open for the future and for hope in this region which will experience great challenges of development, modernity and opening-up in the coming decades... (GEAB 110 / Dec. 2016 - Telescope)

An evaluation of our anticipations for 2016 (drawn from GEAB n° 101 of January 2016): 75% success
Each year in December, we evaluate our trend anticipations made in January. This month, we come across a final score of 25.5 out of 34, meaning a 75% success rate; two points more than last year. The year 2014 and the great turmoil caused by the Euro-Russian shock that drove us below the 70% success at that time, seems to be reconciled with... (GEAB 110 / Dec. 2016 - Focus)

Investments, trends and recommendations
Alert on Gold: state loot! We continue to advise the utmost caution with regard to gold. This raw material is currently and literally being hoovered up by states, especially emerging ones. And their project is to settle down their own currencies, integrate these "nest eggs" into large investment dynamics and put a halt to speculation. In particular, on the horizon of 2017, we see gigantic operations for the recovery of Indian private gold. In a country where housewives hold 11% of the world's gold reserves... (GEAB 110 / Dec. 2016 - Investments)

Electoral college formally elects Donald Trump as president
The denouement of the 2016 election came on Monday, as electors in all 50 states and the District of Columbia formally elected Donald Trump as president of the United States. An effort by anti-Trump activists, who had urged electors to back efforts led by celebrities and academics to cast their ballots at variance with election results to keep Trump from reaching the necessary 270 electoral votes, came to practically nothing... (The Guardian)

Turkey shooting: Russian ambassador assassinated in Ankara art gallery
The violence of Syria’s bloody civil war has had a shocking repercussion beyond its borders with the assassination of Russia’s ambassador to Turkey in Ankara in what appeared to be revenge for his country’s part in the assault on Aleppo. Andrey Karlov was killed at an art gallery in Ankara by a gunman who shot him eight times at close range... (The Independent)

Brexit poll: Six months on, Brits stand by EU referendum decision
British voters would repeat their decision to leave the European Union if the "Brexit" referendum were held today, according to a new CNN/ComRes poll released Monday. Six months after the UK delivered a result that shocked much of the world, 47% of British adults say they would vote Leave, with 45% saying they would choose to Remain, even though nearly half of them expect the decision to hurt them financially... (CNN)

Diplomat murder is provocation, say Russia and Turkey
Russia and Turkey both sought to limit the diplomatic fallout after Russia's envoy to Ankara was shot dead on Monday (19 December).
 Russian president Vladimir Putin said the killing of ambassador Andrei Karlov at an exhibition opening was "clearly a provocation". He said in a statement that the act was "aimed at undermining the improvement and normalisation of Russian-Turkish relations, as well as undermining the peace process in Syria promoted by Russia, Turkey, Iran and other countries interested in settling the conflict in Syria"... (EUObserver)

UN votes to deploy observers in Aleppo
With Russia’s backing, the Security Council on Monday voted to quickly deploy UN observers to Aleppo to monitor evacuations and report on the fate of civilians who remain in the besieged Syrian city. The council unanimously adopted a French-drafted resolution that marks the first show of unity in months among world powers on the issue. (The Hindu)

NATO, EU talks overshadowed by Russian tragedy
After talks in Brussels, both NATO and the EU have offered condolences to Moscow on the news of the murder of the Russian ambassador in Ankara. Teri Schultz reports from Brussels. Just hours after NATO and Russia wrapped up a "frank" meeting at NATO headquarters and the European Union formally extended sanctions on the Kremlin, both organizations rushed to offer condolences to Moscow on the shocking news that the Russian ambassador to Turkey had been murdered at an art exhibit in Ankara... (Deutsche Welle)

Speaking the truth in the post-truth era
Post-truth is the new reality we need all to deal with if we want to save the soul of democracy and its noble mission. The electoral landscape in many democratic countries around the world witnesses the rise of a new political culture based on emotions and fear, instead of facts and policy. The situation is not too new, but continuous economic and social setbacks, especially the rise of unemployment and poverty, since 2008... (Al Jazeera)

Another lesson for Trump in handling Sino-US ties
"China steals United States Navy research drone in international waters－rips it out of water and takes it to China in unpresidented act," Donald Trump tweeted on Saturday. The post went viral thanks mostly to the obvious misspelling. But what is truly amazing about this tweet, was the soon-to-be US president completely misrepresented what had actually happened－that is more dangerous than funny... (China Daily)

Let refugees help the EU

To solve the Syrian refugee crisis the EU will have to take a leadership role and work effectively with refugee and diaspora communities who can serve as agents of change. Over the past six years, five million Syrians have been forced to become refugees. The number of first-time asylum applicants in Europe increased from 563,000 in 2014 to almost 1.26 million in 2015. With the continuing brutal onslaught on Aleppo, the Assad regime has made clear it is willing to target civilians to achieve its goals... (EUObserver)

2016/11/29 Political Anticipation - A LEAP Press review

Ingredients for a Prepared Mind, to be delivered
(A Foodforthought Gift Pack)
We are opening the GEAB's Winter Loyalty Campaign, with premium subscriptions to our bulletin, accompanied by special gifts, for a limited number of members... and you are the first in line!
Here is your sneak peek :
- A bouquet of e-books, graciously offered by Anticipolis.
- A one-to-one Virtual Meeting with Marie-Helene Caillol, the GEAB's Editor in chief (a Q&A Session planned on Jan. 20th).
- The GEAB's US Special Report (a compilation of GEAB notes on the extremely controversial event).
- GEAB, the Intelligent Gift (surprise a friend with a one-year free subscription, an ingenuous Christmas gift he/she will remember every month when receiving the bulletin).
- Signed copies of the Manual of Political Anticipation (thirty books will be delivered to randomly chosen subscribers; author's signature and dedicated message included)

Keep your mind prepared for the future with our anticipation tools.
(GEAB Subscription + Gift Pack)

Franck Biancheri enters the Museum of History of Stuttgart
The House of History (Haus der Geschichte), the museum of history of Baden-Württemberg in Stuttgart, recently opened a new permanent exhibition called „Haus Europa“ (House Europe). This permanent exhibition deals with the following themes: Slaughterhouse Europe, Euro-Visions, the Europe of Monarchs, Politicians and technocrats, Europe as Common Market and Europe of the Citizens... (AAFB)

Saudis Said to Quit Russia Talks as OPEC Deal No Closer
Saudi Arabia pulled out of planned talks with non-OPEC nations including Russia as disagreements about how to share the burden of supply cuts stood in the way of a deal to boost prices just days before a make-or-break meeting in Vienna. OPEC officials were scheduled to meet with non-members including Russia on Monday before a ministerial meeting in Vienna two days later... (Bloomberg)

Canada at risk of sinking in Trump’s political tsunami
When economic waves come out of Washington, they rock Canada. Now, with the Donald Trump tsunami heading towards the White House, Canadians feartheir already floundering economy could be sunk. Pundits and politicians are already predicting the death of trade agreements between the two neighbours which, until recently, when China edged out Canada, ranked as each other’s top trading partners... (Aljazeera)

Greek Debt Relief Plan Said to Entail $35 Billion Bank Bond Swap
Greece’s battered banks are being asked to swap about 33 billion ($35 billion) euros in floating-rate bonds for 30-year, fixed-rate securities under a euro-area plan to shield Athens from future interest rate increases, three people with knowledge of the matter said. The swap is part of a package of debt-relief proposals for Greece to be presented at a Dec. 5 meeting of euro-area finance ministers... (Bloomberg)

Airbus calls for end of legal battles with Boeing
Airbus has called for a global agreement on subsidies for the aircraft industry, after the World Trade Organisation (WTO) ruled that Boeing benefited from illegal US tax breaks. In the case brought by the EU against the US, a WTO panel ruled that Boeing had benefited from illegal tax breaks facilitating the development of its new B777X jets... (EUobserver)

China’s experience to help Germany host G20 summit
China and Germany have vowed to work closely to ensure next year’s G20 leaders summit in Hamburg is as successful as the fruitful meeting hosted by China in Hangzhou in September. Such commitments were expressed during a meeting between Vice-Premier Liu Yandong and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday... (China Daily)

More choices makes us happier !
Ladies and gentlemen, we have started our descent. From now until closing time on Christmas Eve, we are destined to fall towards an existential abyss. Some of us are fated to experience an unpleasant altercation with another shopper on Black Friday over the last discounted PS4 in a warehouse on the North Circular... (The Guardian)

Young, gifted and held back
In the world of “The Hunger Games” youngsters are forced to fight to the death for the amusement of their white-haired rulers. Today’s teen fiction is relentlessly dystopian, but the gap between fantasy and reality is often narrower than you might think. The older generation may not resort to outright murder but, as our special report this week on millennials describes (see article), in important ways they hold their juniors down... (The Economist)

A global business thriving on people’s love for art
Top auctioneer says Chinese collectors playing a pivotal role in future market. Jussi Pylkkanen thinks himself more of an aficionado and part of the cultural landscape – that connects museums, foundations and art dealers from the four corners of the earth – than the president of Christie’s, one of the two biggest international auction houses... (China Daily)

A brief history of war and drugs: From Vikings to Nazis
Adolf Hitler was a junkie and the Nazis’ narcotics intake gives new meaning to the term ‘war on drugs’. But they weren’t the only ones. Recent publications have revealed that narcotics are as much a part of conflict as bullets; often defining wars rather than sitting anecdotally on the sidelines of them. In his book Blitzed, German author Norman Ohler describes how the Third Reich was permeated with drugs, including cocaine, heroin and most notably crystal meth... (AlJazeera)

Brexit, Trump, populism: The “post-truth”, its accomplices and its antidote
It could be said that we’re all accomplices of the so-called “post-truth”, although not to the same extent. But, what is the post-truth? The post-truth refers to circumstances in which emotions and personal beliefs are more determining when shaping public opinion than objective facts... (AAFB - José María Compagni Morales)

Euro chief Dijsselbloem sees London losing EU finance dominance
The European Union cannot let London remain the main financial center for the euro zone after Brexit if Britain does not want to be bound by EU financial rules, Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Tuesday. The Dutch finance minister told a European Parliament committee he did not expect Britain to accept being bound by EU rules after leaving the bloc... (Reuters)

Singapore tops global education rankings
Singapore has the highest-achieving primary and secondary pupils in international education tests in maths and science. But primary school pupils in Northern Ireland were ranked sixth at maths, the highest of any in Europe. England's performance has not advanced since tests four years ago... (BBC)

South Korea's Park asks parliament to decide how she can quit, opposition cries foul
South Korean President Park Geun-hye on Tuesday asked parliament to decide how and when she can give up power over an influence-peddling scandal, taking the country's political crisis deeper into uncharted terrain. The main opposition Democratic Party rejected Park's offer, calling it a ploy to escape being impeached... (Reuters)