lunes, 9 de enero de 2017

2017/01/05 Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

Marie-Hélène Caillol: “They destroyed the EU” (interview by La Vanguardia, 30/12/2016)
The current crisis of the EU is multiple; the integration of the Eastern countries was rather a failure. In the Southern Europe, the “magic” of the European dream has also disappeared; the EU no longer means “democracy and prosperity”, but the opposite: austerity and imposition. The Franco-German couple is, unofficially, getting a divorce. We also need to face the Brexit, the Italian referendum… whilst in the north, we dream of a “Kerneuropa” (a Lutheran matrix European hard core without the Southern states) … So we’ve reached an unprecedented situation... (Read the entire interview)

GEAB registration invite + Gift Box
Allow us to spoil you in this eleventh year of the GEAB with additional ingredients for your understanding of the world and the future: a bouquet of E-books; a virtual one-to-one online meeting with Marie-Hélène Caillol, the Editor in Chief (Jan. 20, 2017); the US Elections Special File Supplement; one extra GEAB subscription free for a friend, and many more... This Gift Pack is available for all GEAB subscriptions and renewals paid between December 1, 2016 – February 1, 2017. (Subscribe to the GEAB and get the Gift Box now)

Demon-etisation: India opens with a fanfare the ball of the fiscal QEs
Since November 8, 2016, India has created a monetary revolution of a magnitude never seen, both by the size of the population concerned and the depth of the transformation induced. By demonetising the biggest notes of 500 and 1000 Rs (rupees), the Indian government is trying to reintegrate into the official economy the state's gigantic parallel (or black or more simply the archaic) economy. In a nation where 90% of the transactions are made in cash, a huge part of the financial activity escapes the knowledge of the central government, and therefore statistics, taxes... (GEAB 110 / Dec. 2016 - Read the Public Announcement)

Chinese debt, global debts, interest rates: the insolvent countries no longer have friends
As we have already discussed and explained before, the crisis is now taking a more geopolitical form. Does this mean that the economic-financial crisis is over? No one will accuse us of having pretended that. If need be, we can confirm that the crisis is always there, always vivid, and it is in perfect shape after more than eight years of existence, thank you very much. One of the best signs of this is the employment rate in Western countries; but also the difficulties experienced ... (GEAB 110 / Dec. 2016 - Perspectives)

African Union: One road, One continent, One currency. The end of the CFA franc
Africa! The second largest continent in the world after Asia, both in size and population, and also one of the poorest is shaken by internal conflicts and wars. But above all, it’s a continent with one of the youngest age pyramids in the world; so many opportunities open for the future and for hope in this region which will experience great challenges of development, modernity and opening-up in the coming decades... (GEAB 110 / Dec. 2016 - Telescope)

An evaluation of our anticipations for 2016 (drawn from GEAB n° 101 of January 2016): 75% success
Each year in December, we evaluate our trend anticipations made in January. This month, we come across a final score of 25.5 out of 34, meaning a 75% success rate; two points more than last year. The year 2014 and the great turmoil caused by the Euro-Russian shock that drove us below the 70% success at that time, seems to be reconciled with... (GEAB 110 / Dec. 2016 - Focus)

Investments, trends and recommendations
We have often repeated that the dollar-centred financial system is still the international standard, but that there are now superimposed new systems based on other currencies and centred in other regions of the world, which are international as well, such as: Islamic finance and sukuks; yuan's financial exchanging network; the eurozone; the beginning of a ruble system around the financial centre of St. Petersburg, the baikalbonds, Urals oil,…; emergence of an African monetary-financial system (to be monitored closely); the possible revival of a sterling system around a United Kingdom making the logical monetary choice of the Commonwealth rather than the euro... (GEAB 110 / Dec. 2016 - Investments)

11 Surprising Predictions for 2017 From Some of The Biggest Names In Science
What scientific discoveries will 2017 bring? What technological innovations? Probably not time travel — or time-shares on Mars. But no one really knows for sure, and when we asked some of the biggest names in in science and technology to share their predictions for the coming year, there was a bit of pushback. “I normally don’t make predictions for anything less than two trillion years in the future,” Arizona State University cosmologist Lawrence Krauss told NBC MACH. It’s easier to make predictions that far out, he added jokingly, when “no one will be around to check them... (NBCNews)

Dollar retreats from 14-year high after FOMC minutes
The U.S. dollar fell on Wednesday, pulling back from a 14-year high following the release of commentary from the Federal Reserve. While the dollar had already been weaker against its major rivals, it extended its decline following the release of minutes from the Fed’s December meeting, with a key currency index dropping to its lows of the session... (MarketWatch)

Why German Banks Took Stand Against Basel Capital Floors
No wonder Germany is on the warpath against a proposed global standard for how banks calculate the capital they need: Its largest lenders rank among the worst when it comes to how they assess risk. That means Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG will be affected more than most big lenders and may have to raise additional capital, if and when the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision implements a proposed floor for how much their risk-weighting of assets can veer from standardized measures... (Bloomberg)

U.S. banks gear up to fight Dodd-Frank Act’s Volcker rule
Big U.S. banks are set on getting Congress this year to loosen or eliminate the Volcker rule against using depositors’ funds for speculative bets on the bank’s own account, a test case of whether Wall Street can flex its muscle in Washington again. In interviews over the past several weeks, half a dozen industry lobbyists said they began meeting... (Reuters)

Ambassador to EU quits and warns staff over ‘muddled thinking’
Britain’s ambassador to the European Union Sir Ivan Rogers dealt a blow to the UK’s Brexit negotiations by quitting and urging his fellow British civil servants in Brussels to assert their independence by challenging “ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking”... (The Guardian)

Indonesia suspends military cooperation with Australia
Indonesia has suspended all military cooperation with Australia, reportedly over offensive materials displayed at an Australian military base where its troops were training. The offensive “laminated material” shown at a base was insulting towards Indonesia’s five founding principles – Pancasila – Indonesian newspaper Kompas has reported. The Kompas report says a cable dated 29 December, sent by Indonesian military commander General Gatot Nurmantyo, instructed that all military cooperation, including training with the Australian defence force, be suspended. (The Guardian)

56 killed, many beheaded, in grisly Brazil prison riot
Bodies butchered, decapitated and burned after clashes between rival drug gangs at a prison complex in Amazonas state. A prison riot in the Brazilian Amazon has left at least 56 people dead with some bodies decapitated and burned, officials said. The riot erupted on Sunday afternoon and lasted for 17 hours in the Anisio Jobim Penitentiary Complex (Compaj) in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state. The rioters took 12 guards hostage and a still unconfirmed number of prisoners escaped... (AlJazeera)

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