miércoles, 8 de marzo de 2017

2017-03-06 Political Anticipation - A LEAP Press review

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The key element of the German election
The future of European governance will largely depend on the current electoral cycle of the euro zone. If Martin Schulz, the SPD candidate, succeeds in imposing himself in Germany, his very great European experience is likely to bring about a change of position in Berlin, which could evolve towards a more co-operative vision, in line with the project outlined after Brexit by the French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault and his German counterpart, Frank-Walter Steinmeier . But if Angela Merkel remains in the Chancellery, the movement will continue. The apogee could be reached when Mario Draghi's successor will be appointed in November 2019. The name of Jens Weidmann, the current governor of the Bundesbank, is mentioned. This hypothesis would strongly suggest the end of the ECB's independence (Read more in the last GEAB)

Yellen Hints at More Aggressive Rate Path Upon Locking in March
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen left little doubt on Friday that the central bank will raise interest rates this month. More importantly, she dropped hints that it might end up having to increase them this year more than planned. In a speech to The Executives’ Club of Chicago, Yellen singled out the danger of the central bank being too slow in boosting rates... (Bloomberg)

Look through an investor's lens, Europe!
On February 14 the Polish government bet on investments, launching the Responsible Development Plan, an ambitious new strategy It aims to raise the investment rate to 20-25 percent of GDP by 2020 and keep it at 25 percent by 2030. We aim to achieve this external and internal sources of funding. The European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) and particularly the cohesion policy funds will play an important role in the implementation of our aims... (EUObserver)

Peugeot-Citroen strikes deal with GM to buy Vauxhall-Opel
The French company that owns Peugeot and Citroen has struck a deal to buy General Motors’ (GM) European unit, including the Opel and Vauxhall brands. PSA is on its way to becoming Europe’s second-largest carmaker. Ahead of a press conference in Paris on Monday, French carmaker PSA announced the acquisition of General Motors’ (GM) European subsidiary, which includes the Opel and Vauxhall brands, for 1.3 billion euros ($1.38 billion). (Deutsche Welle)

UK must obey free movement laws till Brexit, say MEPs
Until the UK leaves the EU, it will have to obey EU laws on free movement, said a majority of MEPs in a plenary debate with the European Commission on Wednesday. The Parliament called on the Commission to ensure that the free movement rights of EU citizens living in the UK are respected, they added. Many speakers also made clear their dislike of the use of EU citizens as "bargaining chips" in the Brexit negotiations... (EUBusiness)

Globalisation’s not dead, it just has a new powerhouse – Asia
The so-called anti-globalisation wave has become one of the most popular themes for panel discussions, articles, television programmes and the like. Don’t take it too seriously. Globalisation cannot be stopped. No matter what particular political leaders say and anti-immigration proponents take to the streets to demand, interdependence is growing. The volumes of goods, services and capital crossing borders continue to increase, and so do the numbers of people working outside their home countries. (SCMP)

US Isolation. When global finance turns away from the dollar system, it means the cliff is near
The United States has been voluntarily isolating itself from the rest of the world, and not just from a geopolitical point of view. This terrible isolation can only get worse, whatever the result of the presidential election: if Trump wins, it will be due to a lack of foreign policy; in the case of Clinton, her iron-fist will have a word. Another domain, namely finance, which has so far been spared, is being added to this political dimension; something which has always been at the centre of America’s power in the world. No wonder this happens at the very moment the US can no longer hold itself... (Read more in the GEAB 108)

Is anti-Semitism truly on the rise in the U.S.? It’s not so clear.
It’s been a bad 2017 for Jews. During the month of January, 48 bomb threats were called in to Jewish community centers across the country. Also last month, a neo-Nazi made national news by promising to hold a march in Whitefish, Mont., to intimidate the town’s small Jewish population. It was thus unsurprising that two reporters were moved to ask President Trump at Thursday’s news conference about a rise in anti-Semitism — and that many of us were aghast at Trump’s rude dismissal of the first reporter, an Orthodox Jew, and Trump’s unwillingness to take the question seriously... (The Washington Post)

Seoul should stop dancing to wrong tune of THAAD
The Republic of Korea’s defense ministry signed a land swap deal with Lotte Group on Tuesday to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system in the country, which China and Russia believe will further compromise regional security. Reports say THAAD could be installed as early as June, before the ROK elects a new president. That THAAD’s deployment will escalate tensions on the already tense Korean Peninsula is a foregone conclusion... (China Daily)

Erdogan says Yucel was a PKK plant with German support
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has accused an arrested newspaper reporter of being a “German agent.” Multiple German cities have banned rallies of support for Erdogan’s presidential referendum. As the spat between Ankara and Berlin becomes increasingly angry, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called Deniz Yucel, a Die Welt reporter with dual nationality, a “German agent” and a member of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)... (Deutsche Welle)

Former journalist Juan Thompson arrested on suspicion of threatening Jewish centers
A former journalist has been arrested in relation to threats to Jewish centers across the US. There have been more than 100 bomb threats against US Jewish organizations since the start of the year. A former journalist was arrested in St. Louis by the Federal Bureau of Investigation Friday over bomb threats to Jewish organizations across the US in an attempt to frame an ex-girlfriend... (Deutsche Welle)

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