lunes, 22 de mayo de 2017

2017/05/22 - Political Anticipation - A LEAP Press review (GEAB special)

The Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (May 2017) is now available!

Economics: Good news will be pouring! The French presidential election at the heart of a European takeover of the media narrative

The voice of France in the world seemed to have disappeared (at least since 2007), which is a far cry from the brilliance of French diplomacy in 2003 when the country opposed the war in Iraq. And yet, just when we think that the influence of this country was dead and buried, the French presidential election of 2017 gets international attention rarely equalled; a sign that the insignificant France is perhaps not so insignificant when it runs the risk of electing a far-right president into the heart of Europe. But the verdict has fallen and the world can now breathe again... (Read the public announcement  of the GEAB 115 free of charge)

Emmanuel Macron: The compatible candidate
The French presidential campaign of 2017 saw a truly historic moment with the televised debate between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. The debate revealed two main things: the emptiness of the one’s manifesto on one side and the unexpected density of the character (and programme) of the other on the other side. Our team anticipates that Marine Le Pen will not recover from this debate, nor probably her party, the National Front. The departure of the niece of the Le Pen family is a first confirmation of this anticipation... (GEAB 115 / Subscribe to read more)

French Elections: Implications for the euro and for Europe
If Merkel remains in power, it is doubtful whether the French president will manage to impose his wish to redistribute wealth within the euro area . Similarly, with Mr Macron, the prospects for a reform of the euro as we described it last month are receding. In reality, the question is less the content of the reform than the policy required to implement it. "Everything is politics" as the protestors of May 68 used to say... (GEAB 115 / Subscribe to read more)

Calendar of Future Events: May / September 2017
September 11 - Hong Kong: Belt and Road Summit. In search of an additional funding of US $113 billion, the pharaonic infrastructure project along China's One Belt One Road (OBOR) is building its ambitions. On May 14th, in Beijing, the first summit of the Silk Road was held, bringing together the leaders of 28 countries, including Russia, Turkey and Pakistan, on an agenda of interconnection, cooperation and multisectoral exchange. On the EU's side, only the Italian Prime Minister dared to travel there, as well as Christine Lagarde from the IMF. On September 11, another economic summit will take place in Hong Kong... (GEAB 115 / Subscribe to read more)

The rupture of Western information systems: How to survive "informationally" speaking?
Since the Second World War, the moral domination of the West over the rest of the world has been largely based on the undeniable quality of its media, guarantors of representative information of world realities and public debates concerning them. This is not to idealise a system of course far from perfect, but to remember that it was nevertheless the best available on a global scale in the last few decades. It is on this open information system that the "free (and much simpler) world" has supported its democratic mechanisms in a satisfactory manner... (GEAB 115 / Subscribe to read more)

Investments, trends and recommendations
Oil – It’s working. In spite of many interests that obviously want to minimise the impact of the agreement on oil production between OPEC and its allies, and doubts related to the sustainability of the deal, it seems that Russians and Saudis are planning to extend the Vienna Agreement until - at least - the end of this year. The tug-of-war between the North American shale industry and the oil-producing nations is, according to us, less of an arm wrestling contest, than a trap. Shale producers are also negatively impacted by decreasing prices generated by their overproduction... (GEAB 115 / Subscribe to read more)

UK blocks blueprint for EU military HQ
The UK has blocked legal preparations for an EU military headquarters in the run-up to Brexit and national elections. Boris Johnson, its foreign minister, took the step at a meeting in Brussels on Monday (15 May) citing disagreements over “language”. “There’s a discussion still going on about some of the language there”, he said. “If they want to come together [on joint defence plans] … then, you know, we’re not going to stand in their way... (EUObserver)

Alternative facts challenge journalists to rethink role
Over the past year, false news has vigorously spread across social media platforms. In some instances, national authorities have even accused state actors of weaponizing disinformation in a bid to undermine democratic processes. "Whether the content is fake or not, there is no clear dividing line between fake news and bad journalism," said Edward Lucas, a senior editor at the British news magazine The Economist... (Deutsche Welle)

Austria heading for snap elections
The slender 30-year-old foreign minister, Sebastian Kurz, announced at a brief press conference on Sunday evening (14 May) that he had taken over the leadership of the Austrian People’s Party (OeVP), and was committed to snap elections in the autumn. After this, the prospect of a return to government for the far-right Freedom Party (FPOe) moved a concrete step closer... (EUObserver)

Saudis, Russia Favor Extending Oil Cuts Until End-March 2018
Saudi Arabia and Russia said they favor prolonging oil-output cuts by global producers through the end of the first quarter of 2018, setting a firmer timeframe for a likely extension of the curbs into next year. Crude prices jumped. Extending the curbs at already agreed-upon volumes is needed to reach the goal of reducing global inventories to the 5-year average, the energy ministers of the world’s biggest oil producers said in a joint press conference in Beijing... (Bloomberg)

China's Silk Road project: A trap or an opportunity?
"As the water shapes itself to the vessel that contains it, so a wise man adapts himself to circumstances," Chinese philosopher Confucius once advised. As the West, led by no less than the United States, succumbs to bouts of protectionism, China (the world's largest trading nation) has found itself in a precarious situation... (Aljazeera)

With trillions of US dollars on the line, Hong Kong and London bid to become finance hub of China’s global trade strategy
Hong Kong and London have locked horns at a two-day high-level forum in Beijing over which city is best placed to act as the ­finance hub for China’s global trade and commerce strategy. At the first day of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying ­insisted the city was “the preferred destination” for capital flows from the mainland... (SCMP)

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