The Future is here. Your future!
Are you ready for it?
Have a seat, take a deep breath… and start reading the latest Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin!
GEAB http://www.leap2020.net/
No 119 of November 15, 2017
http://www.leap2020.net/
, online now.
Petroyuan and Saudi Arabia: From the temptation of the US "Military QE" to the creation of a Middle East 3.0
End 2017/early 2018, all major Western Central Banks will be putting a final stop to the 2008 crisis-related unconventional monetary policies, namely the famous quantitative easing policies (QEs) which enabled to provide liquidity to those banks which saw their mutual confidence for borrowing collapse in the aftermath of the subprime crisis. Fiscal QE in rich countries The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are all approaching a slowdown in bond buyback. In Europe, Draghi has repeated it over and over again: the Central Bank cannot do everything and therefore structural reforms of the euro are urgently needed...
Are you ready for it?
Have a seat, take a deep breath… and start reading the latest Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin!
GEAB http://www.leap2020.net/
No 119 of November 15, 2017
http://www.leap2020.net/
, online now.
Petroyuan and Saudi Arabia: From the temptation of the US "Military QE" to the creation of a Middle East 3.0
End 2017/early 2018, all major Western Central Banks will be putting a final stop to the 2008 crisis-related unconventional monetary policies, namely the famous quantitative easing policies (QEs) which enabled to provide liquidity to those banks which saw their mutual confidence for borrowing collapse in the aftermath of the subprime crisis. Fiscal QE in rich countries The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are all approaching a slowdown in bond buyback. In Europe, Draghi has repeated it over and over again: the Central Bank cannot do everything and therefore structural reforms of the euro are urgently needed...
(Read the public announcement http://www.leap2020.net/
Middle-East/Europe: Heading towards a new migration crisis?
The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle East, the world's powder keg, and on the tensions emerging around Lebanon, involving nothing less than protagonists like the United States, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran. The details of this affair send chills up our spines with the resignation/withdrawal of a prime minister (the pro-Saudi Lebanese Saad Hariri), the Israeli-Saudi rapprochement against Hezbollah, the Houthi missiles (Yemen) fired at Riyadh, the involvement of Iran in the latter event by Saudi Arabia...
Middle-East/Europe: Heading towards a new migration crisis?
The end of the year will be rich in surprises and escalation risks, as we have been saying for the last two months. Currently, all eyes are on the Middle East, the world's powder keg, and on the tensions emerging around Lebanon, involving nothing less than protagonists like the United States, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran. The details of this affair send chills up our spines with the resignation/withdrawal of a prime minister (the pro-Saudi Lebanese Saad Hariri), the Israeli-Saudi rapprochement against Hezbollah, the Houthi missiles (Yemen) fired at Riyadh, the involvement of Iran in the latter event by Saudi Arabia...
(Read the entire report / GEAB 119 http://www.leap2020.net/
Iran's attack scenario 2008-2017: What has changed?
Let's now compare the situation in the Middle East in 2008 and today (back then, we, GEAB, considered very high the risk of an Israeli attack on Iran with US backing). What fundamental changes have occurred? The first very big difference is the role now played by Russia in the region; a Russia connected to Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia; which made it possible to break the Syrian quagmire; which restarted OPEC... In short, a Russia which has a very solid crisis resolution reputation in the region...
Iran's attack scenario 2008-2017: What has changed?
Let's now compare the situation in the Middle East in 2008 and today (back then, we, GEAB, considered very high the risk of an Israeli attack on Iran with US backing). What fundamental changes have occurred? The first very big difference is the role now played by Russia in the region; a Russia connected to Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia; which made it possible to break the Syrian quagmire; which restarted OPEC... In short, a Russia which has a very solid crisis resolution reputation in the region...
(Read the entire report / GEAB 119 http://www.leap2020.net/
The Great Petroyuan Temptation
Strong pressure from the Chinese to trade their oil in yuan, a gigantic strategic U-turn for the country and the whole region, therefore harming numerous well-established Saudi interests. In recent days, Saudi oil exports to the US have dramatically declined, a collapse likely to disrupt US interests as well it also corresponding to an old dream of freeing the US from Saudi oil dependence. Except that, finally, it is the Saudis who reduced their oil experts more than the US reduced their Saudi imports. But in fact the US is experiencing the first positive consequences of this reduction: their trade balance with Saudi Arabia, which has always been negative, has just moved into the green thanks also to the increase in arms sales to the kingdom! Everyone seems to agree after all and the Saudis can implement their switch to the Asian markets, now much more interesting tan the shale-oil fed US market...
The Great Petroyuan Temptation
Strong pressure from the Chinese to trade their oil in yuan, a gigantic strategic U-turn for the country and the whole region, therefore harming numerous well-established Saudi interests. In recent days, Saudi oil exports to the US have dramatically declined, a collapse likely to disrupt US interests as well it also corresponding to an old dream of freeing the US from Saudi oil dependence. Except that, finally, it is the Saudis who reduced their oil experts more than the US reduced their Saudi imports. But in fact the US is experiencing the first positive consequences of this reduction: their trade balance with Saudi Arabia, which has always been negative, has just moved into the green thanks also to the increase in arms sales to the kingdom! Everyone seems to agree after all and the Saudis can implement their switch to the Asian markets, now much more interesting tan the shale-oil fed US market...
(Read the entire report / GEAB 119 http://www.leap2020.net/
US military bases, in numbers…
Let us carry a little mental exercise... The country can not afford to maintain its 800 military bases abroad, the cost of which goes up to $160 billion a year. If the United States abandoned half of their bases abroad, the amount saved would be around $65 billion a year. On the other hand, in a multipolar world where peace is ensured by the balance of powers, the need for armament is still huge. For example, Japan is remilitarising rapidly. US arms exportations could therefore be considerably strengthened.
If they increase for example by 50%, this would mean around 25 billion additional income, i.e. $90 billion a year in savings or profits. If we take into account the large increase in next year's military budget desired by Trump and voted almost unanimously by the Congress , we reach a "stimulus" of about $150 billion a year...
US military bases, in numbers…
Let us carry a little mental exercise... The country can not afford to maintain its 800 military bases abroad, the cost of which goes up to $160 billion a year. If the United States abandoned half of their bases abroad, the amount saved would be around $65 billion a year. On the other hand, in a multipolar world where peace is ensured by the balance of powers, the need for armament is still huge. For example, Japan is remilitarising rapidly. US arms exportations could therefore be considerably strengthened.
If they increase for example by 50%, this would mean around 25 billion additional income, i.e. $90 billion a year in savings or profits. If we take into account the large increase in next year's military budget desired by Trump and voted almost unanimously by the Congress , we reach a "stimulus" of about $150 billion a year...
(Read the entire report / GEAB 119 http://www.leap2020.net/
The internationalisation of the Yuan: Securing China's financial system
China's decision to introduce in 2018 the gold-convertible petro-gazo-Yuan currency is an important step in the process of internationalisation of the Yuan. It confirms the will of Beijing (asserted for a decade already) to impose the Renminbi (official name of the Chinese currency) as new global reference currency. In October 2016 the IMF decided to introduce the Yuan into its own currency basket of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), after a series of reforms and intense Chinese pressure. This was a very important step in this internationalisation process. The birth of the petroyuan, more than a year later, is another one...
The internationalisation of the Yuan: Securing China's financial system
China's decision to introduce in 2018 the gold-convertible petro-gazo-Yuan currency is an important step in the process of internationalisation of the Yuan. It confirms the will of Beijing (asserted for a decade already) to impose the Renminbi (official name of the Chinese currency) as new global reference currency. In October 2016 the IMF decided to introduce the Yuan into its own currency basket of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), after a series of reforms and intense Chinese pressure. This was a very important step in this internationalisation process. The birth of the petroyuan, more than a year later, is another one...
(Read the entire report / GEAB 119 http://www.leap2020.net/
The Euro-Yuan couple as an alternative to the "almighty dollar"
China cannot act alone. The Yuan can only be one element of a monetary world destined to become more multipolar. We shall see whether other monetary powers such as the United Kingdom, Japan and the Eurozone will want to play this game of multipolarity to seize the opportunity of the weakening of confidence in the almighty dollar. Here, politics will play an important role. Confronted with Donald Trump's protectionist temptation and aggressive foreign policy, China has tried to impose itself as the champion of free trade, as seen earlier this year during Xi Jiping's speech in Davos
. The idea is to build a trade-promoting alliance to bring the United States back into line...
The Euro-Yuan couple as an alternative to the "almighty dollar"
China cannot act alone. The Yuan can only be one element of a monetary world destined to become more multipolar. We shall see whether other monetary powers such as the United Kingdom, Japan and the Eurozone will want to play this game of multipolarity to seize the opportunity of the weakening of confidence in the almighty dollar. Here, politics will play an important role. Confronted with Donald Trump's protectionist temptation and aggressive foreign policy, China has tried to impose itself as the champion of free trade, as seen earlier this year during Xi Jiping's speech in Davos
. The idea is to build a trade-promoting alliance to bring the United States back into line...
(Read the entire report / GEAB 119 http://www.leap2020.net/
Listening to the weak signals of trends: our selection
Iran.. Germany, France and Norway have signed a series of contracts with Iran. They are not the only ones in Europe , despite the warnings and the risks which potential North American sanctions pose to European companies contravening the US policy. The amounts of those contracts are significant and they refer to diverse sectors, such as traditional industry, energy (oil, gas...) and high-tech sectors like solar power plants, wáter technologies. Infrastructures, transportation and environment are also concerned. The US / EU decoupling is underway, everybody knows that, starting with the British and President Trump himself...
Listening to the weak signals of trends: our selection
Iran.. Germany, France and Norway have signed a series of contracts with Iran. They are not the only ones in Europe , despite the warnings and the risks which potential North American sanctions pose to European companies contravening the US policy. The amounts of those contracts are significant and they refer to diverse sectors, such as traditional industry, energy (oil, gas...) and high-tech sectors like solar power plants, wáter technologies. Infrastructures, transportation and environment are also concerned. The US / EU decoupling is underway, everybody knows that, starting with the British and President Trump himself...
(Read the entire report / GEAB 119 http://www.leap2020.net/
Investments, trends and recommendations
Oil: Do not get too excited. Admittedly, the crude prices have punctually taken off for $70 a barrel in the context of increasing tensions in the Middle East. But the lull brings prices down immediately. OPEC and allies will decide at their November 30 meeting whether to extend the common desire to curb oil supplies rather than go to war to stabilise rates . We expect a crude oil price correction to less than $60 a barrel. Oil suppliers know that too high prices may bring consumers to alternative energy solutions. If a conflict erupts in the Middle East, the spike is likely to be of short duration, so Venezuela is now in a position to draw...
Investments, trends and recommendations
Oil: Do not get too excited. Admittedly, the crude prices have punctually taken off for $70 a barrel in the context of increasing tensions in the Middle East. But the lull brings prices down immediately. OPEC and allies will decide at their November 30 meeting whether to extend the common desire to curb oil supplies rather than go to war to stabilise rates . We expect a crude oil price correction to less than $60 a barrel. Oil suppliers know that too high prices may bring consumers to alternative energy solutions. If a conflict erupts in the Middle East, the spike is likely to be of short duration, so Venezuela is now in a position to draw...
(Read the entire report / GEAB 119 http://www.leap2020.net/
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