jueves, 10 de marzo de 2016

2016/03/08 Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

2016 Anticipations: 12 Up and 22 Down – don't miss the 34 key trends
LEAP/E2020 is offering you, like each year, a summary overview of the key trends in 2016. Besides the intellectual significance of LEAP/E2020’s contribution, which of course reflects many of the analyses of our researchers during the past months, it aims at enabling a better perception of news priorities, while at the same time providing recommendations. This list can actually help the GEAB readers prepare for the coming year. With ten years of a success rate between 69% and 85%, this annual anticipation is a particularly concrete decision-making tool for the coming twelve months. (read more in the GEAB 101)
EU membership strengthens economic 'dynamism': Bank of England
Britain's membership of the European Union reinforces the country's economic "dynamism" but leaves it more exposed to financial shocks, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said Tuesday. Carney expressed the view in a letter to the head of the Treasury Select Committee before facing questions from the cross-party panel of lawmakers on Britain's relationship with the EU ahead of June's referendum on whether the country should remain part of the bloc... (EUBusiness)
Euro-BRICS Young Leaders’ Platform: 1st Euro-BRICS Strategic Planning Meeting, April 2016
It is with great pleasure and pride that we at LEAP present you our next event, designed to take the Euro-BRICS Youth endeavour to the next level! The Euro-BRICS YOUTH Platform was initiated by LEAP after it realised — through its unique method of Political Anticipation — the future-bearing potential of the rapprochement of Europe and the BRICS as a spearhead of global governance reform in a multipolar world. However, given the current global political setup the Euro-BRICS connection does not live up to its full potential... (LEAP - EuroBRICS)
'Game changer': How the EU may shut Turkish door on migrants
A European Union draft deal with Turkey to stop migrants reaching Greece introduces a harder edge of coercion to what critics have derided as a hitherto feeble EU response to a crisis tearing it apart. Just last week, some saw European Council President Donald Tusk running short on ideas when he urged would-be migrants: "Do not come to Europe." UKIP, a party campaigning to take Britain out of the EU at a June referendum, said his "weak plea" was "too little too late to stop the vast migrant flow into Europe". (Reuters)
Valdis Dombrovskis: Caught in the European (Dis)union?
The European Union is confronted with an unprecedented refugee crisis which is threatening its very existence. Is it time for a structural overhaul? Not if you ask Vice President of the EU Commission, Valdis Dombrovskis. 20 years after a border-free Europe was introduced, the European Union's (EU) very existence is threatened. After having to deal with an economic crisis that is still not over, Europe is now facing an unprecedented refugee crisis... (Deutsche Welle)
Europe Is Horrified by Trump, but He’d Fit Right In
His mix of nativism and protectionism has proved a winning formula for far-right parties across the continent. rom the volume of the outrage, you’d think Europeans had never dealt with the likes of Donald Trump before. The French newspaper Libération called him “the American Nightmare.” The German newsweekly Der Spiegel slapped his face on its cover in front of flames crawling up an American flag... (Bloomberg)
Turkey cracks down on Zaman, an opposition newspaper
Late on March 4th, amid a volley of rubber bullets, clouds of tear gas and water cannons, Turkish police stormed the headquarters of Zaman, a daily newspaper, clearing the way for its takeover by a panel of court-appointed trustees. “The constitution has been suspended”, the paper’s front page mournfully proclaimed on Saturday morning. The next day, its first under new management, the cover featured a photo of a smiling Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president; a story about an upcoming Women’s Day reception at his $615m presidential palace; and news of the construction of a new bridge over the Bosporus strait. Overnight, a staunchly critical newspaper with the highest circulation in Turkey appeared to have become a government mouthpiece... (The Economist)
Europe’s new cold war turns digital as Vladimir Putin expands media offensive
Jānis Sārts’s grandfather was sent to Siberia by the Russians. His wife’s aunt was unlucky enough to be deported from Latvia, not only in 1946 but again in 1949 after a short reprieve. Sārts, now the director of Nato’s strategic communications centre of excellence in Riga, responsible for recording and responding to enemy propaganda methods, remembers the long queues for sausage and bread under the Soviet Union. “Sausage you would have once a month,” he recalls... (The Guardian)
Cruz or Trump: A choice between two dangers
Among some people, the new parlor game is choosing who would make the worst president: Ted Cruz or Donald Trump. This is not a lady-or-the-tiger dilemma, but a tiger-or-tiger one. The choice is between a fiercely friendless reactionary and a bombastic, thoroughly dishonest egomaniac. You pick. My choice is Trump. He wins in this close and ugly race even though I consulted a conservative lawyer who knows Cruz and he, to my surprise, chose the senator from Texas. He cited Cruz’s cramped interpretation of the Constitution — and a personality approximating that of a wolverine... (The Washington Post)
US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Dollar Facing 2016 Lows As Data Picks Up
Do not look now, but the US Dollar is close to printing 2016 lows. We have a scenario on our hands that is uniquely different to 2015 at the same time of year. Last year, the US Dollar was a run-away train into the Ides of March, and then the Fed came out to tell markets that the Fed would not harm the world with a Strong Dollar on their own accord. From there, on March 18 the US Dollar started a steady multi-month decline until August 24 or Black Monday of 2015... (Daily FX)
EU may struggle for balance in ties with China
The European Union will likely struggle to find a balance in relations with China this year, after initiatives such as participating in the Beijing-sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank contributed to a warming of ties last year with the world's second-largest economy. On Feb. 15, the head office of the EU in Brussels was surrounded by about 5,000 demonstrators wearing hard hats and carrying banners and signs, who accused China of dumping steel and demanded the protection of jobs in Europe... (Asia Nikkei)
Cancer tumour genetics reveal possible treatment revolution
A landmark discovery into the genetic makeup of tumours has the potential to open a new front in the war on cancer, delivering potent therapies that are tailored to individual patients, scientists have said. The breakthrough comes from research into the genetic complexity of lung and skin cancers which found that even as tumours grow and spread around the body, they carry with them a number of biological “flags” that the immune system can be primed to attack... (The Guardian)
Western Sahara: Young rebels feel betrayed by EU
When UN head Ban Ki-moon visits refugee camps in Algeria on Friday (5 March), he’ll meet a growing number of young people who feel betrayed by Europe and who believe that only violence can regain their homeland. The Sahrawi Arabs, who’ve lived in the desert camps in southern Algeria for 40 years, are a legacy of Africa’s last decolonisation project... (EUObserver)
What China’s Scaling Up Of Global Finance Really Means
Erik Berglof via Caixin | On December 14, the board of governors of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) approved China’s application for membership. China is, of course, already a shareholder in several global and regional development institutions, but the EBRD is different in its focus on private sector development and explicit promotion of democracy and a market economy. Membership is part of much more ambitions engagement of China in global finance... (The Corner)

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