domingo, 6 de marzo de 2016

2016/03/01 Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

Brexit is not on the agenda
There are too many interests in the UK, Europe and worldwide related to the Brexit issue. On one side (in Europe), people discuss the necessary compromises to "save face", to the point of agreeing on more of this Europe "à la carte", already enjoyed by the United Kingdom; on the other side, Cameron will have to agree with a minimum to weigh the balance on the remaining side in the EU. Our LEAP team maintains its anticipation of the "REMAIN" victory within the referendum. The government, David Cameron in fact, has no plan B, no Brexit plan. They seem even not to wish for it (in case such a thing happens, it will definitely be Europe's fault ), demonstrating once more the whole vanity and emptiness of the British blackmail... (GEAB by LEAP Subscribe)
Jeremy Corbyn 'not on same side' as David Cameron in EU debate
Jeremy Corbyn has drawn a deeper dividing line with David Cameron over Europe, highlighting the leave campaign’s claims that the UK’s deal with Brussels may not be legally binding. The Labour leader, who supports staying in the EU, categorically ruled out sharing a platform with the prime minister as he seeks to make a completely separate argument against Brexit. He stressed he is “not on the same side of the argument” as Cameron despite both fighting for the remain campaign to win... (The Guardian)

Merkel Warns of `Chaos' in Greece as Refugees Mass at Border
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Greece needs Europe’s help to keep the refugee crisis from plunging the country into “chaos” as police across the border in Macedonia fired tear gas to keep out thousands of migrants. The violence at Greece’s northern frontier on Monday underscores the risk of a refugee bottleneck in a country that set off Europe’s debt crisis in 2010 and made austerity pledges to win its third international bailout last year. In a television interview, Merkel said shielding Greece is on the agenda of a European Union summit with Turkish officials on March 7... (Bloomberg)

Crowdfunding: "the Rise of the 99%"
While looking to invest wisely, to support the local economy, or to find projects matching your choices, depending on your activity domain, on the ability to create jobs, on innovation, or on ecological, social footprints... crowdfunding and crowdinvesting (start-ups and SMEs own financing) or crowdlending (crowdfunding connected to private loans) provide all investment opportunities to diversify portfolios with the capital of innovative, dynamic and high growth companies. Those are simple and effective tools (via web platforms turning billions of funds) offering significant tax benefits, which are experiencing rapid development, while traditional markets collapse. The collection potential is 1,000 billion dollars for the next ten years, out of which 96 billion could be allocated to emerging countries... (Investment recommendations - GEAB 102)
Irish election creates political puzzle
Irish voters have turned away from the two parties responsible for unpopular austerity measures, but the result from Friday's (26 February) election is unlikely to leave any party with an obvious path to government. With counting still going on in some districts on Monday (29 February), no clear winner has yet emerged from Friday's election. However, prime minister Enda Kenny's coalition has certainly lost its majority. With the results in for 148 of 158 parliament seats, Kenny's centre-right Fine Gael party received around 25 percent of the votes, down from 36 percent in 2011... (EUObserver)

Orban says Hungary faces 'serious challenge' in euro decision
The euro zone's troubles are forcing its member states to forge closer integration and Hungary will have to decide in coming years whether to give up some sovereignty in economic policy and join the group, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Monday. Orban, in power since 2010, has clashed with Brussels on a range of issues from the economy to immigration. A feisty nationalist, he has often accused the European Union of meddling in areas he says should be the preserve of national governments... (Reuters)
Russia's Economy Is Tanking, So Why Is Putin Smiling?
With Russia mired in the longest recession in two decades, there hasn’t been a lot of good economic news lately. But there’s one indicator that’s looking up, and it’s the one that matters most to Vladimir Putin: His hard-currency reserves. The central bank held $379 billion in foreign exchange and gold as of Feb. 19, up $29 billion from lows touched last April, making Russia the only major emerging market with a gain. While China and Saudi Arabia have spent tens of billions of dollars to shore up their currencies, the central bank in Moscow has gone cold turkey on intervention... (Bloomberg)
Beware of buying in to the ‘merger’ euphemism
It turns out I know more about mergers than I thought. Having studied the details of Deutsche Börse’s proposed deal with the London Stock Exchange this week, I’ve realised that I advised on a near identical Anglo-German transaction a few years back: when the Vincent family “merged” with a second-hand 1.4 litre Volkswagen Polo... (Financial Times)
Guns fall silent in Syria
Guns mostly fell silent in Syria and Russian air raids stopped on Saturday, the first day of a cessation of hostilities that the United Nations has described as the best hope for peace in five years of civil war. Under the U.S.-Russian accord accepted by President Bashar al-Assad's government and many of his foes, fighting should cease so aid can reach civilians and talks can open to end a war that has killed more than 250,000 people and made 11 million homeless... (Reuters)

Aegean zones complicate Nato migrant rescues
Nato on Thursday (25 February) agreed the terms of its Aegean monitoring operation. But small print on migrant rescues is being read in various ways. Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said Nato vessels are already in the region doing “surveillance” of “illegal trafficking and illegal migration.” He said Nato’s task “is not to turn back the boats” but to spot boats and alert the Greek and Turkish coastguards and EU border control agency Frontex. With dozens of dinghies crossing each day, he noted that Nato vessels are, under international law, obliged to rescue people at risk of drowning... (EUObserver)
ECB Window for Stimulus Message Closing as Prices Slide
For the next three days, European Central Bank officials will walk a communications tightrope. With the latest inflation figures showing the return of price declines, the window of opportunity is closing for the ECB to signal any stimulus intentions for its March 10 decision before a self-imposed quiet period starts on Thursday. Executive Board member Benoit Coeure, the architect of euro-area quantitative easing, will speak in both Frankfurt and Brussels on Wednesday, with hints also possible from his colleague Sabine Lautenschlaeger and national central bank heads... (Bloomberg)
New bank another BRICS in Beijing’s diplomatic wall
A new $100 billion bank for major emerging nations will sign agreements to establish its headquarters in China on Saturday, the latest step in Beijing’s efforts to re-engineer the world’s financial institutions. The New Development Bank (NDB), set up by the so-called BRICS nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, has been viewed as a challenge to Washington-based institutions... (Daily Times)
Can a Free Trade Commonwealth replace the EU?
New Zealand MP, Winston Peters has thrown his voice into the great EU referendum debate, by suggesting Britain leaves the EU, and “heal a rift” with the nations of the Commonwealth that emerged when Britain joined the EEC. He has even gone as far as suggesting a Commonwealth free trade area, which has been enthusiastically picked up by the UKIP Commonwealth spokesman. The concept of a Commonwealth free trade area pops up every now and then as an alternative to the EU, but with the referendum on the horizon, it is likely this suggestion will begin to gain more traction... (The London Economic)

India’s Annual Budget: Focus On Agriculture, Rural Economy, Infrastructure
With key state elections coming up later in the year, an image of being friendly to big business at the expense of welfare spending, and with severe droughts affecting large swathes of the country’s rural population, the Indian government announced the national budget Monday, allocating huge sums of money for the rural economy. In his speech to the Parliament, India’s Finance Minister Arun Jaitley announced the allocation of almost 360 billion rupees (more than $5.25 billion) toward agriculture and farmers’ welfare... (IBTimes)

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