domingo, 24 de abril de 2016

2016/04/20 Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

Brazil, Europe, Iran, US, Saudi Arabia – The return of national sovereignty: heading toward one ultimate stand?
For nearly 10 years now, the global systemic crisis has been composing an impressive symphonic « canon » in which the financial crisis, the economic crisis, the social crisis, the political crisis, the ideological crisis and the geopolitical crisis, all of them of a global dimension, play similar melodic lines sequenced one after the other. It’s the political aspect of the crisis which currently dominates the global agenda in an increasingly worrisome manner. The weakening of states as a result of these political crises, combined with geopolitical or economic shocks suffered by these states, leads to national retrenchment and hardening that does not bode well for democracy, from a domestic point of view, or for peace, from an international point of view. We’ve already seen all this in detail. However, we should analyse carefully the characteristics of this multi-directional national retrenchment... (The GEAB 104 is now available and worth reading every single page !)
Turkey and EU hail successes of migrant deal
The EU commission and Turkey have praised their controversial migrant deal for breaking the business model of the people smugglers and decreasing the number of migrants travelling to Europe. EU commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu talked about the deal at the Council of Europe on Tuesday (19 April), a day before the EU’s executive was due to unveil its first assessment of the agreement... (EUObserver)
Brussels seeks €50 billion to digitalise Europe’s industry
The European Commission unveiled its long-awaited strategy to support the digitalisation of industry on Tuesday (19 April), aiming to mobilise around €50 billion by 2021 to help manufacturers catch up in the global race for the fourth industrial revolution... (Euractiv)
US Elections: The end of the American democracy as we knew it
Even though it was considered a global model, at least since Tocqueville and his book Democracy in America (1835), the US democracy is currently on the verge of a major turning point. This shift seems to be the result of the total lack of updating in American politics, the self-proclaimed paragon of global democracy. Yet, this time, despite the image given to it by the media, the problem is much deeper than the low level of the debates or the candidates' personalities... (Read more in the latest GEAB bulletin)

Too Many Government Secrets Make the U.S. Unsafe
“There’s classified, and then there’s classified,” President Barack Obama said in a recent interview. Unfortunately, he’s right: The U.S. government classifies vast amounts of material as secret, top secret and the like, much of it with no relevance to national security. This isn’t just a bureaucratic waste of money and a blow to the democratic ideal of government transparency... (Bloomberg)

Trump's surprising new style and other New York lessons
Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump claim New York as their home state, and on Tuesday New York voters treated them like family. Other states may have kicked them around - oh, that mean Wisconsin! - but when the two front-runners came back to their native land, they were enveloped in the welcoming arms of those who know and love them best... (BBC)
EU, US and China fail to agree on steel production
Major steel-producing countries failed to agree measures to tackle global overcapacity during a meeting in Brussels on Monday (18 April). China, the world’s biggest producer, and other major players agreed that the issue was urgent, but they continued to argue over whether Beijing was causing global overcapacity by subsidising domestic production... (EUObserver)
Gold is the spectre haunting our monetary system
For a century, elites have worked to eliminate monetary gold, both physically and ideologically. This began in 1914, with the UK’s entry into the First World War. The Bank of England wanted to suspend convertibility of bank notes into gold. Keynes counselled wisely that the bank should not do so. Gold was finite, but credit elastic... (The Telegraph)
Will each UK household be £4,300 worse off if the UK leaves the EU?
The Treasury has published an analysis (pdf) of the implications of Britain leaving the EU and concluded that the economy would be 6% smaller by 2030, costing each household £4,300. But how did the chancellor, George Osborne, come to this conclusion and do the numbers stack up ... (The Guardian)
Fact, Fiction and Brexit: Truth-Squadding the Arguments
The U.K.’s referendum on its membership in the European Union has prompted a whirlwind of claims about the bloc, some more accurate than others. Both sides are clashing over the effects an exit will have on trade and investment, especially after the publication of a U.K. Treasury report this week predicting a decline in British output of as much as 7.5 percent after 15 years, costing as much as 2,100 pounds ($3,000) per person... (Bloomberg)
Brexit survey: UK should stay in EU
With the UK's June 23 referendum just over two months away, a survey taken this month looked to Germany, Poland, France and Spain for opinions about a possible "Brexit" - how likely they thought it was, whether they wanted it and whether it would hurt the EU. The German-based pollsters Infratest-dimap conducted the nationwide telephone and online surveys in cooperation with institutes in each of these countries between April 4 and 14... (Deutsche Welle)

Trade surplus for EU in February of EUR 3.0 bn
The EU recorded a surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world of EUR 3.0 bn in February, compared with +EUR 1.8 bn in February 2015, according to first estimates from Eurostat, the EU's statistical office. The first estimate for extra-EU28 exports of goods in February 2016 was €137.1 billion, down by 1% compared with February 2015 (€138.2 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €134.1 bn, down by 2% compared with February 2015 (€136.4 bn)... (EUBusiness)

BRICS moves to establish bank institute, rating agency
BRICS countries on Friday discussed the efficacy of "establishing" a bank institute and a rating agency of their own following the New Development Bank (NDB) becoming fully operational. BRICS finance ministers and central bank governors met here on the sidelines of the Annual Spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, for a discussion chaired by finance minister Arun Jaitley... (Times of India)
Won't be euphoric if India is fastest-growing large economy: central bank chief
India should find ways to support higher economic growth on a sustainable basis and not fritter away gains as it did in the past, central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Wednesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's two-year old government is seeking to bolster an economy which grew 7.3 percent, among the fastest growth rates in large economies, but below the 8 percent growth needed to generate jobs for millions of Indians joining the workforce every year... (Reuters)

Saudi Prince Says Kingdom Working to Soften Subsidy Cut Blow
Saudi Arabia will limit the impact of subsidy cuts on its citizens as the world’s largest oil exporter overhauls its economy for the post-oil era, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said. The government is developing a mechanism to provide cash to low- and middle-income Saudis who rely on subsidies, Prince Mohammed said in an interview on Thursday at King Salman’s private farm in Diriyah... (Bloomberg)

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