Coming up soon, the GEAB Bulletin No 106 ! Main topics
-East of Eden: An unfinished symphony of the European Integration process
-Insurance Industry: Inside the tornado
-Central Banks and US Elections: Little arrangements between friends
-The Conquest of Space and Multipolarity: A war of the shooting stars
-National Democracies: A huge global systemic failure (GEAB Subscription)
-East of Eden: An unfinished symphony of the European Integration process
-Insurance Industry: Inside the tornado
-Central Banks and US Elections: Little arrangements between friends
-The Conquest of Space and Multipolarity: A war of the shooting stars
-National Democracies: A huge global systemic failure (GEAB Subscription)
'Brump' or 'Trexit'? Markets may conflate year's biggest risks
Even though market myopia is often used to explain why investors appear to be ignoring November's U.S. presidential election while trading furiously around this month's vote on Britain leaving the EU, the two events may end up being conflated. Fund managers and economists puzzle endlessly as to why UK and European markets are gyrating ahead of the "Brexit" vote but U.S. assets... (Reuters)
Even though market myopia is often used to explain why investors appear to be ignoring November's U.S. presidential election while trading furiously around this month's vote on Britain leaving the EU, the two events may end up being conflated. Fund managers and economists puzzle endlessly as to why UK and European markets are gyrating ahead of the "Brexit" vote but U.S. assets... (Reuters)
What an Obama endorsement will mean for Hillary
Barack Obama is about to tell Bernie Sanders that the revolution stops now. On Tuesday evening Mr Obama called Hillary Clinton to congratulate her on securing enough delegates to "clinch" the Democratic nomination. He also called Bernie Sanders to thank him for his hard-fought campaign... (BBC)
Barack Obama is about to tell Bernie Sanders that the revolution stops now. On Tuesday evening Mr Obama called Hillary Clinton to congratulate her on securing enough delegates to "clinch" the Democratic nomination. He also called Bernie Sanders to thank him for his hard-fought campaign... (BBC)
UK’s Referendum, a prerequisite to restarting Europe
Since the United Kingdom joined the European Community in 1973, according to the exorbitant terms that we know for Europe, its leaders have renewed, ad nauseam, Margaret Thatcher’s strategy based on the following idea: “You need us, but we do not want you, so you do as we say”. Yet, what was true in 1973, and what was experienced during a glorious period in the 90s, is no longer the case today. In fact, it is precisely the UK’s attitude toward the continent which ended up crushing the springs of the aforementioned strategy. By maintaining Euro-scepticism within its public opinion, by staying away from all strong European integration projects (Schengen, eurozone, etc.), the United Kingdom has isolated itself from the continent … (GEAB 102 / LEAP)
Since the United Kingdom joined the European Community in 1973, according to the exorbitant terms that we know for Europe, its leaders have renewed, ad nauseam, Margaret Thatcher’s strategy based on the following idea: “You need us, but we do not want you, so you do as we say”. Yet, what was true in 1973, and what was experienced during a glorious period in the 90s, is no longer the case today. In fact, it is precisely the UK’s attitude toward the continent which ended up crushing the springs of the aforementioned strategy. By maintaining Euro-scepticism within its public opinion, by staying away from all strong European integration projects (Schengen, eurozone, etc.), the United Kingdom has isolated itself from the continent … (GEAB 102 / LEAP)
Ahead of Brexit vote, support for EU falls across Europe
A survey by the Pew Research Center suggests that support for the European Union has fallen in several EU states. In Germany, the EU's popularity has fallen eight points to 50 percent in just a year. The Pew survey revealed that 48 percent of British voters had an unfavorable opinion about the EU, compared to 44 percent who were in favor, a similar figure to recent national opinion polls... (Deutsche Welle)
A survey by the Pew Research Center suggests that support for the European Union has fallen in several EU states. In Germany, the EU's popularity has fallen eight points to 50 percent in just a year. The Pew survey revealed that 48 percent of British voters had an unfavorable opinion about the EU, compared to 44 percent who were in favor, a similar figure to recent national opinion polls... (Deutsche Welle)
A Manual of political anticipation, by Marie-Helene Caillol
The work conducted by LEAP through its monthly publication, the GEAB (GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin), has forced the respect of academics, giving rise to a need for a contemporary approach, which is the purpose of this manual: What is political anticipation (and what it isn’t)? What is its use? What are the tools, principles and rules which shape it? What are its limits? These are the questions which this manual will try and answer... (Anticipolis Editions)
The work conducted by LEAP through its monthly publication, the GEAB (GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin), has forced the respect of academics, giving rise to a need for a contemporary approach, which is the purpose of this manual: What is political anticipation (and what it isn’t)? What is its use? What are the tools, principles and rules which shape it? What are its limits? These are the questions which this manual will try and answer... (Anticipolis Editions)
EU likely to extend Russia sanctions before summit
The EU is preparing to extend its economic sanctions on Russia before the June summit, as Russian diplomats target a winter deadline instead. The preferred option of EU Council chief Donald Tusk is for EU states’ ambassadors to conclude the Russia decision so that leaders can focus on the aftermath of the UK referendum... (EUObserver)
The EU is preparing to extend its economic sanctions on Russia before the June summit, as Russian diplomats target a winter deadline instead. The preferred option of EU Council chief Donald Tusk is for EU states’ ambassadors to conclude the Russia decision so that leaders can focus on the aftermath of the UK referendum... (EUObserver)
JPMorgan, RBS Said to Staff Trading Floors Overnight for Brexit
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Morgan Stanley and Lloyds Banking Group Plc are among banks in London who plan to keep traders overnight to monitor the markets and handle client trades as results of the referendum on European Union membership trickle in, people with knowledge of the plans said. Currency traders, whose market stays open 24 hours, are among those most likely to remain in the office as they grapple with moves in the pound that have grown more volatile as the vote approaches... (Bloomberg)
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Morgan Stanley and Lloyds Banking Group Plc are among banks in London who plan to keep traders overnight to monitor the markets and handle client trades as results of the referendum on European Union membership trickle in, people with knowledge of the plans said. Currency traders, whose market stays open 24 hours, are among those most likely to remain in the office as they grapple with moves in the pound that have grown more volatile as the vote approaches... (Bloomberg)
Yellen speech may be attempt at damage control
Only a few days ago, analysts thought Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen would use her speech in Philadelphia Monday to put the final explanation point on the U.S. central bank’s plan to hike interest rates on June 15. Now, in the wake of the weak May jobs report, Yellen has a new role, damage control... (Market Watch)
Only a few days ago, analysts thought Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen would use her speech in Philadelphia Monday to put the final explanation point on the U.S. central bank’s plan to hike interest rates on June 15. Now, in the wake of the weak May jobs report, Yellen has a new role, damage control... (Market Watch)
Cheap Money in U.S. Helped Inflate the Energy Balloon: Gadfly
Count the intensity of the shale oil boom — and its severe bust — as one of the unintended consequences of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to buttress the economy. The hydraulic fracturing (fracking) method of extracting oil and gas from shale rock has been around for decades, but it didn’t really take off until right after the financial crisis, when a confluence of events meant smaller drillers and speculators had access to billions and billions of dollars of relatively cheap financing... (BOE Report)
Count the intensity of the shale oil boom — and its severe bust — as one of the unintended consequences of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to buttress the economy. The hydraulic fracturing (fracking) method of extracting oil and gas from shale rock has been around for decades, but it didn’t really take off until right after the financial crisis, when a confluence of events meant smaller drillers and speculators had access to billions and billions of dollars of relatively cheap financing... (BOE Report)
Juncker agrees to visit Russia in June
EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has agreed to visit Russia in June. It will be the highest-profile visit by an EU official since the Ukraine crisis erupted in 2014. Juncker's spokesman Margaritis Schinas told journalists in Brussels that the commission president planned to take part in the St Petersburg international economic forum on 16 June in order to “convey to the Russian leadership the EU perspective on current state of EU-Russian relations”... (EUObserver)
EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has agreed to visit Russia in June. It will be the highest-profile visit by an EU official since the Ukraine crisis erupted in 2014. Juncker's spokesman Margaritis Schinas told journalists in Brussels that the commission president planned to take part in the St Petersburg international economic forum on 16 June in order to “convey to the Russian leadership the EU perspective on current state of EU-Russian relations”... (EUObserver)
EU nations refuse to back new license for glyphosate
EU nations refused to back a limited extension of the herbicide glyphosate’s use on Monday, threatening withdrawal of Monsanto’s Roundup and other weed-killers from shelves if no decision is reached by the end of the month. Contradictory findings on carcinogenic risks have thrust the chemical into the center of a dispute among EU and U.S. politicians, regulators and researchers. Citizen and environmental groups have urged governments to exercise caution... (STL Today)
EU nations refused to back a limited extension of the herbicide glyphosate’s use on Monday, threatening withdrawal of Monsanto’s Roundup and other weed-killers from shelves if no decision is reached by the end of the month. Contradictory findings on carcinogenic risks have thrust the chemical into the center of a dispute among EU and U.S. politicians, regulators and researchers. Citizen and environmental groups have urged governments to exercise caution... (STL Today)
France launches smartphone app to alert people to terror attacks
The French government has created a smartphone app designed to send warnings directly to people’s phones in the event of a bombing, shooting or other disaster. Two days before the Euro 2016 football tournament opens in France amid a high police and military presence, the French interior ministry unveiled its alert app called Saip (Système d’alerte et d’information des populations)... (The Guardian)
The French government has created a smartphone app designed to send warnings directly to people’s phones in the event of a bombing, shooting or other disaster. Two days before the Euro 2016 football tournament opens in France amid a high police and military presence, the French interior ministry unveiled its alert app called Saip (Système d’alerte et d’information des populations)... (The Guardian)
China’s imperialism on the South China Sea
China’s determined efforts over the past two decades to seize control of almost the entire South China Sea is nothing short of classic aggressive imperialism. What’s remarkable is that it has been done without basically firing a shot, using the Chinese People’s Liberation Army concept of “military soft power... (Washington Times)
China’s determined efforts over the past two decades to seize control of almost the entire South China Sea is nothing short of classic aggressive imperialism. What’s remarkable is that it has been done without basically firing a shot, using the Chinese People’s Liberation Army concept of “military soft power... (Washington Times)
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