miércoles, 29 de junio de 2016

2016/06/28 - Political Anticipation - A Press Review by LEAP

US interest rates: Who believes the story?
The Fed's little game of announcing interest rate increases has started anew. Some think that they need this to give credibility to the idea that the US economy is better and to support the dollar a little longer; but the same people also understand that a stronger dollar damages the US exports. Meanwhile other groups in the US have a greater interest in establishing a negative balance (or, let's say, a realistic balance sheet) of the economic situation, in order to impose a change of political direction. Moreover, the previous rate increase tests had a dear price for the rest of the planet - knowing that being a dominant global power gives the US responsibilities outside its own territory. Another significant point is that the Fed has lost much of its influence, making this management method of the US crisis less and less efficient. All these contradictions are revealed in the following sequence: Yellen's announcements of interest rate increases were first followed by no visible effect, but... (Subscribe to the GEAB to read LEAP's latest investment recommendations)

Brexit 2.0: With the Vote Over, CEOs Lobby to Keep EU Access
The vote is over but the campaign continues. With financial markets reeling from the Brexit vote, U.K. companies are stepping up lobbying to maintain access to the European Union’s single market and labor, deepening potential rifts with British “Leave” voters who want to curb immigration. Prime Minister David Cameron has called an emergency meeting Thursday of his Business Advisory Group, which includes chief executive officers of companies like BP Plc, Whitbread Plc and EasyJet Plc, according to a person familiar with the situation. On Tuesday afternoon, U.K. Business Secretary Sajid Javid has invited two dozen senior executives to a separate gathering... (Bloomberg)

English at risk as official EU language
A senior MEP has said English would be dropped as an EU official language once the UK leaves the bloc, unless rules are changed. « If we don’t have the UK, we don’t have English, » Polish centre-right MEP Danuta Huebner told reporters in Brussels on Monday (27 June). Huebner chairs the European Parliament’s committee on constitutional affairs (AFCO). The committee oversees the parliament’s role on the UK’s exit from the European Union. Speaking in English, Huebner said EU rules allow member state to notify only one official language each, not two or more... (EUObserver)

Ratings agencies rip into UK’s credit score after Brexit vote
Britain suffered further blows to its economic standing on Monday as two top ratings agencies downgraded its sovereign credit score, judging last week’s vote to leave the European Union would hurt its economy. Standard & Poor’s stripped Britain of its last remaining top-notch credit rating, dropping it by two grades from « AAA » to « AA » and warning more downgrades could follow. Fitch Ratings also downgraded its ranking for Britain’s creditworthiness by one notch, and similarly said more cuts could follow... (Reuters)

Erdogan ‘sorry’ for downing of Russian jet
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he is « sorry » for the downing of a Russian military jet near the country’s border with Syria last year, and that there was no deliberate intention in carrying out the attack, a Kremlin spokesman said. Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin received a message from Erdogan expressing his « sympathy and deep condolences » to the family of the killed pilot, and « asked to be forgiven »... (AlJazeera)

Poland to push for 'radical' new EU treaty
The EU should have a new treaty that shifts power from the European Commission to EU states and Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk should resign, Poland has indicated ahead of Tuesday’s (28 June) summit. Polish foreign minister Witold Waszczykowski told press on Monday that prime minister Beata Szydlo would likely outline Poland’s post-Brexit vision at the leaders’ dinner... (EUObserver)

AIIB makes quick rise to global prominence
Board approves first four loans totaling $509 million; other economies lining up tobecome members. The China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is stepping up to play a more significantrole in the global financial landscape, with the first batch of projects approved and moremembers expected to join... (China Daily)
Spanish elections: renewed deadlock beckons as no party wins majority
Spain is facing further political deadlock after the country’s second general election in six months proved a near rerun of the December vote, leaving the conservative Partido Popular (PP) with the most votes but once again short of an overall majority. Exit polls, which had suggested that the far-left Unidos Podemos coalition was on course to stage a historic breakthrough by pushing the socialist PSOE into third place... (The Guardian)

Sorry Shanghai, There’s a New China Stock Exchange King
The Shanghai Stock Exchange’s reign as the premier venue for trading Chinese equities is coming to an end. For the first time in at least a decade, China’s oldest bourse has lost its position at the top of turnover rankings for the nation’s four major trading venues. The new leader is Shenzhen’s Small and Medium Enterprise Board, a 12-year-old market for mostly non-state companies that first climbed to No. 1 on May 17. It has since jockeyed for position with the Shanghai, with both bourses handling about 180 billion yuan ($27.1 billion) of trades on average over the past five days… (Bloomberg)

What’s behind the new deal between Turkey and Israel?
They were once close allies, before relations soured six years ago when an Israeli naval raid killed 10 Turkish activists. Now, after many months of negotiation, a deal has been reached to restore relations between Israel and Turkey. Turkish leaders describe it as a « diplomatic victory », and announced 10,000 tonnes of humanitarian aid is being shipped to Gaza on Friday, via an Israeli port... (AlJazeera)

Falluja fully liberated from Islamic State
Islamic State has been entirely routed from Falluja, one of the jihadi group’s two major Iraqi strongholds, a senior Iraqi commander has declared, marking the end of a month-long operation during which tens of thousands of people fled the city. Lieutenant General Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi, the head of the counter-terrorism forces in the operation, said on Sunday that Iraqi troops had entered the north-western Golan neighbourhood, the last area of Falluja to remain under Isis control... (The Guardian)

Latest Brazil Study On Impeachment Unlikely To Save Dilma
A technical report into whether or not Dilma cooked the books on fiscal accounts in 2014 turned out in her favor. Come to find out, she did not push forward accounts, but still — according to one Brazil economist I spoke with — did commit crimes of fiscal responsibility. That will still be for the Senate to decide when suspended president Dilma Rousseff goes to trial at some point in late July, early August... (Forbes)

The Conquest of Space and Multipolarity: Shooting Star Wars
In 1967 the United States, Russia, India, Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy (which launched its first satellite in 1964! [2]), and many other states from Europe and the world signed the Outer Space Treaty[3]. This fundamental act states that outer space belongs to all mankind and that no state can appropriate its resources. Two years later, the first man walked on the Moon and ever since nothing has stopped the expansionism of the conquest of space, nor its multipolarity: the United States, Russia to start with, but also Europe, India and China have successfully launched themselves into the space exploration… (GEAB by LEAP)

How to improve the timing in political anticipation?
We are happy to share with you an article written by our network of Experts during one of our online meetings on Political Anticipation: how to improve the timing in Political Anticipation? (PDF here: How to improve the timing in political anticipation). The method to give a timing in political anticipation consists in analyzing when different trends and ruptures converge, giving a “risky period” in which a tiny incident will precipitate the anticipated event. However it turns out that being accurate is terribly difficult. How can we improve this exercise? Several factors have to be taken into account... (LEAP.net)

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