sábado, 2 de septiembre de 2017

2017/09/01 Political Anticipation - A LEAP Press review

2017-2020, Euro crisis: A compromise solution for a non-democratic Euroland

In the GEAB no 109 of November 2016 we wondered if “the euro would survive beyond the year 2017”. Five months later, we wish to deepen and complete our analysis. One reason for the weakness of the euro comes from the political anaemia of the euro zone, which is ultimately far too un-integrated to afford a single currency, or (the other side of the coin, if we may say it this way) afford misconceptions around this single currency for a heterogeneous zone...
(GEAB Bulletin 114  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8GBQJRTwtTVx4DBgQBBw)

Let's get serious, EU tells UK
EU and British negotiators started the third round of Brexit talks on Monday (28 August) amid growing disagreements on how the process is going. "To be honest I am concerned. Time passes quickly," EU main negotiator Michel Barnier said before meeting UK Brexit secretary David Davis. "We must start negotiating seriously," Barnier said, calling on the UK government to present its positions "on all separation issues"...
(EUObserver  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8GBQJQTwtTVx4DBgQBBw)

Draghi Seen Putting a Lid on Euro as Traders Test Pain Threshold

The chances of verbal intervention from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi against the euro's appreciation increased after the currency climbed to its strongest level in more than two years versus the dollar, according to foreign-exchange strategists. The currency, which broke above the psychological $1.20 level for the first time since January 2015 on Tuesday, may see some profit taking in the near term, but banks have no doubts its trajectory remains bullish going forward, triggering an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions in the euro region...
(Bloomberg  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8GBQJZTwtTVx4DBgQBBw)

From the European Union to the European Space: From Brexit to Crisexit?

Brexit must be maintained because it serves both sides of the Channel by creating the conditions of change so needed after ten years of crisis. But it must also be used to: . Allow the reform of the UK . Allow the reform of the continent . Allow the reform of the UK's relationship with the continent With the electoral results which have brought supporters for a soft-Brexit, different scenarios are now officially possible ...
(GEABBulletin 116  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8GBQJTTwtTVx4DBgQBBw)

Merkel and Macron approve creation of eurozone finance minister

Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron have thrown their weight behind the creation of a new powerful eurozone finance minister post that would oversee economic policy across the bloc. Speaking in Paris on Tuesday French president Mr Macron said that a “revamp” creating the new economy chief and a eurozone-wide budget were key to helping the bloc weather future crises...
(Today Europe  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8GBQJSTwtTVx4DBgQBBw)

London Waterloo: Network Rail boss sorry for fresh delays

The boss of Network Rail has apologised to passengers after fresh delays at the UK's busiest railway station despite the completion of long-running engineering works. Its chief executive, Mark Carne, said London Waterloo had fully reopened “a little bit later than planned” following a signalling problem that closed platforms during the early morning rush-hour on Tuesday...
(The Guardian http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8GBQJVTwtTVx4DBgQBBw)

Is Texas Ready for Hurricane Harvey?

Hurricane Ike, a storm that struck the Texas Gulf Coast in 2008, was the kind of event that's often described as a wake-up call. Hurricane Harvey, which is expected to strike near Corpus Christi early Friday, could show whether the region actually woke up. Harvey is expected to make landfall as  a Category 3 storm, with winds of at least 111 miles per hour—the most powerful storm to strike the mainland U.S. since 2005...
(The Atlantic  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8GBQJUTwtTVx4DBgQBBw)

USA, Fed, T-Bonds: The US federal level will undergo a budgetary slimming

The United States and Europe present striking similarities in their destinies. The way Brexit (itself a negative event) manages to free an EU paralysed by vast structural dysfunctions; Trump's election (so traumatic for the Americans) probably provides an opportunity to redeem the country (and its partners) from a stifling allegiance system. We have repeatedly shown to what extent Trump's America freed Europe from a structural transatlantic link which had become archaic and had been stifling the US as much as Europe. In this article, our aim is to show that the future reopens also internally for the US, a country suffocated for too long under the burden of the anachronistic responsibilities of a master-of-the-world-America...
(GEAB Bulletin 116 http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8GAgsdAAlTGlEHBwUB)

India and China are ending a months-long border standoff

India and China have agreed to an “expeditious disengagement” of troopsin a disputed border area where their soldiers have been locked in a stand-off for more than two months, India's foreign ministry said on Monday. The decision comes ahead of a summit of the BRICS nations - a grouping that also includes Brazil, Russia and South Africa - in China next month, which Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to attend...
(Business Insider  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8GBQJXTwtTVx4DBgQBBw)

China's Difficult Global Integration

After the collapse of the Soviet bloc, China accelerated its repositioning in relation to the rest of the world. From the 1990s on, this huge country strengthened the broad and slow process of systemic transition based on a principle of gradual compatibility with the international system. In economic terms, this is what we call the transition towards the principles of the “western style” market economy, implemented, with the agreement of the Communist Party, by a generation of openly “reformist” economists, among whom the prominent representatives Wu Jinglian[1] or Zhou Xiaochuan[2] (current governor of the People's Bank of China)...
(GEAB Bulletin 111  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8GAgsdAAlTGlEHBwUB)

HRW: Satellite data show fires burning in Rakhine state

Satellite data accessed by a rights body shows widespread fires burning in at least 10 areas in Myanmar's Rakhine state, following a military crackdown on the country's Muslim Rohingya population. Residents and activists have have accused soldiers of shooting indiscriminately at unarmed Rohingya men, women and children and carrying out arson attacks...
(Aljazeera http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8GBQJWTwtTVx4DBgQBBw)

Russia Offers Emergency Bank Aid to Prevent Otkritie Contagion

Russia's central bank moved to contain a slow-motion banking crisis, offering support to other lenders after announcing the takeover of the largest institution yet. Bank Otkritie FC, Russia's biggest private lender a month ago, is the first bank to be taken over by a fund created so that the central bank can carry out rescues without private investors. While the emergency funding is intended to calm the market, Otkritie's troubles signal that Russia's banking system is still suffering from the recession that ended late last year...

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