lunes, 8 de enero de 2018

2018/01/04 - Political Anticipation - A LEAP Press review (GEAB special)

Enjoy the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin of December! 
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A roaring 120th: Evaluation 2017, Bitcoin, Israel… Somewhere between dream and nightmareAnother year is ending. The 12th year for us… and for some of you as GEAB readers. As it goes with Decembers, it is time to take a break, to ponder the road we have travelled, to question the relevance of pursuing, and to ask ourselves what research orientations to give to this coming year 2018. By the way we invite you to run the same retrospective in your own activity domains… Our annual evaluation is, of course, central to this reflection: a 75% success rate according to our assessment of the “36 trends of the year 2017” we identified last January; something which comforts us on the accurate view of the “map of the year to come” we put on the table 11 months ago. All in all: . Yes, the international and European governance systems have entered the final stages of their huge crises of legitimacy and efficiency, as they registered de-financing shocks and resounding failures such as the recent WTO void result ... Read the entire Public Announcement
"The Bitcoin Reserve Act 2018"
Our team's position on Bitcoin has always been based on a feeling of distrust. Though, we admit that digital currencies are clearly part of the future. Our caution comes from the structurally speculative nature of Bitcoin. If this feature makes this "currency" so attractive and turns it into a flagship of the expansion of e-currencies, at the same time, it is its Achilles heel that make us say that one day, more or less brutally, state structures will put an end to this witchcraft. They have the power to do so, admittedly. China has shut down overnight Bitcoin trading platforms and banned purchase among its citizens, although two-thirds of Bitcoin miners live on its territory. South Korea just followed the example, more or less..GEAB No 120 / Read more
Israel-Palestine: Somewhere between dream and nightmare
We can not help going back to the Middle East this month, simply because what is happening now looks so much like we had been anticipating for several years and announced at the beginning of 2017 in our list of "up and down trends": Saudi Arabia's emergence as a new strong player in the region, Turkey's independence, switch from Israel to Daesh as regional enemy, game change with Russia's return, waning US influence... As argued in the last issue of the GEAB, the Middle East of the end of 2017 is very different from that of the end of 2016. After having been world's hot news in the 1980-90, we all preferred to forget about the Palestinian issue, this burning point dating back to the 20th century. And, over the horizon of this Palestinian question, there is still the face-to-face issue between Israel and Iran, Damocles' sword hanging more than ever above the fate of the region. Here two topics, the regional transformation of which makes it possible to hope for a resolution in the short term... GEAB No 120 / Read more
An evaluation of our anticipations for 2017 (drawn from GEAB No 111 of January 2017): 75% successful
Each year in December, we release an assessment of our trend expectations presented last January. This time, we end up with a final score of 27 out of 36, meaning a 75% success, exactly the same percentage as in 2016.
Dollar - End of the exceptional status : As anticipated by our experts, the US Dollar Index lost nearly 10% since the beginning of the year, following Donald Trump's policy of no-interfering to let the dollar slip "smoothly". This weaker dollar is accompanied by a takeover of the Fed, knowing in September after the announcement of Stanley Fischer's resignation (Vice-President of the Fed), 4 seats of governors + the Fed presidency (5 out of 7 therefore) were to be filled after Trump's election. Since October, several nominations were publicly announced: Jerome Powell, financier and Republican, to replace Yellen as Fed President from February 2018 on; Randal Quarles, financier and Republican, as Vice President of the Executive Board, and Marvin Goodfriend, economist and a known critic of Yellen's policy... All three argue that it is time to rethink some financial regulation decisions taken and implemented after the crisis... What a blessing for Trump...
GEAB No 120 / Read more
Investments, trends and recommendations
Gas: Something new East of Mediterranean
In 2018, we see promising prospects in relation to the gigantic Levant Basin fields, which border a whole group of enemy countries and the most explosive region of the world (Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt), reason why the fields’ exploitation is most delicate. However, on the side of Lebanon, the operating agreement has just been released after a number of uncertainties, in the context of negotiations over the Israeli-Palestinian affair (free access to the fields from the side of Israel against disarmament of Hezbollah from the Lebanese side). The consortium Total(FR)-Eni (IT)-Novatek(UK) wins the contract. Whilst the enemies find common ground to share the jackpot, the Eastern Mediterranean gas turns into real windfall for countries in great economic difficulties. First and foremost Greece puts all its energy to become the entrance point of pipelines and LNG containers from all over the world to Europe and the Balkans...
GEAB No 120 / Read more

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