jueves, 19 de abril de 2018

2018/04/19 - Political Anticipation - A GEAB by LEAP Press review

The Indian development: A social, political and geopolitical bombIn view of Narendra Modi's very probable re-election in 2019, it is time to take stock of the Indian Prime Minister's first term; a somewhat mixed balance sheet, both economically and politically. The partial failure of the demonetisation scheme, the numerous SME bankruptcies, the prospect of a rural exodus of nearly 600 million people over the next two decades, the formation of oligarchic businesses, the clear authoritarian drift in the way of governing, growing inter-religious violent acts and rising inequalities are all presenting a worrying image of the future for this huge country which dreams of outperforming China in less than twenty years. To do this, India will need to rely on foreign investments (FDI - Foreign Direct Investment, to be threatened by prospects of country insecurity) whilst simultaneously maintaining some protectionism. Modi's India is full of paradoxes... (Read the public announcement for free / GEAB 124)
A mixed assessment of India's 2016 demonetisation scheme The major demonetisation scheme is far from having achieved its objectives as part of the reform of the economic structure of Indian society. Its main merit is to have pushed a large proportion of India’s citizens to open a bank account for the first time (about half of the population). Announced on 8th November 2016, to everyone's surprise, including the bankers’, the scheme stipulated that all 500 and 1000-rupee notes (representing more than 80% of the currency in circulation ) were to be withdrawn from the market. The population was given 50 days to either deposit those notes in bank accounts or exchange them for new notes... (Read the confidential report / GEAB 124)
Towards a eurozone managed by intergovernmentalismThe construction of a federal structure for the eurozone got off to a bad start. The vision of the French government to strengthen the structure of the monetary union by creating new eurozone institutions, particularly a Ministry of Finance with its own budget and a convergence of business tax rates, already seemed like a somewhat limited ambition given what is at stake. That said, it was a first step towards building the infrastructure needed for the good functioning of the common currency...(Read the confidential report / GEAB 124)
The Middle East and Pax SaudianaSaudi Arabia has recently sent a significant signal concerning the establishment of a ‘New Middle East’, perfectly in line with all our anticipations for this world region. Let’s take a look at this move. At the beginning of March, Mohammed Ben Salman (aka MBS) visited Egypt as part of his first official visit abroad since his appointment as Crown Prince of the Kingdom last June . As everyone knows, the Governor Al-Sisi's Egypt is a Saudi protectorate. Moreover, the instructions given by the Egyptian presidency allowed MBS to be welcomed in Cairo with banners like ‘Welcome to your second country’. It couldn’t have been more obvious... (Read the confidential report / GEAB 124)
Listening to the weak signals of trends in a changing world: our selectionThree times a year, the GEAB offers its readers a selection of ‘weak signals’ consisting of brief alerts in a variety of sectors (environment, finance, technology, geopolitics, etc.), revealing profound changes which together offer an ‘impressionist’ picture of the future. Here is our latest selection...
Psychometrics: Cambridge Analytica is not something new and Facebook was not its first transgression in this area. But the scandal is reinforcing the belief that free things also have a price in digital markets. Personal data, rather than money, is the main currency in this case. Your ‘psychometric’ profile (your user behaviour, your likes and dislikes, your posts, your friends) is much more saleable and profitable, not only for Facebook, but also for all the companies that track your searches on computers, mobile phones, applications, and elsewhere on the Internet... (Read the confidential report / GEAB 124)

Investments, trends and recommendations

Oil / Gas: Good news for the producing countries
The announcements about attacks on Syria, followed by the trilateral US-GB-FR attack itself, have raised bench mark oil prices to their highest in the last two years. This is good news for Saudi Arabia, but also for Russia, Iran and all the producing countries, who are now earning unanticipated amounts in foreign currencies. Nonetheless, our team remains firm on the anticipation of an end to peak oil (explained in the last issue particularly) and an imminent decrease (before summer) of oil prices, unless the situation in Syria degenerates...(Read the confidential report / GEAB 124)

Iran: Not much longerThree items of news coming from Iran seem to indicate that the mullahs' regime is at an end and should imminently fall: • President Rouhani has declared he is ready to block the Telegram messaging App used by 60% of the Iranians – not likely to be successful for lack of alternatives. • Major capital leakages from Iran have been recorded, with nearly 30 billion dollars in one year. • The Rial has lost a third of its value since the beginning of the year. This led the reformists of the Iranian parliament to demand the resignation of both the Prime Minister and the governor of the Iranian Central Bank... (Read the confidential report / GEAB 124)
Frontier markets: Opportunities in sightThis is one of our weak signals. The frontier markets provide investors with good growth prospects widening the range of opportunities and benefits, thanks to new crypto-investment techniques such as ICOs. This makes it possible to circumvent the risks and obstacles of shareholding (both for the State and for investors). The Asian markets offer great opportunities, such as Vietnam which, in 2017, launched no less than 40 IPO operations to open its public companies to private markets . For example, the HAPRO operation on the Hanoi Trade Corporation was a great success, exceeding the expectations of the Vietnamese state with a gain of 42.56 million dollars more than the called amount... (Read the confidential report / GEAB 124)

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