martes, 9 de febrero de 2016

2016/02/09 Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

Future banking crisis in Europe: hard landing in a new reality
The beginning of 2016 is marked by the announcements of a “cataclysm”, expected to happen this year on the stock markets. What is different now compared to 2008 is that, this time, it is not some contrarian analysts who say so (the way LEAP did in its early publication of GEAB in February 2006) and who launch these alerts. It is the high ranking institutions which shout out loud: BIS, Fed (through Richard Fisher’s voice of the Dallas Federal Bank), the IMF, and some very important banks: Société Générale, RBS and UBS.. (GEAB no 101)

What is the GEAB bulletin? The number one publication on political and financial anticipation
Economy, strategy, finance, politics, all fields are affected by the major systemic transition. GEAB intends to be one major instrument enabling you to make the right decisions based on a clear understanding of the international context, on the precise identification of future-bearer tracks and on reliable analyses of the means to enter these tracks.This prediction gives the tone to all GEAB publications, which provide financial, political, academic and strategic decision-makers and advisers with mind-opening monthly analyses. Subscribe now and be one step ahead the news ! (GEAB by LEAP - subscription form)

2015 - The big fall of Western real estate
The crisis has demonstrated the fragility of Western real estate markets, raising many questions amongst the large audience that is interested in the residential real estate market, either as a buyer, seller, owner, tenant, business or private individual. It has also allowed everyone to become aware of the complex links between the different national real estate markets and international developments in the economy, finance, foreign exchange and interest rates. Finally, it makes sense to many that real estate markets have reached an historic turning point. With this book the two authors, Sylvain Perifel and Philippe Schneider, fill this gap in the Western world real estate market, for which they have indisputably discovered common trends. They successfully mix, with an easy style which is always easy to follow, accurate analysis, critical data, closely reasoned argument, forecasts with not only dates but numbers... (Anticipolis)

How Europe's Banks Got Hit by a Perfect Storm in Five Charts
A stock plunge by Europe’s banks deepened Monday, while credit markets showed investors are most worried in years about lenders’ bond risks. “It’s a perfect storm,” said David Moss, who helps to oversee more than $237 billion of assets as head of European equities at BMO Global Asset Management in London. “People think ‘the share price must be telling me something’ and that induces ongoing panic. It’s been a pretty indiscriminate selloff...” (Bloomberg)

Iran wants euro payment for new and outstanding oil sales – source
Iran wants to recover tens of billions of dollars it is owed by India and other buyers of its oil in euros and is billing new crude sales in euros, too, looking to reduce its dependence on the US dollar following last month’s sanctions relief. A source at state-owned National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC) told Reuters that Iran will charge in euros for its recently signed oil contracts with firms including French oil and gas major Total, Spanish refiner Cepsa and Litasco, the trading arm of Russia’s Lukoil... (Times of Malta)

Gold's Up, Dollar's Down: That's a Signal
The dollar is headed down. It's headed to its worst week since 2009, according to reports. I spoke about the dollar late last year. I said I was bearish and that the dollar would start to head lower after the Fed hiked rates. I also said gold would bottom and start to rise. Gold's currently at a three-month high and headed higher. Not many people had these views, if any. They thought the end of eight years of super-accommodative Fed policy would be the beginning of epochal deflation... (The Street)

Turkey's Erdogan threatened to flood Europe with migrants: Greek website
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan threatened in November to flood Europe with migrants if European Union leaders did not offer him a better deal to help manage the Middle East refugee crisis, a Greek news website said on Monday. Publishing what it said were minutes of a tense meeting last November, the financial news website revealed deep mutual irritation and distrust in talks between Erdogan and the EU's two top officials... (Reuters)

US billionaire Michael Bloomberg announces possible presidential run
The billionaire former mayor of New York City has said he's considering throwing his hat in the ring. Last month it was reported his advisors had drafted plans for his candidacy. Michael Bloomberg confirmed on Monday he was considering running as an independent candidate, less than a day before the state of New Hampshire gears up to vote in its primary election... (Deutsche Welle)

German Industrial Production Unexpectedly Fell in December
German industrial production unexpectedly fell for a second month in December, a sign that a slowdown in major export markets is holding back factory activity despite strong domestic demand. Output, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 1.2 percent from November, when it declined by a revised 0.1 percent, data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed on Tuesday. The reading, which tends to be volatile, compares with a median estimate for a 0.5 percent increase in a Bloomberg survey of economists... (Bloomberg)

In blow to Ukraine’s reform hopes, top official resigns, citing corruption
In a blow to hopes that Ukraine will be able to overcome a decades-long struggle with corruption and mismanagement, the country’s Western-trained economy minister resigned Wednesday, saying he had been unable to beat back corruption. Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius said that he had come under pressure from senior allies of the country’s president to make patronage appointments in state-owned companies and to appoint unqualified deputies who would have overseen the most lucrative industries in Ukraine... (The Washington Post)

The Guardian view on North Korea’s rocket launch: China holds the key
Four weeks after carrying out its fourth underground nuclear test, North Korea has now successfully sent a satellite into space as well. Though some details remain unclear, the likelihood is that this is a test of a long-range rocket with potentially offensive capabilities. As such, it is both a violation of United Nations resolutions and bans on the use and development of such technology and another very clear setback to international efforts at pressuring the Kim Jung-un regime to end its weapons programme. A rogue state just got a bit more rogue... (The Guardian)

Finland Lashes Out at ‘Sub-Optimal’ Response to Migrant Crisis
Finnish Finance Minister Alexander Stubb urged European Union members to keep their borders open and work together to tackle the region’s biggest influx of refugees since World War II. “We should be looking for European solutions, not national solutions -- and by this I mean we need more integration, not less integration,” Stubb said in an interview in Helsinki... (Bloomberg)

An Indian biotech company has been developing Zika vaccines for over a year
Krishna Ella never expected to be holding the key to fighting a new global health emergency. Yet, his Indian firm, Bharat Biotech, has become the first in the world to have two vaccine candidates against the rapidly spreading Zika virus, which has infected millions of people in Latin America and has the potential to spread worldwide... (Quartz India)

India blocks Zuckerberg's free net app
India's telecoms regulator has blocked Facebook's Free Basics internet service app as part of a ruling in favour of net neutrality. The scheme offered free access to a limited number of websites. However, it was opposed by supporters of net neutrality who argued that data providers should not favour some online services over others. The free content included selected local news and weather forecasts, the BBC, Wikipedia and some health sites... (BBC)

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