miércoles, 4 de mayo de 2016

2016-05-04 Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

2006 - 2016. After ten years of activity, the GEAB's anticipation work is more successful than ever !

Rooted in European history and networks, based on an original political anticipation method, driven by LEAP's desire for independence and relevance, brave and free, the GEAB has been offering, for more than 10 years now, the interpretation of the crisis which, amid the totally chaotic media as well as political response, has remained rational, original, consistent and regularly validated. The GEAB is unique, stronger than ever, always at your service for more analyses and forecasts of the crisis...
(Re/subscribe to the GEAB and get the Anniversary Gift, an extra 1-year free subscription for a friend  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8FDQQdAgpXGlEHBwUB  in any of the six available languages)

Oil, a sign of the times

In the mainstream media, cheap oil is an opportunity for American consumers, of course (and never a problem for the country also presented as - wonder of wonders - the present day world's number one producer), but no one to say the same of Europe, let alone of China (which is only having a finger pointed at it as being the number one consumer/polluter, having surpassed the United States). Yet, these regions have everything to gain from an inexpensive barrel, since they are only consumers and not producers. Despite this, official concerns weigh on a country still recording at least a yearly 6% growth, and now having cheap available energy (and raw materials). Strange, isn't it? The main element is ignored, though, which is that the heart of the Western financial system, the petrodollar, is faltering. With a global consumption of 90 million barrels per day, the generated money flows were 3,300 billion dollars a year, while a barrel was situated at $100 ...
(Excerpt from the GEAB bulletin No 101 http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8CDQUdAgpXGlEHBwUB)

The Age of Cheap Oil and Natural Gas Is Just Beginning

Fracking and horizontal drilling have sent supplies through the roof and prices through the floor, and things are likely to stay that way. We believe the period of excessively high oil prices has come to an end. The international spread of two revolutions will assure much ampler oil supplies, and will deliver prices far below the highs that reigned between the end of 2010 and mid-2014...
(The Scientific American  http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8MAwodAgpXGlEHBwUB)

Euro-BRICS YLP: When highly educated youth get to know about Franck Biancheri and his political message, and transfer his principles and methods to the global level

After one whole week (25/04-29/04) of team-building and brainstorming in “La Pepinière” (in Chatenay sur Seine, south of Paris), the Euro-BRICS Young Leaders Platform was welcomed on Saturday 30th/04 by the Indian Embassy to present its findings on “bridging cooperation between European and BRICS countries”. The conference was organised by LEAP and AAFB, in the framework of Franck Biancheri networks, in collaboration with the Embassy of India and was hosted by Mr. Manish Prabhat, Deputy Ambassador, Indian Embassy in Paris...
(Franck-Biancheri.eu http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8MAwsdAgpXGlEHBwUB )

Investors Boost Gold Assets in World's Top ETF by Most Since `11

Investors are piling back into gold, and they're coming in droves. Holdings in SPDR Gold Shares, the world's largest exchange-traded fund backed by gold, surged 20.8 metric tons on Monday, the biggest one-day expansion since 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show. About $7.1 billion in new money poured into SPDR Gold this year, the most of any ETF tracked by Bloomberg around the world, as holdings soared to the highest since 2013. Bullion prices traded above $1,300 an ounce for a second straight day, before closing lower...
(Bloomberg http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8MDAIdAgpXGlEHBwUB )

Banks now go the extra mile with the clean-up act

In November 2014, when Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan tweaked the expression ‘rose by any other name would smell as sweet' from Shakespeare's Romeo and Juliet and said ‘NPA by any other name smells as bad', bankers were left fuming. They wondered how the regulator could show banks in a bad light. Now, 18 months later, banks are realising the benefit of calling a spade a spade...
(Economic Times http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8MDAMdAgpXGlEHBwUB)

Since when is TTIP not a BIG deal?

From “most important leak ever” to “much ado about nothing”, the analyses from different commentators of yesterday's TTIP revelations couldn't be wider-ranging. In a blog post, Trade commissioner Cecilia Malmström tried to soft-pedal the importance of the leaks by saying that the consolidated texts, leaked by Greenpeace, only reflected “each side's negotiating position”...
(Euractiv http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8MDAAdAgpXGlEHBwUB)

Doubts rise over TTIP as France threatens to block EU-US deal

Doubts about the controversial EU-US trade pact are mounting after the French president threatened to block the deal. François Hollande said on Tuesday he would reject the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership “at this stage” because France was opposed to unregulated free trade. Earlier, France's lead trade negotiator had warned that a halt in TTIP talks “is the most probable option”...
(The Guardian http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8MDAEdAgpXGlEHBwUB

Euro zone retail sales fall more than expected in March

Euro zone retail sales fell more than expected in March against February as consumers cut purchases of food, drinks and tobacco, the European Union's statistics office said on Wednesday. Retail sales, a proxy for household spending, decreased 0.5 percent in March month-on-month in the 19-country currency bloc, Eurostat said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a much smaller decrease of 0.1 percent...
(Reuters http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8MDAYdAgpXGlEHBwUB)

The Turkey deal is proof that Europe can hold its nose and adapt to reality - populists must follow suit

It is measure of the muddle that the European Union has got itself into over immigration policy that even when it gets its act together - as it has belatedly with its ugly-yet-pragmatic EU-Turkey migration deal - it still finds itself being pilloried from both the Left and the Right.
(The Telegraph http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8MDAcdAgpXGlEHBwUB)

Russia offers free land to all citizens willing to move to the Far East

Call it the Muscovite version of "manifest destiny." On Monday, President Vladimir Putin signed into law a bill that offers every Russian citizen a tract of land in their country's remote Far East. "All citizens will be entitled to apply for up to hectare of land in the Kamchatka, Primorye, Khabarovsk, Amur, Magadan and Sakhalin regions, the republic of Sakha, or the Jewish and Chukotka autonomous districts...
(Washington Post http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8MDAQdAgpXGlEHBwUB)

Saudi Arabia looks to bring in billions of foreign dollars by planning stock market reforms

Saudi Arabia announced a string of reforms to its stock market that could attract billions of dollars of fresh foreign money and smooth sales of state assets as the kingdom grapples with damage to its finances caused by low oil prices. When Riyadh opened its bourse to direct foreign investment last June, it took a cautious approach, imposing tight ownership limits and minimum qualifications for overseas institutions to reduce the risk of them destabilizing the market...
(The Financial Post http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8MDAUdAgpXGlEHBwUB)

Western real estate: a market of contrasts

We must mention one of the main factors of the renewed vigour of the real estate market: the liquidity injections, made by the central banks (ECB being the first). These banks, by buying state bonds, are pushing the rates of these bonds toward negative ground, bringing along with them the rate of home loans, historically low now. And, far from diminishing its "support", the ECB has strengthened it, and it is unlikely it could change its course in the near future. Low rates will therefore last for one, two, three years - hard to tell for sure, but in the short term, the trend will continue to be that of low interest rates...
(Excerpt from the GEAB 104 http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8CDQUdAgpXGlEHBwUB)

China's housing market on track for soft landing

China's housing market is on track for a soft landing as cities at different levels begin to promote balanced market development in line with their conditions.The home prices in major cities have been growing at a slower pace. According to statistics released by the China Index Academy on May 1, China's four biggest cities -- Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen -- were no longer in the lead in rising prices...
(China.org http://www.leap2020.net/newsletter/lt.php?id=Mh8MDAodAgpXGlEHBwUB)

Brazil proscecutor calls for obstruction of justice probe into President Rousseff

Reports said Brazil's state attorney wants President Rousseff questioned for allegedly trying to stall a corruption investigation. She insisted the scandal would not affect the Olympics as she set off the torch relay. Local media reported late on Tuesday that Brazil's top prosecutor filed a request to investigate President Dilma Rousseff for possible obstruction of justice. The case would be the first time Rousseff has been directly implicated in the sprawling corruption scandal surrounding state-owned oil giant Petrobras...

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