jueves, 12 de mayo de 2016

2016-05-12 Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

The GEAB 105 is coming up in a few days ! Don't miss it
The next monthly confidential bulletin edited by LEAP will be released on May 15-17 (according to the language version) and we would absolutely not want you to miss it ! Here are some very interesting topics to be discussed. Russia: What surprises to expect in 2016? Puerto Rico: A more significant bankruptcy than it seems. United States: The British model as future trend. Europe: New experiments in the pensions sector. Middle East: Cross regional visions... and also our investment recommendations on Mercosur, gold, oil, the dollar. (GEAB access quick link)

Deutsche Bank Sees Ruble Dip Temporary on Oil, Sanctions Outlook
The ruble weakened for a second day, trimming a three-month rally that Deutsche Bank AG says has yet to run its course. While the currency depreciated 0.7 percent to 66.4030 per dollar by 5:40 p.m. in Moscow, Deutsche Bank strategists said the ruble is in a "prime position" to build on its 11 percent advance in 2016. The bank based its projection on a view that crude, Russia’s main export earner, will "grind higher" and for penalties imposed over the conflict in Ukraine to be lifted within "a year or so."... (Bloomberg)

Stuck with dangerous dollar dominance
The world is getting an object lesson on the problems of having one dominant global currency and even the supposed prime beneficiary, the United States, can see the downside. Alarming bouts of volatility in world financial markets over the past 12 months have been rooted in a fear of what happens when a world with its highest-ever peacetime debt pile faces even a hint of higher interest rates... (Reuters)

2016 – US dollar warning : the beautiful isolation of the « global reference currency »
Following our monetary research work under the form of a surveillance of several months, our team is worried again about the US dollar. After a calming two year time, the dollar is heckled again within today’s new multi monetary world. Surprised by the conclusions of its own analyses, presented here below exclusively to you, our team of experts wishes to warn you, the GEAB readers, about the possible danger threatening the dollar. 2016 could very well be the year when the dollar wall will fall… (Extract from the GEAB No 101)

Wars displace record 40.8 million people: report
Middle East conflicts account for more than half of the 8.6 million people displaced by fighting in 2015, according to a new report. The total number of internally displaced people has jumped to a record high. The number of internally displaced people rose to a record 40.8 million people in 2015, according to a joint report released Wednesday by the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) and the Geneva-based Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC)... (Deutsche Welle)

Panama Papers: Saudi Arabia King Sponsored Netanyahu’s Campaign
Isaac Herzog, member of the Knesset and Chairman of the Israeli Labor party, revealed that Saudi king Salman bin Abdulaziz financed the election campaign of Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. “In March 2015, King Salman has deposited eighty million dollars to support Netanyahu’s campaign via a Syrian-Spanish person named Mohamed Eyad Kayali... (Middle East Observer)

UK industry in recession for third time in eight years
UK industry fell back into recession as it shrank for the second quarter in a row, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It is the third time UK industry has been in recession in eight years. Although industrial production rose 0.3% from February to March, it fell 0.4% both in the first three months of 2016 and in the last three of 2015... (BBC)
Clinton suffers primary setback as Trump marches toward November
U.S. Democratic White House candidate Hillary Clinton lost the primary to Bernie Sanders in economically struggling West Virginia on Tuesday, possibly signaling trouble for her in industrial states in the November general election. The defeat slowed Clinton's march to the nomination, but she is still heavily favored to become the Democratic candidate in the Nov. 8 election to face presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump... (Reuters)

The migrant crisis will never end. It is part of the modern world
Sometimes, one fact goes a long way towards explaining a global crisis. Behind the rubber dinghies laden with desperate people washing up on European beaches and the refugee camps spread across the deserts of Jordan - or, for that matter, the plains of Chad – lies a remarkable figure... (The Telegraph)
Puerto Rico: An opportunity and a warning
Puerto Rico is in serious financial trouble. It has been almost a year since Gov. Alejandro Garcia Padilla announced he did not expect the commonwealth would be able to pay its $72 billion debt when due. The scope of potential economic damage from the island’s financial crisis is becoming clear, and the deadline for action is short... (Washington Times)
Living in The Glass Cage: why our drive to automation needs an urgent re-think
Self-driving cars, robotics and automation may sound utopian to you. But author Nicholas Carr says we're in danger of ceding too much responsibility, including complex moral choices, to machines. Nicholas Carr: We're getting to the point when technology companies have the technical ability to begin developing robots that act autonomously in the world through advances in machine learning and machine vision... (Deutsche Welle)

Uber’s deal with U.S. drivers looks cheap
Uber is getting off cheaply in its deal with disgruntled U.S. drivers. Treated as employees rather than independent contractors, the ride-hailing service might have had to pay them as much as $730 million more, according to court papers. That makes a $100 million settlement of two class-action lawsuits look like peanuts... (Reuters)
Recession May Loom for Next U.S. President No Matter Who That Is
Talk about a poisoned chalice. No matter who is elected to the White House in November, the next president will probably face a recession. The 83-month-old expansion is already the fourth-longest in more than 150 years and starting to show some signs of aging as corporate profits peak and wage pressures build. It also remains vulnerable to a shock because growth has been so feeble, averaging just about 2 percent since the last downturn ended in June 2009... (Bloomberg)

India has trade deficit with 27 countries for last three years: Nirmala Sitharaman
India has a trade deficit with as many as 27 major countries, including China, Australia, Iraq and Iran, during the last three years. With these countries, India has trade deficit continuously during the last three years, Commerce and Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a written reply to the Lok Sabha... (Economic Times)

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