2016/05/25 - Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

What exactly is the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin? The GEAB is a monthly confidential and exclusive letter edited by LEAP and delivered worldwide upon annual subscription thanks to its partner Editions Anticipolis. It is an affordable, decision and analysis support tool intended to help you understand future world developments, foresee trends and take wise actions. If your work or research projects need political anticipation and financial focus, decision making and trustworthy expertise, you definitely need the GEAB. Check our latest analyses on Russia's possible power surprises by the end of 2016, Middle East's glorious paths or Puerto Rico's crisis solutions, and many more... (GEAB subscription quick link) "A Manual of political anticipation" What is political anticipation (and what it isn’t)? What is its use? What are the tools, principles and rules which shape it? What are its limits? These are the questions which this small manual written by Marie-Helene Caillol will try to answer... (Editions Anticipolis) Eurozone debt crisis isn’t Italy’s biggest worry The eurozone debt crisis has taken a heavy toll on Italy. The country’s economy has shrunk by around 10% since 2007, marked by a triple-dip recession. Output has regressed to levels not seen in more than a decade. Overall unemployment is around 12%-13, with youth unemployment around 40%. Consumption and investment are both weak. Smaller enterprises — the country’s backbone ... (Market Watch) Greece Wins Pledge for Debt Relief as IMF Bows to Euro Plan Greece’s creditors reached a preliminary accord to ease the country’s debt burden but left the important details to be hammered out after Germany’s federal election next year. At a meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Brussels that ended early Wednesday, and paved the way for a 10.3 billion-euro ($11.5 billion) aid payout, the International Monetary Fund retreated... (Bloomberg) EU referendum poll: pensioners, Tory voters and men are deserting the Brexit campaign The majority of older voters, Conservative supporters and men are now backing the campaign to stay in the EU following a collapse in support for Brexit, a new exclusive poll for the Telegraph shows. The poll finds that the Remain campaign now has a 13-point lead with just one month until the referendum... (The Telegraph) How The U.S. Dollar Influences Oil Prices Crude oil has reached a critical technical level, which is likely to test the resolve of the bulls to push prices higher. The bulls have a favorable tailwind with production outages reducing the supply glut. Till about two weeks ago, the drop in the U.S. dollar was also supportive of the crude oil prices, but since then, the dollar has recovered, putting pressure on the crude oil prices... (Oilprice) The Swiss mull paying people $2,500 a month for doing nothing Switzerland's unconditional basic income initiative proposes $30,000-a-year payout for everyone. The country will vote June 5 on whether the government should introduce an unconditional basic income to replace various welfare benefits. Although the initiators of the plan haven't stipulated how large the payout should be, they've suggested the sum of 2,500 francs ($2,500) for an adult and a quarter of that for a child... (Economic Times) Tough challenges ahead for Austria’s president The path to the presidency was bruising enough. But the challenge facing Alexander van der Bellen now is even more formidable. Austria’s president-elect must seek to unite a country right through the middle of which a vitriolic presidential campaign has chiselled a deep cleft. Speaking on Monday (23 May) after his victory was confirmed, Van der Bellen pledged to address the “differences” the election had exposed. That, however, will be easier said than done... (EUObserver) Oregon ban on commercial water bottling could leave industry high and dry The bottled water industry, thirsty for new sources as demand grows, is coming up dry in some places as communities around the country push back against bottling plants, citing drought concerns and environmental impacts. This week, voters in Hood River County, Ore., approved the nation’s first ban on commercial water bottling in a measure that passed overwhelmingly Tuesday... (Market Watch) New York, London on Notice as China Covets Commodity Pricing China has put the world’s traditional financial centers on notice that it wants to develop its raw material markets as hubs for setting prices, seeking to marry the country’s commercial heft with a much greater say in determining how much commodities cost... (Bloomberg) Global stocks climb as Brexit, Grexit risks ease Easing concerns over several major global risks helped stock markets rise robustly for a second day on Wednesday, underpinned by gains in oil and metals prices and data showing the U.S. economy can deal with a hike in interest rates. Traders say several polls showing Britain will vote strongly to stay in the European Union in a referendum in June have done more than just support sterling, up 5 percent in trade-weighted terms from lows hit in April... (Reuters) As Brexit vote looms, Brits scramble for German passports With British voters heading to the polls in June to decide whether to remain in the European Union, some of their compatriots in Germany are hedging their bets - and applying for citizenship. Naomi Conrad reports. When, some six weeks ago, Natalia Dannenberg was granted German citizenship, she and her husband opened a bottle of wine over dinner to celebrate what, she says, is "really a kind of security blanket": Applying for a German passport hadn't really been a priority before, the eloquent 35-year-old who weighs her words carefully... (Deutsche Welle) Understanding Technocracy: The dilemma of institutional ‘independence’ in national and transnational democracy, By Diego Cimino Understanding the institutional architecture of today’s societies is a complex operation. In the last 70 years, the creation and development of the international order as well as the multidimensional effects of globalisation have generated two phenomena: an institutional surplus and the pyramidal ‘verticalisation’ of decision-making... (LEAP) A few more thoughts on China’s economic credibility China just reported April economic numbers and observers again rushed to say what they mean. This is a well-worn issue, but there are two reasons from just the past week to indicate that most of what Beijing reports about the economy doesn’t mean anything... (AEI)