jueves, 19 de mayo de 2016

2016/05/19 - Political Anticipation - The LEAP Press review

Peace, global governance, European integration, Middle-East, OPEC: Emerging of the multipolar world imposes a change of method
Since 2006, when the GEAB bulletin was launched, our team has placed the emerging multipolar world at the heart of the global systemic crisis. The effects of the growing relativity of the American power were the first visible signs of a vast global reconfiguration. Then, in 2009, with the creation of the BRIC(S) club, the new players started to impose themselves in an organized manner on the international stage, really giving substance to this concept of a multipolar world. That said, the strategy of the emerging powers first consisted of creating a common front aimed at reforming the existing international institutions, in particular through the G20.. Initially, the new powers mostly intended to be recognized and integrated into the international architecture built by the West in the twentieth century... (GEAB 105 - the confidential letter edited by LEAP) 

Last quarter 2016: Vladimir Putin quits the Russian presidency
We are risking a bold anticipation here, but at least does it provide an interesting angle on the EU’s most important issue since 2014: the dramatically decaying relationship with its closest and most powerful neighbour, Russia. Moreover, as mentioned in our Manual of Political Anticipation[1], the anticipatory exercise consists of “thinking the unthinkable”… and bringing out arguments. Several considerations, the first one being that the Russian intervention in Syria is a major game-changer, lead us to the following hypothesis: “By the beginning of 2017, Vladimir Putin will announce early presidential elections in which he will not be running.” Find the list of facts and considerations which have led our LEAP experts to make this assumption in the latest confidential letter ... (GEAB by LEAP)
The Russia-China Energy Marriage And The Multipolar World
Trade between Russia and China in the first quarter of the year grew 3.6 percent on the year, to $14.2 billion. A senior CNPC official has confirmed that the company is interested in buying a stake in Russia’s biggest oil company, Rosneft. Gazprom Neft, another energy giant, has been selling its crude to China in exchange for yuan rather than dollars since last year... (OilPrice.com)

USA 2017 - Independence is the right path for Puerto Rico
As part of our series of articles on the United States, knowing the elections are almost here, and deep socio-political changes are most probably on the way in this country, we will dedicate some time to study what the crisis in Puerto Rico says about the solidarity of the US union system. We will show to what extent new limits have been reached and are now imposing break-ups or changes, and we will anticipate that a break-up is the most probable hypothesis for that matter. Puerto Rico’s recent payment default and debt crisis may seem minor if we have observed the amount everyone is speaking about: around 80 to 100 billion dollars of public debt... (GEAB by LEAP (May, 2016))

Silicon Valley mocks Trump over his tech bubble warning
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Tuesday warned that a dangerous financial bubble has formed in the technology industry - and Silicon Valley responded with a collective eye roll. In a Reuters interview, the New York billionaire said technology start-ups that had never earned a profit were able to sell shares at very high prices, likening the situation to the overheated stock market in 2007... (Reuters)

Superforecasters See 24% Chance of Brexit as Economy Wins Out
As he wrestled with whether to push for Britain to abandon the European Union earlier this year, Michael Gove dedicated some time to reading a bestselling book on how to parse the future. Three months after the 48-year-old justice secretary put his political career on the line by breaking with the government to join the “Leave” campaign, those that helped inspire “Superforecasting... (Bloomberg)

Euronext Releases Its New Strategic Plan: “Agility for Growth”
Euronext announced its strategic plan “Agility for Growth, ” defining its growth ambitions to 2019. Under this plan, Euronext will enhance its agility in order to strengthen the resilience of its core business, to capture strategic opportunities and to grow in selected segments. The driver of this plan is to fulfil Euronext’s core mission: power pan-European capital markets to finance the real economy, while delivering value to shareholders... (Markets Media)

Germany Just Got Almost All of Its Power From Renewable Energy
Countries around Europe are building increasing amounts of renewable capacity in order to reduce their carbon emissions and boost supply security. Last year Denmark’s wind farms supplied 140 percent of demand, while the U.K. had no coal-fired power stations meeting electricity demand for about four hours on May 10 as a result of plant breakdowns... (Bloomberg)

Venezuela opposition slams ‘desperate’ Maduro state of emergency
Venezuela’s opposition on Saturday slammed a state of emergency decreed by President Nicolas Maduro and vowed to press home efforts to remove the leftist leader this year amid a grim economic crisis. Maduro on Friday night declared a 60-day state of emergency due to what he called plots from Venezuela and the United States to subvert him. He did not provide specifics. The measure shows Maduro is panicking as a push for a recall referendum against him gains traction with tired, frustrated Venezuelans, opposition leaders said during a protest in Caracas... (Reuters)

Serbia’s pro-EU transformation not yet guaranteed
There will have been quiet relief in Brussels that a solidly pro-EU parliament has just been re-elected in Serbia, and that the nation appears strongly committed to the reforms needed for entry. But, as ever, the devil is in the detail. In this case, the detail relates to the number 35... (EUObserver)

Zika virus could spread to Europe in coming months, says WHO
The Zika virus is expected to spread in Europe within the next few months, the World Health Organisation has said, although it has classified the risk of an outbreak at low to moderate. First seen in Brazil last year, the mosquito-borne virus has been detected in more than 50 countries and has been linked to thousands of cases of microcephaly, a rare birth defect marked by unusually small head size... (The Guardian)

Nissan to buy 34 percent stake in scandal-hit Mitsubishi Motors
Nissan Motor Co has agreed to buy a 34 percent stake in Mitsubishi Motors Corp, taking de facto control with a $2.2 billion bet that bails out its smaller, scandal-hit rival. The deal is a lifeline for Mitsubishi Motors, which is mired in its third scandal in two decades and has had $3 billion wiped off its market value after confessing to manipulating fuel economy data. But it should also be a boost for Nissan... (Daily Times)

China is raising troop strength on border with India: Pentagon
China is deploying more troops on the border with India while modernizing its nuclear force and improving its strike capabilities, the Pentagon has said, even as the Obama administration challenged Beijing’s assertion that New Delhi does not meet the criteria to be a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group... (Economic Times)

Middle East 2030: Three visions for one region
Today, while chaos is reigning in Syria and Iraq, three major protagonists emerge from the conflicted Middle East: Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey, three states involved in the Syrian conflict, with common interests regarding the Islamic State, but having different reactions with respect to the Syrian state; three states which have recently launched themselves in the conquest of another dimension, that of the future, of their future and of the future of this wide Middle East region.. (Read more in the GEAB 105)

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