martes, 19 de enero de 2016

2016/01/19 Political Anticipation - LEAP Press review

2016 - Red alert on the dollar, financial crisis, oil, banks… General strategic retreat in the perspective of an imminent “hard landing

Our team has chosen to place 2016 under the sign of a “general strategic retreat”, affecting all levels of social organization, starting of course with the national levels, but not only. This retreat (or fallback) will not yet represent in 2016 the end of the global mobility, of the international exchanges or of the internet, and the world will still be a global village this year. Nevertheless, we will see walls getting built, regulations being imposed, flows getting controlled, armies strengthened, markets fragmented … all this not on an international basis, since the failure of the global governance reform is striking, but on the basis of the only available political entities on the market: nation states, religious and ethnic groups, certain supra-national organizations...
(GEAB 101 - Public Announcement

World crisis. The Path to the World Afterwards (A book written by Franck

What conflicts can this world-after-the-crisis generate? How to prepare for monetary and economic upheavals coming up in the next few years? How can we and should we cope as Europeans? How will interact the emerging powers such as Brazil, India, Russia and China in the first place? What difficulties will these countries meet on their way up? How can our children position themselves to prepare for this world after, as citizens and as professionals? These are some of the questions that this book tries to answer by providing leads for reflection and action to the individual as much as to the group. Becaus this crisis we are experiencing is not only the end of the “world before”, it is also an unprecedented opportunity to rebuild a “world after”...

A world divided - Elites descend on Swiss Alps amid rising inequality

Politicians and business leaders gathering in the Swiss Alps this week face an increasingly divided world, with the poor falling further behind the super-rich and political fissures in the United States, Europe and the Middle East running deeper than at any time in decades. Just 62 people, 53 of them men, own as much wealth as the poorest half of the entire world population and the richest 1 percent own more than the other 99 percent put together...

Big banks brace for oil loans to implode

Firms on Wall Street helped bankroll America's energy boom, financing very expensive drilling projects that ended up flooding the world with oil. Now that the oil glut has caused prices to crash below $30 a barrel, turmoil is rippling through the energy industry and souring many of those loans...

China, The Locus of the Next Financial Crisis? Imploding Stock Markets,
Slowing Real Economy

What's happening in China? Is it becoming the locus of the next financial crisis? Some well positioned capitalists are beginning to suggest so, including no less than that guru of global hedge fund and financial speculators, George Soros. The Bank of Central Banks, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) in Geneva, is saying the same; so too are a growing list of research departments of major global banks ,like UBS and Societe General in Europe...
(Global Research

Global Financial Crisis Likely Averted……For Now

The stock bloodbath has ended, as indicated by Tuesday's trading in Europe, amidst optimistic anticipations of aggressive stimulus from Beijing and the US Federal Reserve, meaning another financial crisis will have to wait until the regulators run out of options...
(Sputnik International

Oil rebounds on record Chinese demand, oversupply caps gains

Brent crude oil prices rebounded about 3 percent on Tuesday from 12-years lows after data showed Chinese oil demand likely hit a record high in 2015, but the recovery was not expected to last amid warnings that the market would stay oversupplied this year. Analysts also attributed much of the bounce from under $28 a barrel to a brief short covering rally after oil prices crashed over 20 percent this year...

Schengen to fail in months if migration crisis not 'under control,' says

A top EU official has warned that the outcome of the migration crisis could lead to the EU failing "as a political project." The statement comes as Germany's FM said closing the country's borders is not a solution...

(Deutsche Welle

German minister criticises Merkel's 'friendly face' on migrants

Germany must be ready to "prepare a plan B" against the mass arrival of migrants and be ready to close its borders, German transport minister Alexander Dobrindt has said, in a direct challenge to chancellor Angela Merkel's policy. "We need a quick change in the situation," Dobrindt said...

US, EU warned of huge fallout if no data protection deal by January 31

The top US and European trade groups have warned their leaders of enormous fallout for businesses and customers if the two sides fail to reach a new deal on data transfers by end January. The European Court of Justice in October ruled that the EU-US "Safe Harbour" arrangement allowing firms to transfer European citizens' personal information to the United States was "invalid"...

Towards a Putinisation of Central Europe?

If the eurozone crisis stoked great divisions between northern and southern Europe, the ongoing migrant crisis has already led to sharp conflict between western and central Europe. While Germany under chancellor Angela Merkel, at least initially, pushed to welcome the refugees and institute an EU plan to redistribute them, many central European governments were overwhelmingly opposed to receiving them...

IEA Sees Risk of World Drowning in Oil

Global oil markets could “drown in oversupply,” sending prices even lower as demand growth slows and Iran revives exports with the end of sanctions, according to the International Energy Agency. The IEA trimmed 2016 estimates for global oil demand as China's economic expansion weakens and raised forecasts for supplies outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries...
(Bloomberg )

Iran vice-president hails new era after removal of sanctions

The lifting of sanctions on Iran on Saturday marks a new era in bilateral relations between Tehran and Washington, one of the country's vice-presidents has said, adding that further rapprochement is contingent on how the US goes about fulfilling its commitments under last summer's nuclear accord...
(The Guardian

America, Your Credit Rating Stinks ... Unless you live in Silicon Valley or
parts of New York and Chicago, in which case congratulations are in order.

They are home to the nation's credit elite, and they have another thing in common: the tech industry. Certain neighborhoods on the West Coast boast residents with some of the best credit, according to a new report by free credit score site Credit Sesame. Those zip codes1 include the main stomping grounds of Microsoft, Yahoo!, and Google...

Brazil Has Fallen Into Its Worst Recession Since 1930s

Brazil, world-famous for its carnival celebrations in Rio and elsewhere, is canceling the festivities this year. As the Financial Times reports, across the country towns and cities “are being forced to scrap the annual carnival parade as the country is braced for what is expected to be the worst recession since at least the 1930s.”...

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